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View Full Version : Am I getting the hang of when to use the stop and go?


splashpot
10-25-2005, 11:07 PM
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Hero (t1050)
UTG (t1405)
Button (t2770)
SB (t2775)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t300</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t200.

Flop: (t650) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero pushes(650)?

Final Pot: t650

rbear
10-25-2005, 11:15 PM
looks about right...

i even do this w/out a hand too--- pushing any flop w/ junk /images/graemlins/grin.gif

but... very read dependant play

bluefeet
10-25-2005, 11:16 PM
Looks good.

You still have an once of FE here...but rarely any info that would indicate he'd fold getting a little less than 2:1 (assuming his raise was purely positional). I like your line.

KingDan
10-25-2005, 11:56 PM
I push preflop.

You still have some fold equity preflop IMO.

golfcchs
10-26-2005, 12:04 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I push preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Second that.

Stop and go is not bad, but with button raising wide range of hads because of stack I push with a hand as good as 99.

Nick M
10-26-2005, 12:16 AM
You know something I was just in the middle of writing that I don't think hero has one ounce of FE preflop...but then I re-looked the hand numbers over and I see a mistake. The OP put 650 in parentheses, but it's actually 750...so I might think this is ok. I guess there could be an OK chance he folds, but he would have to be on a straight steal.

AA suited
10-26-2005, 12:32 AM
i would push preflop w/any pair, at+.

pooh74
10-26-2005, 12:35 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Looks good.

You still have an once of FE here...but rarely any info that would indicate he'd fold getting a little less than 2:1 (assuming his raise was purely positional). I like your line.


[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I was going to say this too....This is somewhat borderline as to whether you are losing EV by not utilizing your PF FE...this is a bad example cas I think this is where a SnG is good...but if you have 400-500 more chips, PF push is better. Finding that line between pushing PF and calling and pushing postflop is where optimal play is at...nice post.

(especially if villain is agro PF)

jeffraider
10-26-2005, 04:25 AM
What's the advantage in stop and going here instead of pushing? You're still getting called by anything that had you beat preflop, and you're folding hands that you're a big favourite against. I'd probably push preflop and lock in those hands I'm destroying and just load up a new tourney if he beats me.

10-26-2005, 04:52 AM
not a huge fan of this play.

tigerite
10-26-2005, 04:56 AM
[ QUOTE ]
What's the advantage in stop and going here instead of pushing? You're still getting called by anything that had you beat preflop, and you're folding hands that you're a big favourite against. I'd probably push preflop and lock in those hands I'm destroying and just load up a new tourney if he beats me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, I'd push this. I'd stop and go with pairs around 66, perhaps 77, or lower. 99 I'm shoving back.

SumZero
10-26-2005, 06:36 AM
With no reads it is very hard to tell accurately what the best play is. He's raising attacking the blinds from the button, when the sb is the other big stack and you are the short stack in the bb. How's he been playing? How often does he button raise?

Let's say that he is raising with the top 50% of heads up hands (based on Dennis Bragg's article). That is any pair, any A, any K, Q5+, J7+, and T8+. If you push you are giving him a choice of calling 750 to win 1400 more, which ignoring ICM considerations and concentrating on CEV means you are almost giving him 2:1. Against that range as a whole that is about what your odds are (around 36%). That range represents 609 hands. If you assume for a second that he only calls you with hands that have odds against you (a worst case analysis). This knocks out any hand that involves cards 9 or lower other than T9 and 99. So this leaves you with 199 hands that call you and this range is just over 50% against you. So in the worst case pushing leaves you with a 2150 stack 16% of the time, a 1400 stack 67% of the time and a 0 stack 17% of the time. Overall that works out to an EV of 1282, so pushing is clearly better than folding. And the real EV is going to be bigger than this as I doubt he calls with QT or KT and bet he calls with 88. So if we change his calling range to A8+, 55+, KQ then he only calls with 159 hands and these hands are only a 45.5% against us so now we end up with a 2150 stack 14% of the time, a 1400 stack 74% of the time, and a 0 stack 12% of the time. This works out to an EV of 1340.

On the stop and go you are giving him odds to call you where he shouldn't call with overcards that didn't hit the flop but should call when he hits the flop with an overpair. If we do a similar worse case analysis and say that he calls only with hands that are 2:1 or better against you post flop this includes any overpair on any flop, any overcard that pairs the flop, and any underpair that hits a set, or any undercard that hits trips on the flop (for simplicity ignore some of the other times he calls you like overcards+flush draw or overcards+straight draw and ignore some of the time he might fold a better hand like T8 on a AKT board). Lets consider 4 different set of cards:

1. Overpairs (and 99). There are 31 such hands and they are 80% favorite over your hand.
2. Underpairs. There are 42 such hands and they flop a set about 1/8 of the times.
3. Two overcards. There are 160 such hands and they hit a pair or better about 1/3 of the times.
4. One overcard. There are 376 such hands and they hit an overpair or lower trips about 1/5 times.

With all of the hands 2-4 you'll have about a 15% chance of beating them even when they hit their hands on the flop and call you.

In this sort of worst case you end up with 1400 about 73% of the time. You'll end up with 2150 about 4% of the time. You'll end up with 0 about 23% of the time for an EV of 1114. Note this is significantly worse than the worst case in the push. Even if we change our assumptions about what hands he calls with this isn't going to get us up to the 1340 EV of the realistic call range if we push preflop.

I think even with the simplifications that it isn't close and that this makes the pre-flop push the better play.

Scuba Chuck
10-26-2005, 06:48 AM
I think this play here is pretty bad. Your hand is far too strong to do this with first of all. Second of all, if he is on just a steal, why let him see a cheap flop?

Your hand carries the most value preflop.

Generally speaking, most think of the stop-n-go in these terms. If you know you're going to get called preflop with a push and you are willing to put all your chips in the middle, do you gain any FE with a stop n go?

This is not the case here. You do have FE. Furthermore, your hand is strong. Don't put yourself in a vulnerable situation by seeing a cheap flop.

zambonidrivr
10-26-2005, 08:22 AM
i'd rather get it all in preflop. he's going to call. .. .

bigt439
10-26-2005, 09:30 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I think this play here is pretty bad. Your hand is far too strong to do this with first of all. Second of all, if he is on just a steal, why let him see a cheap flop?

Your hand carries the most value preflop.

Generally speaking, most think of the stop-n-go in these terms. If you know you're going to get called preflop with a push and you are willing to put all your chips in the middle, do you gain any FE with a stop n go?

This is not the case here. You do have FE. Furthermore, your hand is strong. Don't put yourself in a vulnerable situation by seeing a cheap flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

splashpot
10-26-2005, 09:55 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I think this play here is pretty bad. Your hand is far too strong to do this with first of all. Second of all, if he is on just a steal, why let him see a cheap flop?

Your hand carries the most value preflop.

Generally speaking, most think of the stop-n-go in these terms. If you know you're going to get called preflop with a push and you are willing to put all your chips in the middle, do you gain any FE with a stop n go?

This is not the case here. You do have FE. Furthermore, your hand is strong. Don't put yourself in a vulnerable situation by seeing a cheap flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hrm....interesting responses. I had to edit the hand because the converter didn't work and I did make a mistake, it was 750, not 650. So I suppose I might have had some fold equity preflop. I don't know.....I really didn't want him to call with 2 overs. I'll have to think about this some more.

Nicholasp27
10-26-2005, 09:55 AM
i don't like the stop and go here

i think this is a pre-flop resteal push

if u had a weaker hand than 99, i'd be inclined to s-n-g, but with 99, i'd be pushing preflop...if he's raising with, say, j8 to steal, he'll fold pf, but then that flop hit him and ur out

s-n-g is great in certain instances because the flop usually misses your opp (and when it does hit, many times it's not for top pair or a set/straight/flush), so great when u don't have a good holding urself

but when u got 99, u gotta pooooooooooooshh

tigerite
10-26-2005, 10:03 AM
[ QUOTE ]
i don't like the stop and go here

i think this is a pre-flop resteal push

if u had a weaker hand than 99, i'd be inclined to s-n-g, but with 99, i'd be pushing preflop...if he's raising with, say, j8 to steal, he'll fold pf, but then that flop hit him and ur out

s-n-g is great in certain instances because the flop usually misses your opp (and when it does hit, many times it's not for top pair or a set/straight/flush), so great when u don't have a good holding urself

but when u got 99, u gotta pooooooooooooshh

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly, though of course, you would want him to call with J8!

pooh74
10-26-2005, 10:08 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I think this play here is pretty bad. Your hand is far too strong to do this with first of all. Second of all, if he is on just a steal, why let him see a cheap flop?

Your hand carries the most value preflop.

Generally speaking, most think of the stop-n-go in these terms. If you know you're going to get called preflop with a push and you are willing to put all your chips in the middle, do you gain any FE with a stop n go?

This is not the case here. You do have FE. Furthermore, your hand is strong. Don't put yourself in a vulnerable situation by seeing a cheap flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You and I think he has FE, but what would a 3bb raising villain do here? Are they more likely to fold PF or flop? (even factoring in the times they miss and still call, hit and call etc...)

I don't think this play is as bad as you say, like I said above, there is a line where you are wasting your preflop FE, but I think this one is close as to not call it horrible.

bluefeet
10-26-2005, 01:31 PM
I told you it'd be more interesting minus the "it worked" part /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Nah...just kidding. I was actually lying in bed last night thinking about this hand (yes, I have no life, and I'm an insomniac). The whole "maximizing FE" and "hand strength" arguement, in relation to a suitable time for the SNG. I was looking forward to getting back in here at lunch - not surprised to see the dissension.

I spent the past 30min or so (from work) writing up a long reply to add. Asking more questions than giving answers - hopefully sparking some deeper discussion on the topic. Unfortunately, I accidently closed the window before I finished /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Ah well, I'll give it another try tonight.

Nicholasp27
10-26-2005, 02:22 PM
yeah, please do

i'd be interested to see more discussion about it

answers aren't the important part anyway, it's what u need to consider when making decisions that matters

Nick M
10-26-2005, 05:55 PM
i'm sorry this I just don't get...why do you want him to call??? I mean sure if he has 88 or below, but the chances of those exact holdings are slim.

Scuba Chuck
10-26-2005, 09:33 PM
[ QUOTE ]


You and I think he has FE, but what would a 3bb raising villain do here? Are they more likely to fold PF or flop? (even factoring in the times they miss and still call, hit and call etc...)

I don't think this play is as bad as you say, like I said above, there is a line where you are wasting your preflop FE, but I think this one is close as to not call it horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pooh, the bigger issue is there comes a time to risk seeing a showdown. We often do this with AK. 99 here is the same situation. There is no guarantee that we will be able to continue to accumulate chips via blind steals. We are the short stack. Here's an excellent opportunity to make a move. Don't waste it by letting villain see a cheap flop.

Scuba Chuck
10-26-2005, 09:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]
i'm sorry this I just don't get...why do you want him to call??? I mean sure if he has 88 or below, but the chances of those exact holdings are slim.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think on average, hero is about a 62-65% favorite here.

For example, Hero has an edge over A8 or Q8 by 70+%. Against this hand range, hero has FE. Having FE does not mean villain will fold these hands, it just means that some villains will call, some will fold. Furthermore, against hands like KQ, hero has a slight advantage, 55%. And obviously, you hope he calls with a hand like 77 or less. Either way, we're short stacked here. We have a very very strong hand. I like to get my strong hands in against donkeys preflop. If he has a hand like AK, he's not folding now, and frankly, not on the flop.

Anyway, the reason you want him to call is because you're pretty close to a 2:1 favorite against his range. And, the second reason is, because you're not playing for third at this stage of the game.