All in chasing a open ended straight and top pair.

[bentlyman]

I held KJo after the flop with a openended straight draw. I assumed 10 outs(11-1) b/c I put him on AJ,AQ or AK(-2 outs).

How far behind was I after the flop when he turned over AQ?? For the record I normally wouldn't have called this but I was looking to go for the big stack and start pushing the tight table around. I gambled. How was this gamble???

I am g-love2...



PokerStars Game #68465715: Tournament #112417, Hold'em Pot Limit - Level V
(75/150) - 2003/06/05 - 22:38:24 (EST)
Table '112417 7' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Mike Haven (1540 in chips)
Seat 2: G-love2 (3455 in chips)
Seat 3: rake3 (7300 in chips)
Seat 4: polarole (970 in chips)
Seat 6: saboteur (5320 in chips)
Seat 9: TuristOnTilt (6086 in chips)
rake3: posts small blind 75
polarole: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to G-love2 [Ks Jc]
saboteur: folds
TuristOnTilt: folds
Mike Haven: folds
saboteur said, "you a limit man?"
G-love2: raises 300 to 450
rake3: raises 550 to 1000
polarole: folds
G-love2: calls 550
*** FLOP *** [Tc Qd 7s]
Mike Haven said, "yes"
Mike Haven said, "only"
rake3: bets 1000
G-love2: raises 1455 to 2455 and is all-in
saboteur said, "but your european. sterotype huh?"
rake3: calls 1455
*** TURN *** [Tc Qd 7s] [6d]
*** RIVER *** [Tc Qd 7s 6d] [7d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
rake3: shows [Qc Ac] (two pair, Queens and Sevens)
G-love2: shows [Ks Jc] (a pair of Sevens)
Mike Haven said, "i only play online"
rake3 collected 7060 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7060 | Rake 0
Board [Tc Qd 7s 6d 7d]
Seat 1: Mike Haven folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: G-love2 (button) showed [Ks Jc] and lost with a pair of Sevens
Seat 3: rake3 (small blind) showed [Qc Ac] and won (7060) with two pair, Queens
and Sevens
Seat 4: polarole (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: saboteur folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: TuristOnTilt folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[JayKon]

While I sure others will disagree, I would have folded to the pre-flop raise. If it was KJs and not KJo, I might have called - it depends on what I knew about the raiser.

Assuming I do call pre-flop and one of my suits are on the rainbow flop, I might call and I mean might. The pot is basically giving you 3-1 for a 1 in 4 shot for the straight, adding the K hitting and the runner-runner flush cards and your probably only a little below break-even.

The initial play is OK. I'll blind rob w/ KJo too. Sometimes I bet 2xBB, sometimes 3xBB and on occasion 4xBB, depends on my mood and the makeup of the table. However, sometimes you just have to enrich the stack of someone who has the balls to come over the top. If they'll do it when you have KJo, they'll fo it when you have AA.

[bentlyman]

Thanks for the input and your view on how to play the hand.

Does anyone have the % stats to tell me how far I was behind and what my odds were of winning?? Much appreciated in advance.

[JayKon]

Well, on the flop, you had 3 K's, 3 A's, 4 Ts, or running J's.

Thats 10 outs + the running J's (which are ignorable). For the turn it's 3.7 to 1 against and for the turn & river its 1.61 to 1 against. So the odds are a better than I first thought.

When you went all-in, the pot was $3,074 and you raised $1,455 assuming you'll be called. So thats $1,455 to $4,129, or, 1 to 2.8. So, if your in a ring game, it looks like a good play. However, it ignoes the fact that if you don't connect, your out and can't play anymore.

Here is the chart I use:

turn turn river river t/r t/r
Outs (%) (X:1) (%) (X:1) (%) (X:1)
-------------------------------------------------------------
15 31.9 2.13 32.6 2.07 54.1 0.85
14 29.8 2.36 30.4 2.28 51.2 0.96
13 27.7 2.62 28.3 2.54 48.1 1.08
12 25.5 2.92 26.1 2.83 45.0 1.22
11 23.4 3.27 23.9 3.18 41.7 1.40
10 21.3 3.70 21.7 3.60 38.4 1.61
9 19.1 4.22 19.6 4.11 35.0 1.86
8 17.0 4.88 17.4 4.75 31.5 2.18
7 14.9 5.71 15.2 5.57 27.8 2.59
6 12.8 6.83 13.0 6.67 24.1 3.14
5 10.6 8.40 10.9 8.20 20.4 3.91
4 8.5 10.75 8.7 10.50 16.5 5.07
3 6.4 14.67 6.5 14.33 12.5 7.01
2 4.3 22.50 4.3 22.00 08.4 10.88
1 2.1 46.00 2.2 45.00 04.3 22.50

Outs Given In attempt to make
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
15 Open Straight Flush Draw Straight, Flush, Straight Flush
12 Inside Straight Flush Draw Straight, Flush, Straight Flush
9 Flush Draw Flush
8 Open Straight Draw Straight
4 Gut Shot Straight Straight
4 2 Pair Full House
2 1 Pair Three of a kind
1 Three of a Kind Four of a kind

[bentlyman]

[DoctorJ]

Using twodimes.net, which is immensely helpful for exactly this type of calculation (and free), you were a 63.7 to 36.3 underdog on the flop, or 1.75-to-1.

As JayKon noted, you were getting 2.8-to-1 if you raise all-in and he calls, but this does discount the possibility he'll fold to your raise (small prob, most likely). Also of importance, when he made the $1000 bet, you were getting 3-to-1 on a call to see the turn.

Other info that would be helpful to us in evaluating the hand would be the amt of the buy-ins, quality of players, any reads on the players, etc.

I personally would have folded to the pre-flop raise, and not even thought about it for a second.

Then, on the flop, you've got the classic decision of whether to put all your chips in on a draw. You are certainly getting more than the correct pot odds, but as JayKon noted, if you miss, you're out. Easy play in a ring game, not so easy in a tourney.

I'm guessing getting 3-to-1 on your 1.7-to-1 draw would be considered more than enough pot odds by many players as well...

I'll defer to the experts, which is why i don't often put myself in these positions by calling raises/reraises with KJ...

Good luck...

DoctorJ

[JayKon]

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

A bit off topic, but this is a great example of why it's better to steal-raise with a bad hand than with a marginal hand.

[JayKon]

Intresting thought. However, it assums that people can't learn to lay a hand down.

[fnurt]

Because you won't be tempted to call with a bad hand? /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

The other day I limped with AA from early position looking to limp-reraise. Everyone folded around to the button, who predictably raised, blinds fold, I reraise all in, button calls and flips over Q2s.

Trying to steal from the button against a single EP limper is a normal play, I guess, but calling the reraise...

Anyway, to those who say it's better to steal with a bad hand cause it's easy to lay down, I offer this counterexample. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Not just that it's easier to lay the hand down, but also, if you *do* flop a draw, your opponent is less likely to have hit the flop, thus betting the flop is more likely to win the hand right there. Of course, steals from the button are always problematic, as your opponent will more likely put you on a steal than if you raise 2 off the button.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

people can learn, but it's a hard lesson. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

[ohkanada]

"I held KJo after the flop with a openended straight draw. I assumed 10 outs(11-1) b/c I put him on AJ,AQ or AK(-2 outs)."

Pre-flop, if you feel he has AJ/AQ/AK then you need to muck to the re-raise. Don't throw more money in for worse just because you raised.

The raise on the flop is likely problematic because you don't have enough chips to make him fold any hands. Certainly he isn't folding AQ but based on the size of the pot and only needing to add 1500, he might even call with AK/AJ as well as any pair. Plus why did he only bet 1000 on the flop when you have only 1500 left. Was it a feeler bet with AK or was it a bet asking to be called?

Ken Poklitar

[bentlyman]

I put him on those hands AFTER the flop and he made his 1000 bet. I knew i was a dog in that sit but knew i had an OK chance. Normaly I wouldn't risk getting knocked out on a hand in that situation (I was 9 of 19 left 56 entrants). I called the raise b/c i felt i had reasonable chance and pot commited. Would I do it the same move again?? Probably not, but maybe.

[JayKon]

Some can and (happily) some can't.