10-25-2005, 06:37 AM
YTD record 7-2.
Have to go out of town later in the week so doing my handicapping much earlier than normal. Even though I am not a big fan of write-ups, b/c anyone with half a brain can argue both sides of a game, I will comply with the FAQ request to provide some verbal meaningful analysis when I can. However, 95% of my handicapping is based in fundamental statistical analysis which (I hope) leads to a more accurate line than the one I am being offered on a particular game.
This weeks plays:
Ole Miss +19.5... Ole Miss looked very sloppy against a bad Kentucky team, especially offensively, but this should come as no surprise as the offense has usually struggled this season regardless of the quality of opponent. Coming off a last play heartbreaking loss against Bama and with Auburn ahead, Kentucky was a natural letdown spot for them. Ole Miss will catch an Auburn team coming off a similar heartbreaking last play loss at LSU, and the Auburn team might still be thinking about that one in preparation for this game. Ole Miss has performed well in its last 3 trips to Auburn and has only lost by this number twice in its last 10 vs. Auburn. Hold your nose and take the Rebels.
Oklahoma +1.5... The numbers here crunched out very evenly but Oklahoma has done it against a brutal schedule that includes 2 top 10 BCS teams. Another ugly selection, I know, I know...
Iowa St. +10... Will continue to go against A&M, taking big points with a more solid defensive team.
Navy +5.5... If Rutgers wins this game they become bowl eligible. This fact alone makes Navy the mortal ML lock of the century. Versus similar or better competition in Maryland and Stanford, Navy proved they can play with the BCS conference teams and catches a Rutgers team that was nothing short of giddy after its road win at UConn last week. I like Navy to win the game outright, but will gladly take the points.
Good luck this weekend.
Have to go out of town later in the week so doing my handicapping much earlier than normal. Even though I am not a big fan of write-ups, b/c anyone with half a brain can argue both sides of a game, I will comply with the FAQ request to provide some verbal meaningful analysis when I can. However, 95% of my handicapping is based in fundamental statistical analysis which (I hope) leads to a more accurate line than the one I am being offered on a particular game.
This weeks plays:
Ole Miss +19.5... Ole Miss looked very sloppy against a bad Kentucky team, especially offensively, but this should come as no surprise as the offense has usually struggled this season regardless of the quality of opponent. Coming off a last play heartbreaking loss against Bama and with Auburn ahead, Kentucky was a natural letdown spot for them. Ole Miss will catch an Auburn team coming off a similar heartbreaking last play loss at LSU, and the Auburn team might still be thinking about that one in preparation for this game. Ole Miss has performed well in its last 3 trips to Auburn and has only lost by this number twice in its last 10 vs. Auburn. Hold your nose and take the Rebels.
Oklahoma +1.5... The numbers here crunched out very evenly but Oklahoma has done it against a brutal schedule that includes 2 top 10 BCS teams. Another ugly selection, I know, I know...
Iowa St. +10... Will continue to go against A&M, taking big points with a more solid defensive team.
Navy +5.5... If Rutgers wins this game they become bowl eligible. This fact alone makes Navy the mortal ML lock of the century. Versus similar or better competition in Maryland and Stanford, Navy proved they can play with the BCS conference teams and catches a Rutgers team that was nothing short of giddy after its road win at UConn last week. I like Navy to win the game outright, but will gladly take the points.
Good luck this weekend.