The Cutoff Point: What's it Worth to You?

[SpaceAce]

This question applies specifically to online games up to about $200 buyin. Assume the villain has done nothing outrageous and shown neither super-passive nor super-aggressive tendencies.

AFTER the flop, Villain has $XX and Hero has $XX+1.

Hero has A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifA/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Villain raises to 4xBB pre-flop from early position. Hero reraises to 12xBB from the button. Villain Calls, everyone else is gone.

The flop is 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Villain checks, Hero bets the pot and Villain check-raises all-in. How big does XX (Villain's stack) have to be for this to be a fold in your opinion?

Now, imagine Hero has A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif. How small does XX have to be for this to be a call?

SpaceAce

I'm pretty sure villain has me here, so if I'm putting any more than ~1/3 the money in the pot on my call here, I'm laying it down.

2nd hand, I'm folding unless his reraise is significantly smaller than my initial raise.

What can villian be holding in the first example that makes it so dangerous? He called a 12bb bet preflop - so he almost CANT have the flush made since you hold the A and the KQ are on the board. Call any amount here. You might be ahead AND have 9 outs to the nuts.

In the second example, if its anything more than a minbet, im folding.

QQ, KK.

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QQ, KK.

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Point.

But 11 outs plus a backdoor straight draw... I think I make this call anyway.

[PinkSteel]

If villain holds QQ or KK (or 33), then you have 9 flush outs plus the other two As, twice, which makes you about a 59:41 dog. So if there are about 25.5BB already in the pot from preflop,
25.5 + x + x = y
x = 0.41y

Or x = 25.5 / (2.43 - 2.0) = 59.3BB

So if you're *absolutely sure* you're up against a set, then you are +EV to call up to about 59BB.

The real questions then are

1. What is villain's true hand range? Seems like QQ, KK, 33 is a pretty good range but maybe someone else can think of another holding where he might do this.

2. How would you manage variance against this villain? That is, if you are sure of the set, and he pushes for 59BB, do you accept this very marginally +EV proposition and call, or do you decide you can find a much better spot to get your money in?

KK, QQ are real possibilities, but given his pfraise, I dotn think 33 is in play. Also, AK is reasonable.

[subzero]

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Now, imagine Hero has A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA/images/graemlins/club.gif. How small does XX have to be for this to be a call?

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I we say villain only does this with a set, you are 11.8% to win. If I did the math correctly, villain must have 49 or less BBs:

pot on flop:
25.5 + 25.5 + (X-12) = X + 39

Hero must call:
(X-12) - 25.5 = X - 37.5

pot equity:
(X-37.5) /((X + 39) + (X-37.5)) = .118
X = 49

[SpaceAce]

Thank you for all the responses, very interesting.

My thoughts:

KK is Villain's most likely hand by a long shot. How long? I'm not sure, but I think it's significant. However, I think AK with no diamond is a remote possibility and AK with the Ace of diamonds (when I don't have it) is going to show up fairly often. Add to that the occasional TT or JJ with a diamond (rare but I think you will see this once in a while) and I think it is correct to call quite a lot in the first example.

Now, if you can put Villain fairly accurately on a range of hands, it becomes a math problem. The problem becomes, what is the hand range of someone check-raising all-in here in these low limit online games? As I stated before, I think it's KK most often. Does anyone disagree with that? If so, what do you think is most likely and why? I'd really like to see a few breakdowns of what you think the percentages are for Villain to have certain hands.

Also, what if you've gotten pretty deep? What is $XX is considerably above the capped buyin? How, if at all, do you pad your numbers when you know you can't buy back in to cover the table?

SpaceAce