Am I DOA, or am I just weak?

[Luv2DriveTT]

BB is a TAG, other than that I don't think reads are necessary considering the board and pre-flop action.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (6.16 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (6.16 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.16 BB

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Cancuk]

I bet the flop here.

[blackize]

Bet the flop. You might be able to fold the BB who seems just as afraid of the ace as you are. A TAG 3 betting you preflop isn't likely to checkraise this flop, and you can check the turn and snag a bluff on the river.

[irishpint]

You're ahead of TT and KQ and splitting w/ KK. Why did you not bet the flop? I feel like the villian has a tough time getting too out of line w/ this board after you capped PF. Since the flop was checke through'and the turn checked to you I'd bet that- unless you think BB is going for the ultimate c/r attempt here. I think the river is a good call.

[scotty34]

I think you have to bet the flop here. It's an easy fold to a C/R. You can check behind on the turn and re-evaluate on the river.

If he's c/r'ed on the flop he has odds to hit his gutshot on the turn if he calls the c/r.

[KDawgCometh]

once it gets checked through on the flop, I'd favor betting the turn

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's c/r'ed on the flop he has odds to hit his gutshot on the turn if he calls the c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]

good point

[Danenania]

I like the flop check, but I think you should bet the turn. I'm not worried about BB who only has 2 outs, but UTG could have a weak pair of J's or Q's or a gutshot that we have to make fold or pay.

[Subfallen]

Weird, I thought you played 15/30 and higher. Anyways, I would bet the turn here, but I don't think it really matters b/c if your hand is good you aren't going to get paid off.

[Danenania]

Also I think you can probably raise the river. Does BB ever not have KK? Why split when you can scoop?

[Luv2DriveTT]

I disagree with those who recommended betting on the flop here, BB’s likely hand range is AA-TT (possibly 99), AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ. Of these I am only ahead against TT, 99, and KQ. Betting this flop is useless even though I will have the odds to call a check-raise but I have to be realistic by admitting I probably only have 4 outs.

I do however think I lost my backbone on the turn… considering the likely hand range of BB at the time I was concerned about a possible trap. What hands do you think BB would check on the turn to attempt the trap, or do you think BB would never consider that option?

[ QUOTE ]
Weird, I thought you played 15/30 and higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

I play 3/6 6 max online, I have yet to turn a profit playing short at this level – I’m still break even at 15K hands (a mixture of my own bad play and variance). I play 15/30 and lower live, I started as a live player and went online late in the game.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

Wow, TT posts a hand discussion. I have to mark my calendar.

I bet the flop--half for value, and half so that I can take a free card on the turn, and call a river bet. By betting the flop, you deal with the WA/WB problem unless he donks you on the turn.

BB's 3 bet doesnt necessarily mean he flopped a set or made top pair. I think a lot of TAGish BBs will three bet OOP with a lot of pairs, in order to force out the UTG limper. If I thought I could fold the UTG limper, I'd 3-bet with pairs as weak as 88.

Granted, the lack of a flop bet is suspicious after the preflop 3-bet, but I still think betting the flop is a cheaper way of getting to showdown. If you bet the flop after the preflop cap, a majority of players (with TP or a set) will check the turn to you and allow you to take the free card.

[kelvin474]

I like what you've done with this hand. Betting the flop or turn doesn't seem right to me though because he has AK/AA/QQ/JJ so much. I could potentially find a bet on the turn, if BB would not check AK/QQ/AA/JJ twice, since UTG appears to not like his hand (checked to him twice, he never bet).

However, I still check the turn. Protection from BB isn't important, as if you're currently ahead he probably has no more than 4 outs (TT), and you still stand a good chance of him trying to whack you with a set. The critical decision on the turn for me is, how badly do I think I need to protect myself from some kind of JT from UTG, versus how often do I get C/Re'd for a v. expensive potential river straight I could have looked at for free? W/O seeing these cats at the table, I say check it thru, and lets see that Ten!

[BottlesOf]

I was all for a flop bet, now I'm wavering. Given the way the flop and turn went I don't see how you can't bet the turn.

[DrSavage]

I would bet the flop. Your range on BB is too narrow. You're also probably not risking a check/raise on the flop because flopped monster will traditionally go for turn check/raise here. You have 6 fairly clean outs here and betting the flop seems like the cheapest way to get to showdown. Having checked the flop I like the rest fine.

[gaming_mouse]

I play it the same.

[Surfbullet]

I like the flop check, but we've got to bet the turn when it goes check-check again...that woudl be one incredibly elaborate trap for a 3/6er.

Danenania raised an interesting point about raising the river to fold KK...not sure what I think of it but it's gotten me to wondering.

Surf

Let me elaborate on the WA/WB issue.

WA = 88(6), 99(6), TT(6), KQ(6) = 24

WB = QQ(3), JJ(3), AA(3), AK(6), AQ(9), AJ(9) = 33

Pretty close, but probably behind.

In this situation, you want to either fold early, or see the showdown as cheap as possible.

Betting the flop helps you fold early if you run into aggression, i.e., checkraise + donk, or donk only. You can fold 4th street UI pretty safely, getting only 9:1 or 8:1 on your money.

Betting the flop also helps you see the showdown cheaply, since a good amount of the time you get a free card on 4th street. The temptation on villain to checkraise the preflop aggressor with a monster holding is pretty strong. Since the guy didn't bet the flop, Im not going to put him on a "fastplay is the new slowplay" type of TAG, so I'd bet the odds are very good that he'd go for a 4th street checkraise if you bet the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
I like the flop check, but we've got to bet the turn when it goes check-check again...that woudl be one incredibly elaborate trap for a 3/6er.

Danenania raised an interesting point about raising the river to fold KK...not sure what I think of it but it's gotten me to wondering.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you wonder? Youre going to raise when there is exactly 1 hand combination you're chopping with, and a million where you're behind? You CANT raise the river here.

[DrSavage]

[ QUOTE ]
Also I think you can probably raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

No you cannot.

[Danenania]

Yeah maybe that is a dumb idea. I don't know, some guys could only have KK here though since they would bet a big hand or an Ace on the turn and wouldn't bet worse on the river. And since you are calling anyway it's not THAT big of a risk. BUT I doubt the read can be so precise so my mind is changed.

[ QUOTE ]
UTG could have a weak pair of J's or Q's or a gutshot that we have to make fold or pay.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ive focussed on the BB and his 3-bet, but Danemania makes a good point about the UTG player. Regardless of what the BB holds, the UTG player is most likely behind you, but if he has a pair he is drawing live with (probably) 5 outs (assuming his side card isn't a T). Betting the flop also prevents the freecard in those instances when you are ahead of 88, 99, TT or KQ.

[Luv2DriveTT]

[ QUOTE ]
Also I think you can probably raise the river. Does BB ever not have KK? Why split when you can scoop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry mate, I don't agree. Thats really bad.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Luv2DriveTT]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
UTG could have a weak pair of J's or Q's or a gutshot that we have to make fold or pay.

[/ QUOTE ]

I’ve focused on the BB and his 3-bet, but Danemania makes a good point about the UTG player. Regardless of what the BB holds, the UTG player is most likely behind you, but if he has a pair he is drawing live with (probably) 5 outs (assuming his side card isn't a T). Betting the flop also prevents the free card in those instances when you are ahead of 88, 99, TT or KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the best argument for betting the flop IMHO DIE (I got a chuckle when I typed that). The downside is that I expect to be check raised by BB if I lead out on the flop more than 80% of the time. Since I'd have to call a turn &amp; probably a river bet as well, I'd rather play this hand as cheaply as possible.

Doc Savage and I discussed this in detail via IM, he thinks the BB will attack on the turn the majority of the time, therefore betting the flop will often earn a free look at the river. I suppose many thinking players will choose to raise the flop instead because of the number of draws on the board and because he is out of position (villain wouldn't want to risk a turn bet being missed), which reduces the chances for a free turn card.

In short, the flop check is best. I think the turn is the most interesting part of the hand however…

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[ QUOTE ]
The downside is that I expect to be check raised by BB if I lead out on the flop more than 80% of the time. Since I'd have to call a turn &amp; probably a river bet as well, I'd rather play this hand as cheaply as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your 80% number is WAY off but whatever.

Even conceding your pessimistic view of what will happen, what hand do you put the TAG BB on after a flop checkraise and a turn donk? Surely not 88, 99, TT or KQ?

No, after the action you've described, youre facing AA, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, or AJ.

Calling the turn is thin, but ok, maybe. Against AA(3) you have 4 outs. Against QQ(3), JJ(3), AK(6), AQ(6), and AJ(6) you have 6 outs. This is about 5.7 outs on a weighted average basis.

After a flop c/r and turn donk, you're getting 9:1 to call. You slighly less than 6-outer needs about 8.5:1 to call, so there is a teeny tiny overlay. So although my instinct had been to fold the turn, I could see how you can call it.

Looking at the situation in view of the math, however, I see that the reason I want to fold the turn UI is because I dont want to get myself into the situation where I'm folding a 11+BB pot on the river for 1 BB (holding out the remote hope that villain had gone crazy with 88, 99, or TT).

I'll go along with you calling the turn UI after a c/r, but only if you tell me you have the discipline to fold the river UI. I don't which is why I can get away from the hand on the turn when I dont improve, and where the villain is showing serious aggression by c/ring the flop and donking the turn.

[Luv2DriveTT]

I have been asked to post the results. The BB had AA, and MHWNG /images/graemlins/frown.gif I am sticking by the flop check, but I do agree a turn bet is slightly better than my line, however I'm calling a check-raise by BB if it occurs. My turn check was to see the river cheaply and hope to pick up 2 BB if it could induce the BB into betting (and UTG calling), but betting the turn is just barely the better play IMHO.

Now lets discuss from BB's perspective, I think he should have bet the flop. Since it got checked through and the turn card was a blank, I think his trap actually wasn't that horrible but I would have donked the turn if I were him. I see the capper (me) betting this turn more often than not after it gets checked through both on the flop &amp; the turn, and of course UTG is a variable (and possible drawing live).

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif