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TightIsRight
10-25-2005, 02:18 AM
Assuming a typical player (no reads), what percentage of the time would you throw in another bet here? (please ignore PF if you don't like it)

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (5.40 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (6.70 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="green">...Hero? </font>
JacksonTens
10-25-2005, 02:23 AM
I'm inclined to check due to the 6 kicker, but then I've been having some valuer bet problems lately due to some psychological damge sustained by rivered sets and gutshots.

JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif
newhizzle
10-25-2005, 02:27 AM
PF is fine after 3 limpers

id bet the river, theres no reason to put him on a nine and most players will call you with a smaller pair or maybe even ace high
Borodog
10-25-2005, 02:29 AM
[ QUOTE ]
PF is fine after 3 limpers

id bet the river, theres no reason to put him on a nine and most players will call you with a smaller pair or maybe even ace high

[/ QUOTE ]

He may also give up on 87, which would be a coup.
TightIsRight
10-25-2005, 02:33 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PF is fine after 3 limpers

id bet the river, theres no reason to put him on a nine and most players will call you with a smaller pair or maybe even ace high

[/ QUOTE ]

He may also give up on 87, which would be a coup.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it definitely would be...but I don't see it happening very often
10-25-2005, 02:42 AM
Bet. He either has 44-77 or A8.
10-25-2005, 03:28 AM
RIver: I have trouble thinking of many lesser hands that villian may be holding which would call your bet, or many better hands that would fold. If villian chekcraises here, you can only beat a bluff. Betting feels like a bad risk to reward ratio here.
10-25-2005, 11:47 AM
My thought here is that you will only get called by a better hand. I would check and show down
krimson
10-25-2005, 11:52 AM
Your getting called by smaller PP's, bet the river.
10-25-2005, 11:55 AM
For this bet to be for value, you have to put him on 44-77. It's more likely he has an 8 with a better kicker. I'd show it down.
10-25-2005, 01:17 PM
If it's an 8 with a better kicker, it would have to be something like A8s, or maybe K8s. An overpair is unlikely as typical opponents would raise with AA-TT in this spot. Your opponent will have overcards much of the time and may or may not call the river with them. Your biggest source of calls is the lower pairs. I also don't think you are ever getting raised here.
pistol78
10-25-2005, 01:21 PM
I really dont like your flop raise. I don't know why yet, I just don't like it.
Borodog
10-25-2005, 01:25 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I really dont like your flop raise. I don't know why yet, I just don't like it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an easy raise on the flop. Hero has top pair, position on the bettor, and can fold lots of overs by forcing them to call 2 cold.
dinero2433
10-25-2005, 01:40 PM
I'd say check through on the river - the only hands that call us are hands that beat us.
10-25-2005, 02:07 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I really dont like your flop raise. I don't know why yet, I just don't like it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raise &gt; fold &gt; call. I don't see what's not to like about it?
AaronS
10-25-2005, 02:08 PM
Hmmm, this is so read dependant. I dont have it in front of me but I think the rule from HPFAP was bet the river if you will win 55% of the the time you are called. Likely hands the average player would call with? I'd say A8, 78s (10 combinations); 44-77 (21 combinations). Ace high, A2, A3 I think are very unlikely for a typical players. In my opinion, the average player will always call with an 8, and more than 50% of the time when he holds one of the smaller pairs. So that would put you above the required 55%, and I would bet...

If you were the villain here, and held 44-77, would you call?
W. Deranged
10-25-2005, 02:11 PM
1. Raise the flop.

2. Bet the turn.

3. Bet the river. You are getting called by a TON of worse hands. All the lower pocket pairs and hands like A2 and A3. Better 8s might well have reraised on the flop or something like that. You can fold to a raise easily.

If we say villain might play 87, T8+, A2, A3, 44-77, and so other random stuff, notice there are 48 hands that are beating us and 48 hands that we are beating. BUT, we should not that many of the T8+ hands (basically all of them except the suited varieties and A8) are very often not getting played in the first place. When we discount those sufficiently I think it's quite clear that we have a value bet.
krimson
10-25-2005, 02:14 PM
[ QUOTE ]
For this bet to be for value, you have to put him on 44-77. It's more likely he has an 8 with a better kicker. I'd show it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

People like to limp pocket pairs in pre-flop, so why are ruling out 44-77? I just don't see why a A8, specifically, is "more likely" than 44-77.