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View Full Version : Holding 66, have 5X BB...time to gamble?


1C5
10-24-2005, 11:54 PM
Seat 1: bosco88 (1715)
Seat 2: pontiacws6 (1760)
Seat 4: Hero (655)
Seat 6: deznuts75 (1320)
Seat 8: Raoh_ (515)
Seat 9: JunkieDeuces (1490)
Seat 10: RSchlitz (545)
pontiacws6 posts small blind (50)
Hero posts big blind (100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 6d, 6s ]
deznuts75 folds.
Raoh_ raises (515) to 515
Raoh_ is all-In.
JunkieDeuces folds.
RSchlitz folds.
bosco88 folds.
pontiacws6 folds.
Hero does what?

rbear
10-25-2005, 12:02 AM
i'd rather push Ax or Kx from late than call here...especially w/ the push coming from UTG+1

Scuba Chuck
10-25-2005, 12:05 AM
I'd like to hear your thoughts as to why you think now is a good time to gamble vs a fold?

1C5
10-25-2005, 12:47 AM
I am really not sure here.
Gamble: Most likely he will have AJ or 2 other overcards so maybe a 50% chance to double up. Stack goes from 550 to 1100.

Fold: Be 1st in the pot later on, still have some FE with 5X the BB.

Your play here and why?

Scuba Chuck
10-25-2005, 12:48 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I am really not sure here.
Gamble: Most likely he will have AJ or 2 other overcards so maybe a 50% chance to double up. Stack goes from 550 to 1100.

Fold: Be 1st in the pot later on, still have some FE with 5X the BB.

Your play here and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty certain with 5 BBs behind, that calling here is -EV.

Edit: I stand corrected. It's only negative against a tight hand range. Which is certainly not correct IMO here. That being said, it appears to be only about +0.5% EV to call. Bleh, it could go either way I guess.

I'm sure Yugo can give us some reason he thinks is sublime.

1C5
10-25-2005, 12:50 AM
77? 88? 99? AQ? AK?

What do you call with here?

bigt439
10-25-2005, 01:07 AM
[ QUOTE ]
i'd rather push Ax or Kx from late than call here...

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not like we're choosing between those two options. You first have to get Ax or Kx in LP.

I call here by the way, but I haven't run it through anything. He doesn't have to have a tight range at all. Lots of people in his spot will think, rats, I have 5 bb's and the blinds will hit me, might as well push this A4o or K9s.

Isura
10-25-2005, 01:10 AM
[ QUOTE ]
77? 88? 99? AQ? AK?

What do you call with here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Player dependent. But 99 and AQ start to look pretty good to me in this spot.

rbear
10-25-2005, 01:10 AM
well, i guess i would rather push any 2 in LP w/ a folded board, than call here... Have to assume at least overcards.. maybe that's a leak in my game though

SammyKid11
10-25-2005, 01:20 AM
Even if calling is SLIGHTLY +cEV (which, as Scuba mentioned, it only is if villain is pushing a wide range - which, granted he probably is), I think doing so will too often take you out of more +$EV situations on down the line (ie - opportunities to use your remaining FE to pick up some chips in position).

Sacrifice very slight +cEV for more +$EV situations. I fold, personally.

Scuba Chuck
10-25-2005, 03:28 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Even if calling is SLIGHTLY +cEV (which, as Scuba mentioned, it only is if villain is pushing a wide range - which, granted he probably is), I think doing so will too often take you out of more +$EV situations on down the line (ie - opportunities to use your remaining FE to pick up some chips in position).

Sacrifice very slight +cEV for more +$EV situations. I fold, personally.

[/ QUOTE ]

My analysis was +$EV. If I implied cEV analysis anywhere, my apologies.

Bigwig
10-25-2005, 03:35 AM
One important question that nobody has asked is "When are the blinds going up?" There's a good chance that Hero may find himself on the button on the next orbit out of fold equity if he faces poor cards and/or raises on his blinds, preventing realistic steal attempts.

The other major question that has been asked is: "What range is villain pushing with?" Beyond a read, we have to ask what most players would push here. The answer is: A helluva lot. If the blinds are going up soon, I'd be pushing mountains of hands in this spot.

So, I believe that most of the time, HERO is correct to move all-in with 66 here. The fact is that HERO is not in good shape. He's got a small stack, the blinds are going up 50% soon, and there are still seven players remaining. The normal Gap Concepts simply do not apply in these scenarios. HERO should call in this spot [i]even if he's quite certain that he's an underdog to pusher's range[i] most of the time.

Scuba Chuck
10-25-2005, 03:54 AM
BW, I'm sure my SGA analysis implied what you indicated about villain's range. With 5xBB and an impending BB, I'm sure he's shoving hands like 22 and QJo.

curtains
10-25-2005, 03:55 AM
I would lean towards calling. Opponent is so short that his range should be quite loose. Meanwhile you have 1/5th of your effective stack in the pot already

Bigwig
10-25-2005, 03:59 AM
[ QUOTE ]

I would lean towards calling. Opponent is so short that his range should be quite loose. Meanwhile you have 1/5th of your effective stack in the pot already

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, geez. I didn't even notice that he was in the BB. Yes, I think this is a call.

microbet
10-25-2005, 04:02 AM
I call with 66.

Scuba Chuck
10-25-2005, 04:04 AM
[ QUOTE ]

I would lean towards calling. Opponent is so short that his range should be quite loose. Meanwhile you have 1/5th of your effective stack in the pot already

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there any opponent here you would fold to?

Shillx
10-25-2005, 04:05 AM
You have to call here unless he is a rock. Take a +EV gamble while you can.

Bonafone
10-25-2005, 04:14 AM
I call here, but I don't like it much.

tigerite
10-25-2005, 04:18 AM
[ QUOTE ]

I would lean towards calling. Opponent is so short that his range should be quite loose. Meanwhile you have 1/5th of your effective stack in the pot already

[/ QUOTE ]

So would I. But it depends on the opponent to an extent

JudoGirl
10-25-2005, 04:54 AM
The life of a short stack is short and painful. you may as well gamble up here...

raptor517
10-25-2005, 04:59 AM
yer in the bb here. ridiculously easy call. holla