nut flush hand from Stars $10 rebuy

[Che]

No solid read, but I suspect opponent is decent (i.e. above average for $10 rebuy)

Blinds 1000/2000/a100

2 folds, MP limp (61K), fold, Hero calls with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif (75K), fold, SB completes (51K), BB checks (131K).

Flop: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif (Pot=8800)

Check, monster BB minbets 2000, MP raises to 9999, Hero calls, blinds fold.

Turn: Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif (Pot~32,798)

Check, check.

River: 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

MP leads for 12K. He has ~37K behind. Hero has ~62K.

What should hero do? Why?

Comments on earlier streets also welcome.

Thanks,
Che

[Matador225]

I probably just call here. If he is somewhat insightful he probably realizes there is a decent chance you have a flush draw on the flop.

Checking the turn would be consistent with pocket sixes if he suspects you made your flush.

His river bet also makes a full house look possible as he would expect you to reraise if you did make your flush and then he could push in the remainder of his stack.

[AtticusFinch]

Ugh, I hate catching a flush with a card that pairs the board. I think you're ahead most of the time, here. The only hands you're really worried about are 66 and kq. QQ and KK are unlikely because he limped, and Q6 and Q2 are unlikely unless he's a total donk.

Best cases are TPTK (maybe with a spade), a lower flush, or something like QJ. All are possible. He probably only calls a push with the second two.

EDIT: Whoops, misread the hand. With him leading out, I push. I think you're ahead more often than you're behind here.

[SossMan]

weird check on the turn. What do you make of the monsterBB's minbet on the flop? is it likely that he's simply isolating this weak bet? Was the monster BB doing this often?

I'm torn between just calling, minraising, and pushing..

I just call, he could have 66 or possibly KQ with the raise on the flop trying to push out any draws, then slowing down on the turn could me he is trying ot trap with the full house. I don't like a push because if you get a call, there's a good chance it is the full house. If you call and do lose, you still have 25bb and plenty of room to work

[LethalRose]

what does checking the turn accomplish?

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you make of the monsterBB's minbet on the flop? is it likely that he's simply isolating this weak bet? Was the monster BB doing this often?

[/ QUOTE ]

Monster BB was making a lot of weak flop bets (and they were +EV on FE alone).

Since I gave MP credit for being at least semi-intelligent, I couldn't narrow his range much on the flop since he would probably raise with a set/two-pair to charge the draws while also raising with air to punish the big stack's lagginess - maybe not always raising with air due to my presence in the hand, but I had to consider it.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
what does checking the turn accomplish?

[/ QUOTE ]

Induces a river bluff from marginal hands...and the bluff could easily be all-in since villain only has 1.5*pot in his stack.

Also, keeps the pot small if the river pairs (or trips) the board, but the bluff inducement is by far the more important factor IMHO.

[adanthar]

I played a kinda similar hand recently (with deeper stacks) where I close to minraised the river intending to fold to a push. (Then I called the push anyway and lost because sometimes, I'm a donkey.)

Despite the shallow stacks here, I would almost be OK with a minraise/fold solely because you are ahead most of the time and a minraise will be called by a lot of worse hands (such as a decent king) that will fold to a push. I haven't thought this through very well yet, though...but I've been just calling a lot of these blocking bets lately and I think that this is wrong more often than right.

[Jason Strasser]

Problem with calling the flop is that hands wont pay you off when you get there sometimes. If you get it all in you arent far behind and better hands will fold to a flop raise. Plus if you get it all in and hit they pay you off /images/graemlins/laugh.gif.

I'm going to bet the turn 100% of the time though because there are hands that will pay you off now and not later when another spade or other card kills your action. Also some combo-draw hands may CR the turn.

On the river I probably raise but I'm really not going to be in that spot so often. In general i think your line is not so cohesive street to street.

[mj12]

i am torn between making it 24 or calling. You are not ahead of many hands (ak, smaller flush) and even fewer that call all in. I lean towards call just because i will be sick when he rr me all in.

[adanthar]

If he pushes to a raise you're getting 3.5:1 on the call. I've never, ever (ever ever ever) seen that be a bluff, and if he's decent it will not be a flush. I think that's a safe fold, actually.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
If he pushes to a raise you're getting 3.5:1 on the call. I've never, ever (ever ever ever) seen that be a bluff, and if he's decent it will not be a flush. I think that's a safe fold, actually.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think so after the turn goes check check.

he could be value pushing a Q there after the chch turn.

i think that I'm minraising and calling a push (unhappily)

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
MP leads for 12K. He has ~37K behind. Hero has ~62K.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero raises to 29K (17K more). Villain quickly pushes.

Hero must call 20K of his remaining 33K or fold. Pot odds are 37:1. Well, not really, but they're better than 5:1. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Hero calls thinking villain will have Qx/AA/AK/BS often enough to justify the call.

Thoughts?

[TheJackal]

If you can put him on 1 hand outside of a full house, you have to call given the pot odds. He could have AQ, QJ, smaller flush, AK. I think I clarify things on the turn and throw out a big bet, the pot is already sizable, I don't like having to guess if my hand is good on the river. But given how you played it, call and hope he doesn't have the one likely hand given the action: KQ.

[rockythecat99]

I call and puke when he shows me KQ. Something like this happened to me. The only difference is that I got my flush on the river which paired the board. I called and of course he hit his boat. Oh well.

[schwza]

haven't read the thread....

pre-flop: fine.
flop: i would push here. it's a big bet, but a pot-sized raise would be up to 10k + 31k = 41k, so making it 73k is not crazy. blinds need Q6/K6/KQ/66, and villain needs KQ/66 to call (or trapping QQ/KK/AA/AK, but AA/AK might fold). and obviously if you do get called, you're not in horrible shape.

my problem with the flat call is that you look like you're on a flush draw. if villain has a hand like KJ, i think he's shutting down pretty quickly when the flush card gets there. what was your plan if BB reraised? his hand is looking less and less like 1 pair, but you still have a monster draw.

if you push and win the pot, you increase your stack by ~21k, over 25%. i'd try to do that.

turn: villain could have a pretty wide range right now. it includes 66 and KQ, but the most likely hands are Kx and (less likely) Qx. if he has Qx, you hate to check. villain has 10 outs to beat you, and 8 spades kill your action (if he doesn't have the J /images/graemlins/spade.gif). also, if he has a small flush and the board double pairs, you're gonna kick yourself.

i bet here. he has 49k left in a pot of 32, i'll bet 18k. the downside of this line is that he might get away from Kx where he would put in one more bet on the river. but Kx still has 4 outs, and there's no guarantee he'll fold to a bet on the turn (or that he'll call one on the river, especially if another /images/graemlins/spade.gif hits.) and yes, btw, i am very willing to go broke here.

river: i never say this, but i'd hit him with the min raise. you want Kx to call a bet, and there's not much more he's gonna call. you lose some value vs. Qx, but Kx is more likely. and call a push.

[gp?]

call the river. seems too much like KQ...

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What do you make of the monsterBB's minbet on the flop? is it likely that he's simply isolating this weak bet? Was the monster BB doing this often?

[/ QUOTE ]

Monster BB was making a lot of weak flop bets (and they were +EV on FE alone).

Since I gave MP credit for being at least semi-intelligent, I couldn't narrow his range much on the flop since he would probably raise with a set/two-pair to charge the draws while also raising with air to punish the big stack's lagginess - maybe not always raising with air due to my presence in the hand, but I had to consider it.

[/ QUOTE ]

bah... put in original post.

this makes me raise the river more (i want to more, not a bigger raise), if villain is more likely to raise flop with a flush draw.

[Che]

He had KQ for the flopped 2-pair/turned boat.

I *almost* just called the river and kicked myself for raising.

My flop, turn and river decisions were all questionable so I guess I got what I deserved. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Thanks to all who replied!

Che