Seeing monsters or boxing clever?

[Guy McSucker]

Is this clever or stupid? It's a fine line...

Four handed Party $5/10. UTG/CO, who is decent, limps. I raise with two tens on the button. BB calls and UTG limp-reraises. Hmmm. I call and BB calls.

Flop: A T T.

Checked to me, I bet, BB folds and UTG calls.

Turn: 3.

He checks, I bet, he raises, I 3-bet, he caps, I call.

River: A.

He bets. I call.

So? Am I seeing monsters or is this the right play? Or can I fold?

Guy.

[RunDownHouse]

I would raise before I fold. I think you see a big A go bonkers here often enough, especially 4-handed.

[skiier04]

Raise but its close

In my donkish mind

[Spartan1983]

If your not going to cap with quads, then yea I think your seeing monsters. He's not slowing down with a fullhouse, bet, if he has AA, tell him NH.

[JoshuaD]

That's actually rough.

My first instinct was "there's exactly one hand beating you, push it."

Then I realized he really doesn't have anything else here. He's capping the turn with just an A, and AA lines up perfectly with him LRR'ing.

AK is a possibility, but it doesn't seem likely enough to me to warrant a river raise.

I think a call is good here. Be careful not to over-apply this though, this is a really particular situation.


edit: TT just pointed out that 33 is a possibility too. I don't see people LRR with low PP's too often, but it's another possible holding for sure.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
If your not going to cap with quads, then yea I think your seeing monsters. He's not slowing down with a fullhouse, bet, if he has AA, tell him NH.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really think a "decent player" caps on this turn without AA? He could be overplaying AK, but I don't think that accounts for 66% of his holdings (which we'd need to wanna raise this river).

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]
If your not going to cap with quads, then yea I think your seeing monsters. He's not slowing down with a fullhouse, bet, if he has AA, tell him NH.

[/ QUOTE ]

The way I see it, he's told me loud and clear on three streets that he has AA. The question is whether I should listen, and if so, how hard?

Guy.

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
The way I see it, he's told me loud and clear on three streets that he has AA. The question is whether I should listen, and if so, how hard?

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think its ok the way it is. Yes, he's decent so its hard to put him on a hand other than AA. I think that goes double when you think about what he thinks you have. PF button raise/no cap can mean a lot of hands, but probably not big PPs or big aces. Flop you bet when checked to, doesn't mean a whole lot. Your turn 3bet defines your hand pretty well though. Its an A, a lone T, or 33. But he caps anyways. This tells me he has AA, a big A, 33, and that's about it.

It breaks down a bit on the river, because he doesn't fear TT - that would be seeing monsters - so he'd lead with any A, figuring its a split at worst and at best you'll misclick/fold.

Given all that, I don't think you're ahead enough to raise here. But I'm no Hellmuth so I call.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
But I'm no Hellmuth so I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding here would be terrible. We've got him beat a good percentage of the time. It's just a question of whether we get a value from a raise -- or more clearly, if we're good here > 66% of the time. In this very particular hand, I don't think we have that much of an over.

[cockandbull]

Four handed, i like to cap the river as well. this seems way like a really silly way to play AA, esp if you plan on llr. I think he may well have something like AK, AQ, 33 etc.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

It's just a question of whether we get a value from a raise -- or more clearly, if we're good here > 66% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

I see this 66% thing mentioned from time to time and I never understand it. Why does a value raise have to be with a hand that's ahead over two thirds of the time?

Guy.

[cartman]

He has AA. You "know" it, I "know" it, we all "know" it. But by my estimate there are about 15 BB in the pot after he bets the river. The question is whether "know" means more than 93.75% certain. It is a fact that people have an extremely difficult time accurately gauging low probability events. 1 in 10 feels like never just like 1 in 20, 1 in 30, or 1 in 50 does. I think Small Stakes Hold em says something along the lines that we can rarely be over 90% sure of anything in this game. I would throw up as soon as I saw the Ace on the river then call the bet. I think raising is out of question.

Cartman

[Nietzsche]

You made one giant mistake: Not choosing a bad beat table for this hand. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I don't see any mistake in the way the hand was played though. I don't see him playing AK this way on the turn so I don't think you have a raise here. Fold is out of the question IMO.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If your not going to cap with quads, then yea I think your seeing monsters. He's not slowing down with a fullhouse, bet, if he has AA, tell him NH.

[/ QUOTE ]

The way I see it, he's told me loud and clear on three streets that he has AA. The question is whether I should listen, and if so, how hard?

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

You played it perfectly. I wish I would play it that way in your shoes but I'm sure I would raise the river.

Krishan

[Nietzsche]

[ QUOTE ]
I wish I would play it that way in your shoes but I'm sure I would raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
After looking at the hand closely it is obviously not a raise but in the heat of the moment I probably raise 9 out of 10 times. Still have some way to go...