AA on a dry board

[jjacky]

a friend of mine sent me the following hand.

villain is 30/10/2 and 30$ went to SD over 100 hands. no further reads.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero ($60.20)
MP ($50)
CO ($52.05)
Button ($38.15)
SB ($57.35)
BB ($40.35)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, MP calls $1.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB (poster) calls $1.25, BB calls $1.

Flop: ($6) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, MP calls $5, SB calls $5, BB folds.

Turn: ($21) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, MP calls $15, SB folds.

River: ($51) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ??? (effective stacks of 28.50 left)


comments regarding the turn are appreciated too.

[Hattifnatt]

Sure looks like villian can have a 5. I think I check and call here to induce a bluff from a missed flushdraw.

If he's got trips - so be it. I pay him off.

[stu-unger]

i like a push here. the reason being the pot is going to lay u like 3 to 1 if u check and he pushes and he hasnt given me any reason to think my hand is no good. and if he does have a made hand he is going to check behind and we are going to lose value. if i had a read i may play it different.

ps raise more pf...

[ QUOTE ]
Sure looks like villian can have a 5. I think I check and call here to induce a bluff from a missed flushdraw.

If he's got trips - so be it. I pay him off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very unlikely he'd have a busted flush draw considering it was a runner runner and he was heavily raised. This is a check-call to me, he's slow playing the trips or he holds a T (maybe two?).

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sure looks like villian can have a 5. I think I check and call here to induce a bluff from a missed flushdraw.

If he's got trips - so be it. I pay him off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very unlikely he'd have a busted flush draw considering it was a runner runner and he was heavily raised. This is a check-call to me, he's slow playing the trips or he holds a T (maybe two?).

[/ QUOTE ]

why do you want to check/call if you put him on this range? do you think he is more likely to push with a pair of Ts than calling a push with it?

[Bukem_]

Gonna lose almost all of the time you check call this river, and you are missing value from marginal hands that are committed at this point.

[Hattifnatt]

Ok - missed it was a runnerrunner, will read the posts more carefully. But I think a c/c is best anyway.

I would bet 10$ and call a push. (most likely losing if that happens). I think your hand is good here and at best villan has JJ,QQ,

[Malachii]

I don't see much harm in checking the turn, although against two opponents that's generally a risky proposition. Honestly if it's me I'm betting $15 and folding to a raise, but people on this forum don't like to fold getting a good price on their money even when it's obvious they're beaten. If you're not going to fold to a raise then you might as well just bet however much you think he'll call with a T.

Slow playing trips and T's is the worst case scenario i should have said. The $15 could have been called because he held the K but still feared the 5's.

Check-called was my first reaction but thinking about it more I think a pair of K's is the most likely hand. $10 -15 bet and call a push is what i NOW would do.

[Malachii]

[ QUOTE ]

Gonna lose almost all of the time you check call this river, and you are missing value from marginal hands that are committed at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]
He's right. Betting is the play here... any T checks behind, and any 5 bets.

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
Slow playing trips and T's is the worst case scenario i should have said. The $15 could have been called because he held the K but still feared the 5's.

Check-called was my first reaction but thinking about it more I think a pair of K's is the most likely hand. $10 -15 bet and call a push is what i NOW would do.

[/ QUOTE ]


i don't see any reason to put him on a pair of kings. can you help me out with the reasoning please?

[Hattifnatt]

Maybe villian got a look of the card that should fell on the river before it came out?

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe villian got a look of the card that should fell on the river before it came out?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, i thought about it. but why wasn't he able to figure out that hero has him beat anyway? can he only determine the future cards on the board? questions over questions...

[Hattifnatt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe villian got a look of the card that should fell on the river before it came out?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, i thought about it. but why wasn't he able to figure out that hero has him beat anyway? can he only determine the future cards on the board? questions over questions...

[/ QUOTE ]
He probably know that too, but setting this up to bust villiam in a huge pot later on when both get monsterhands.

(Don't take it to hard Me'Dolh, we of course know that you just did a little mistake-post, no problem)