Darn bottom set

How do I get out of situations like this?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 ($5.70)
Hero ($27.10)
MP2 ($11.40)
CO ($10)
Button ($11.85)
SB ($27.15)
BB ($24.65)
UTG ($17.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.25) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.8</font>, BB calls $0.80, UTG folds, Hero calls $0.80, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $3.5</font>, CO folds, SB folds, BB folds, Hero ???

Egads. Tough spot, looks a lot like a flush, but I play it the same, and then push when it comes back to you.

If he's got the flush, it's a $2 mistake as opposed to folding, so as long as there's a small chance you are ahead, against say AxQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif, then it's ok I reckon. A higher set is way unlikely.

I don't think flat-calling is any better, because he will most likely bet the turn with a flush, and you only have 7 outs to fill on the turn

So unless you are 100% sure he has the flush, I push.

[Malachii]

You really need to raise this flop. Push when it gets back to you. This looks exactly like a good ace trying to protect its hand.

[slydeni]

yah i agree-

a big re-rz or push here i think.
i dont think someone who flopped nuts is gonna play it that fast. he cdould have a weaker flush and just trying to get higher cards out and wion right there.

even if he calls you have a decent cvhance of pairing the board. so with your chancxes of winning, along with chances that you are already ahead... id put some heat on him.

some reads on players would help here too...

sly

yep, push. You're not really afraid of a higher set, and even if he hit his flush, you have at least 7 outs on the turn to fill up, and you have even more if the turn is a blank.

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You really need to raise this flop. Push when it gets back to you. This looks exactly like a good ace trying to protect its hand.

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What's wrong with calling and waiting for a non-spade turn to bet/raise?

This might be a tougher spot if villain is deeper. He isn't, so I push and hope to fill up. He could be doing this with a number of hands you beat, a big spade, pair+ a big spade, or a less likely two pair. The doubt about whether or not he's flopped a flush makes me lean towards pushing.

Pushing is fairly extreme when all he raised to was $3.50. If you get called after you pushed, what do you think he'll call with? A flush and thats you almost dead. A large enough reraise would tell you if he has it right now and you can fold in the face of a reraise all-in avoiding excessive losses.

Edit: He's almost pot commited.... forget what i said

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some reads on players would help here too...

sly

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I had nothing - been at the table for 2 minutes and he folded both hands.

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Pushing is fairly extreme when all he raised to was $3.50. If you get called after you pushed, what do you think he'll call with? A flush and thats you almost dead. A large enough reraise would tell you if he has it right now and you can fold in the face of a reraise all-in avoiding excessive losses.

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A large enough reraise is pretty much all in for villain. If its not, he'll come over the top with his petty chips anyway.

damn you were quick to reply!! I edited the post because i didnt realise that

[Malachii]

[ QUOTE ]
What's wrong with calling and waiting for a non-spade turn to bet/raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
Protect your hand. Letting Villain overcall with the nut draw at the right price isn't forcing them into a mistake. This isn't limit... you can set an incorrect price for your opposition, so you should take advantage of this.

Well he didn't know villian was interested in the hand

The way I see it, if the turn is a non-spade your equity is larger, and it's likely SB or BB will bet into you

I don't mind giving up the pot ~20% of the time in order to be in this situation the other ~80% of the time

edit: and you can still call a non-spade turn if you think some one has the Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif

[Malachii]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mind giving up the pot ~20% of the time in order to be in this situation the other ~80% of the time


[/ QUOTE ] I'd rather have Villain be making a mistake by calling me. If he wants to get allin on the flop with ~30% equity against me, I'm happy. But I see your point.

Hero folds, like the scared little girl that he is. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Malachii]

Ewwwwwww

[Hattifnatt]

He has only $10, I push here for sure.

Thats pretty much my feeling about it now that ive had some time for reflection too.

[kurto]

I'm a little confused why everyone pretends someone doesn't have a made flush here. Its a limped pot. All sorts of suited connectors could have played here.

I think the one who raised played it exactly how someone with a weak made flush would play it.

People seem to always think on a monotone flop that people are drawing for the flush, when in reality, a lot of people, particularly at the $25 tables, play any 2 suited.

If this was a raised pot, it would be less likely to put someone on a flush (only because Ax and Kx would be out).

Personally, I don't think this is the time to go nuts with bottom set.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a little confused why everyone pretends someone doesn't have a made flush here. Its a limped pot. All sorts of suited connectors could have played here.

I think the one who raised played it exactly how someone with a weak made flush would play it.

People seem to always think on a monotone flop that people are drawing for the flush, when in reality, a lot of people, particularly at the $25 tables, play any 2 suited.

If this was a raised pot, it would be less likely to put someone on a flush (only because Ax and Kx would be out).

Personally, I don't think this is the time to go nuts with bottom set.

[/ QUOTE ]

fully agree

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a little confused why everyone pretends someone doesn't have a made flush here. Its a limped pot. All sorts of suited connectors could have played here.

I think the one who raised played it exactly how someone with a weak made flush would play it.

People seem to always think on a monotone flop that people are drawing for the flush, when in reality, a lot of people, particularly at the $25 tables, play any 2 suited.

If this was a raised pot, it would be less likely to put someone on a flush (only because Ax and Kx would be out).

Personally, I don't think this is the time to go nuts with bottom set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he probably has the flush too. Probably. Even if he's got it 80% of the time it's an easy push.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he probably has the flush too. Probably. Even if he's got it 80% of the time it's an easy push.

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I'm not sure I understand this. I forget my numbers for boating up with 2 cards to come, but I'm pretty sure its less then 30% of the time, no? I don't think the pot odds are there.

Am I off here?

I think he's a little over 33% to make a boat by the river... Ran it through one calculator and got 34%, though I thought it was more like 38 when I did it in my head.

At any rate, I'd push this hand.

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I think he probably has the flush too. Probably. Even if he's got it 80% of the time it's an easy push.

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I'm not sure I understand this. I forget my numbers for boating up with 2 cards to come, but I'm pretty sure its less then 30% of the time, no? I don't think the pot odds are there.

Am I off here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'm too lazy to do the math exactly, but from rough estimates, if villian has a flush it's about a $2 mistake. If Villian has AxQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif, or any other non-flush hand (besides a higher set) and calls, Villian gains about $9 on average, or more if he calls with two pair or something. Even if villian folds to the push, Hero gains $8 (what's in the pot)

so, 9 * 20% &gt; 2 * 80% hence +EV

feel free to check the math though

[Finite_Risk]

I think your math is close enough to correct...although I think villian calling with anything other than the flush or AxQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif is more remote.

Unless he's sandbagging, no preflop raise lowers prob of AA, KK and AK....A5 should be low prob cuz hero has 2 5's....K5 makes no sense to limp....

Would a baby flush (7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif) fold to a push here? (might be the way I play Q10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif here, cold calling then pushing if raised) That equity probably makes this okay.

[Mercman572]

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I think he probably has the flush too. Probably. Even if he's got it 80% of the time it's an easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I understand this. I forget my numbers for boating up with 2 cards to come, but I'm pretty sure its less then 30% of the time, no? I don't think the pot odds are there.

Am I off here?

[/ QUOTE ]

i was very surprised to see this when I entered it on twodime. hero is almost 50-50 against a flush. something seem off?

http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&amp;b=&amp;d=As+Ks+5S&amp;h=5d+5h%0D%0A6s+7s

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I think he probably has the flush too. Probably. Even if he's got it 80% of the time it's an easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I understand this. I forget my numbers for boating up with 2 cards to come, but I'm pretty sure its less then 30% of the time, no? I don't think the pot odds are there.

Am I off here?

[/ QUOTE ]

i was very surprised to see this when I entered it on twodime. hero is almost 50-50 against a flush. something seem off?

http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&amp;b=&amp;d=As+Ks+5S&amp;h=5d+5h%0D%0A6s+7s

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ummm.....

WTF?!?

that can't be right....

edit: hehe, just realized you put those cards as dead cards, not flop cards

So it seems that my decision to fold was a bit on the weak side but not so much that I made a HUGE blunder.

SO I consider that an improvement. Last time I was so clearly wrong by folding it wasnt even funny. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Hattifnatt]

Here is the correct numbers:
http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&amp;b=As+Ks+5s&amp;d=&amp;h=5d+5h%0D%0A6s+7s