Sometimes Monsters Are REAL

[Danenania]

How much action are you giving in each of these? Please back up your answers.

HAND 1

Villain is 13/8/2 over 250 hands.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero...


HAND 2

Villain is 21/1/0.5 over 150 hands.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls, BB folds.

Turn: (5.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero...

[sthief09]

in hand 1 it's 2-1 that you're looking at AJ vs 88 or JJ, and it's less likely that he'd 3-bet AJ preflop, and he has I think 8 outs if behind, and you have only 1, so it's a call. hand 2 you're looking at KK, QQ, KQ. since it's the 4th bet on the turn and this guy won't be check-raising you, I'd go ahead and cap it since you're going to see KQ slightly more often than KK/QQ

[Danenania]

Forgot to include another fairly important stat. MP3 in Hand 1 is 20/9 PF.

[Justin A]

Hand 1 you're looking at JJ and 88 as the only reasonable hands that beats you, and I'd say you're up against AJ or a badly played overpair much more often. I'm capping the turn and calling one raise on the river.

Hand 2 I like calling the 3bet and raising the river. I like this better than either capping and calling the river or capping and raising the river.

[blackize]

Keep in mind I dont play 20/40. Also neither hand is shorthanded...

In hand 1 I call the raise and bet call the river(assuming it isn't an A or K)

Given the action preflop J8/J6 isn't a possibility, and 88 is very unlikely(13/8 players aren't 3 betting with 88). JJ is a logical holding, but is he the type to overplay AA/KK or maybe even AJs in this case?

In hand 2 I cap the turn and call the river. With .5 aggression he almost certainly has QQ KK or 44 and with numbers like his it is more likely QQ or KK.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]

Hand 2 I like calling the 3bet and raising the river. I like this better than either capping and calling the river or capping and raising the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

capping and calling the river 100% has to be better than both of those options. if this guy puts in another raise, he's got a bigger set.

[SomethingClever]

Hand 1: To be honest, I fold preflop. But that's another story. I'm trying to put myself in Button's shoes here. Does he really call your flop 3-bet and raise the turn with AA, KK or QQ? I doubt it. AJ, sure, but that's an unlikely 3-betting hand preflop for him. If I had the time during the hand to really think about this, I will just call his turn raise and call the river unless I quad up. On the fly, I probably 3-bet the turn and call down from there, though.

Hand 2: KQ is a lot more likely than KK or QQ. 44 also a possibility. I cap the turn for sure. Probably just call most rivers if he leads again, though.

[Nietzsche]

The first hand I cap the turn and bet/call the river. This can easily be AJ, AA or KK. Laggish?

The villian in hand two seems an unlikely fellow. I see very few of those but 150 hands isn't a lot either. I cap this turn and call on the river.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
To be honest, I fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

5.25:1 is too sweet to pass up.

Hi Danenania-

I'm afraid of monsters too, going back to age 5 and a fear of scary creatures in the closet. But most the time they're imaginary, and losing sleep, or potential value when you have a set, is irrational. You're running into an overset maybe one out of 30 times (no I don't have exact math on this but it was chatted about recently in the probability forum.) Because oversets are rare, I want to get in as many bets as possible without spewing.

Hand 1: Keep betting. I want 3 more bets in the pot here with my under full.
His range appears to be AA-TT, AK, AKs maybe AQs. Could he bet AJs here preflop, if he perceived MP3 to be raising light, or does he think that much? Someone with an 8 % PFR doesn't 3-bet pocket 8s unless he's doing it against a suspected steal, but you haven't indicated whether MP3 makes moves. J8 is of course not realistic. Villain has a high enough aggression factor he's easily waiting until the turn to raise his AA-QQ. Also, his fear that you have the jack is probably countered by the fact that you bet the turn - if you really had trips you might be inclined to C/R there. His line is also consistent with AJs, if indeed he'd raise that preflop. I say 3-bet the turn. If he caps it, call it and call down his river bet. If he just calls, bet the river and call his raise if there is one. Anything more than 3 bets and I have an uncomfortable feeling we're beat all too often here.

Hand 2: This one feels more like he's beating us. Still, we have a set and because UTG didn't raise, KQ seems a whole lot more likely than KK (wouldn't he limp/rr that?). QQ is a very possible hand here esp with 1 % pfr. More reads would help. As is I think we're beat but there's 9 ways to make KQ, against 3 ways for KK and 3 ways for QQ. Because you titled this "Monsters are Real" I'm advocating calling down. In the heat of the moment however, I'm probably capping it and calling his river bet. Getting 1-2 bets in here seems best, although I'm not convinced a player with .5 AF 3-bets top two pair.

By the way, I'm new to HUSH, but is there a reason you're posting ring game questions in this forum?

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To be honest, I fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

5.25:1 is too sweet to pass up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a little girl when it comes to variance. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[blackize]

Everyone seems to be missing the fact that in hand 2 UTG is 21/ 1 /.5

He is tight. Yes he could be limping KQ here. Him not raising does not make KK/QQ any less likely. If anything I think it makes it more likely. I feel that with these stats villain understands to be tight in early position, but being superpassive nobody puts him on a limped big pair. When this .5 aggro guy puts in the 3rd bet on the turn I am pretty confident he has QQ or KK.

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone seems to be missing the fact that in hand 2 UTG is 21/ 1 /.5


[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't miss that. In fact, that explains my reticence to cap the turn even though I probably would without thinking about it. With 1 % PFR, though, he can still raise AA and KK every time. I think QQ is a lot more likely than KK especially as he passed his option to reraise after limping. Villain springing to life on the turn makes me think it's a split between KQ and QQ. More combos for KQ so I cap, but I realize an argument can easily be made to call down.

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone seems to be missing the fact that in hand 2 UTG is 21/ 1 /.5

He is tight. Yes he could be limping KQ here. Him not raising does not make KK/QQ any less likely. If anything I think it makes it more likely. I feel that with these stats villain understands to be tight in early position, but being superpassive nobody puts him on a limped big pair. When this .5 aggro guy puts in the 3rd bet on the turn I am pretty confident he has QQ or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't miss that. A vpip of 21 includes lots of hands; he just doesn't raise many of them. That's why I think 44 could easily be a part of his range.

Seriously though, KQs, UTG. A 21/1 guys limps that every time, don't you think?

[Catt]

I call the turn raise in Hand 1. If I thought he could massively overplay an overpair, then I would three-bet, but, just based on the small stat read, I'm not sure I could assume he would make such an overplay with the 2 Js on the board. That leaves, I think AJs, JJ, and 88 as reasonable holdings, I'm I'm a bit unsure that a 13/8 will always three-bet 88 pre-flop. Again, if I thought he could play his KK or whatever like this, and he very well might, I'd three-bet it, but as it stands I see 2 possible AJs (would he 3-bet AJo? I don't think so), 1 possible JJ, 3 possible 88 though somewhat less likely I think, and a number of possible overpair hands, though also somewhat unlikely, I think.

Hand 2 I cap the turn without much worry. The aggressor is UTG who limped and didn't RR when given the opportunity. If his PFR were accurate despite the small sample size, it means he could limp QQ UTG, but he could just as easily limp KQ or even AQ (though quite a bit less likely holding given his turn play and post-flop timidity when a K falls). His turn action is worrisome given his post-flop AF, but we're looking at only a 150 hand sample. I'm willing to cap here on the premise that he's got QQ or KQ, KQ is combinatorically more likely, and also slightly more likely for a limp pre-flop, and I can't get 5-bet here on the turn meaning by capping I know no more than 2 additional BBs go in before showdown if I cap and choose to call a river lead (44 is also possible, too). And that feels right to me.

[blackize]

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously though, KQs, UTG. A 21/1 guys limps that every time, don't you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I suppose he could if he just played tight in all positions. I suppose I would like to see his positional breakdown to really have an idea, but the real question is, does a player like this put in this many bets with two pair?

[Nietzsche]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone seems to be missing the fact that in hand 2 UTG is 21/ 1 /.5


[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't miss it either but remember this is over 150 hands only. You get KK (or QQ) once every 221 hands on average so this number can be misleading, maybe his real number is 3%. 9 combinations of KQ, 6 of KK/QQ but those have to be discounted some (50%) due to the small number of hands meaning the stat inaccurate. There are 3 combinations of 44 that will also play this way. You have to cap the turn possibly even raise the river.

[sthief09]

also, this is a decent player who could/should fold that badly played overpair

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To be honest, I fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

5.25:1 is too sweet to pass up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a little girl when it comes to variance. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


not that much variance.

87.5% or whatever you fold
2.5% you lose a huge pot
9% you win a huge pot

[baronzeus]

with no straights or flushes and no raise preflop in hand 2, i cap the turn. if he leadds the river i puss out and call.

in hand one, i honeslty think he 3bets 88 preflop and the only other hands that really makes sense is AJ or JJ...i dont know, i probably 3bet it in the heat of the moment but it may be wrong.

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To be honest, I fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

5.25:1 is too sweet to pass up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a little girl when it comes to variance. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


not that much variance.

87.5% or whatever you fold
2.5% you lose a huge pot
9% you win a huge pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I'm a dumb little girl.

[Jeff W]

Hand 2 I like cap turn/call river.

Hand 1 is trickier. I hate 3-betting, that's all I'm sure of. I'd call down because it is so transparent that we have a monster here and he doesn't appear to care.

[Danenania]

Does anyone consider 3-betting and folding to a cap in hand 1?

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone consider 3-betting and folding to a cap in hand 1?

[/ QUOTE ]


never.

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone consider 3-betting and folding to a cap in hand 1?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. I need a solid, non-statistical, read to employ this play against anyone.

Besides, I'm pretty sure if you did a 6 would've fallen on the river and you would have beat his 88 FH.

[Danenania]

Nice discussion here. I'd say that so far I agree with what seems to be the general consensus on both these hands--calling down in hand 1 and capping then calling the river in hand 2.

As it went down, I stupidly gave way too much action on both of these hands without really pausing to think about hand ranges. These hands happened within about 30 seconds of each other on separate tables and I was very annoyed with myself after. I lost both if that isn't clear. Hand 1 to JJ and hand 2 to KK.

Here's another hypothetical: say I cap the turn and get checkraised on a blank river in hand 2. Could I fold it?