River play, heads up, OOP

[cold_cash]

This isn't a super exciting hand but I'll bet it's a spot we find ourselves in quite a bit, and I thought it might be good to get the wheels turning a little bit.


UTG is a decent player, but he plays too tightly and doesn't raise enough before the flop, especially in a shorthanded game.

(I hate putting up stats but he's about a 15/8 guy, ~30% WTSD, 200 hands or so. He seems very agressive after the flop, however.)

The scene: Online, 6-handed.

UTG raises, everyone folds, I 3-bet J/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif from the BB, UTG calls.

Heads up, 6 small bets.

Flop: 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif

I bet, UTG calls.

Heads up, 4 big bets.

Turn: Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif

I bet, UTG calls.

Heads up, 6 big bets.

River: 7/images/graemlins/club.gif


What's my best play on the river?

[MrWookie47]

I think you bet. A high and smaller pairs will call you more times than he has a Q. But is this guy aggressive enough to bet more than those when checked to? I'm still leaning towards a bet. I don't think he raises the river often enough with something that doesn't beat Qx, so we can fold to a raise.

[milesdyson]

if you check, he may not bet 99/TT/AK, but if you bet he will call with them - maybe not AK, but you get the point.

i really don't like check calling against guys who are prone to be passive (edit: missed the "very aggressive" part - it doesn't change my mind. i'd need you to tell me you've seen him bet very poor hands when checked to).

if he's been slowplaying AA/KK/QQ and he plans to raise the river, i am folding anyway. if i check and call, i still think he doesn't bet some hands that he would call with. i always want one bet to go in here, and i'd rather bet and have him call than check and have him bet.

[detruncate]

I routinely check/call here vs a "very aggressive" post flop player.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
i really don't like check calling against guys who are prone to be passive.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
He seems very agressive after the flop, however.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah these are really tough spots. I think in this case I probably bet/fold, hoping to get a call from AK or AJ or a PP smaller than yours. This changes if you think he can raise the river with a hand that you beat. Probably then I c/c or bet/call if he is bluff raising a lot.

I'd bet the river and pray he wasn't sandbagging and then raises you. He may have been chasing overcards and you hope he'd fold to the river bet.

If he is that tight though I wouldn't be surprised if he showed you a pocket pair 10 or higher. (EDIT: 10's or JJ since he didn't cap pf.)

I'd be weary of 3-betting pf in the BB because you're first to act on the rest of the betting rounds. But since you did I'd bet to the river.

[cold_cash]

I'm fairly confident he would bet the river with any pair he deemed good enough to raise with pre-flop.

In other words, I would expect him to bet JJ-88 a vast majority of the time, and AK much of the time as well, though not as often.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly confident he would bet the river with any pair he deemed good enough to raise with pre-flop.

In other words, I would expect him to bet JJ-88 a vast majority of the time, and AK much of the time as well, though not as often.

[/ QUOTE ]
this is a very easy check/call then.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly confident he would bet the river with any pair he deemed good enough to raise with pre-flop.

In other words, I would expect him to bet JJ-88 a vast majority of the time, and AK much of the time as well, though not as often.

[/ QUOTE ]

You gotta tells us this stuff in the OP, b/c what it really comes down to what you mean by aggressive post flop: does he bluff raise? Is he going to bet JJ or AK when checked to, etc.

[lautzutao]

Hmm, he's very aggressive after the flop but passive before...if I'm reading that correctly he would have let you know if he beat this board yes?

Then again, what is he calling with here that you beat if you bet...seems like a bit of a paradox /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, he's very aggressive after the flop but passive before...if I'm reading that correctly he would have let you know if he beat this board yes?

Then again, what is he calling with here that you beat if you bet...seems like a bit of a paradox /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Well he probably call with AK. If he called the turn with JJ other pocket pair he is calling the river.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet the river and pray he wasn't sandbagging and then raises you. He may have been chasing overcards and you hope he'd fold to the river bet.

If he is that tight though I wouldn't be surprised if he showed you a pocket pair 10 or higher.

I'd be weary of 3-betting pf in the BB because you're first to act on the rest of the betting rounds. But since you did I'd bet to the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it would be great if he called a river bet w/ just overcards. The thing is, the only overcards he can have are exactly AK, and although I think he's likely to call a bet quite often with that hand, he might be more likely to bet with it. (I make more by checking and calling when he has AK than I do by betting. Maybe.)

I'm also fairly certain he would cap pre-flop with a big pair.

Yea, I'm not understanding how he is being "aggressive" post-flop if he is just calling you all the way.

Seems like he just wants to find out who has the higher pocket pair.

[shant]

I really wanted to say bet, but he sounds like someone who you feel could try and blow you off your hand with a river bluffraise. If your read is that he will bet pair hands he was going to call with, and possibly A-high, then I like a check/call against a player that aggressive.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
You gotta tells us this stuff in the OP, b/c what it really comes down to what you mean by aggressive post flop: does he bluff raise? Is he going to bet JJ or AK when checked to, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's not be unreasonable. If we knew the answer to all of those questions then there's nothing to think about.

[detruncate]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you bet. A high and smaller pairs will call you more times than he has a Q. But is this guy aggressive enough to bet more than those when checked to?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wonder the same thing. An aggressive player will probably conclude that we're trying to induce a bluff unless we've been getting sexy on the river a lot, but does that prevent him from betting his PPs? He's likely to be thinking that:

1) we want to see a showdown after we check since we probably bet most of the hands we're content to fold hoping we'll push him off a better no-pair hand.

2) we might be giving up

I agree with Miles that it's better to bet if he shows passive tendencies. I think this decision is closer.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly confident he would bet the river with any pair he deemed good enough to raise with pre-flop.

In other words, I would expect him to bet JJ-88 a vast majority of the time, and AK much of the time as well, though not as often.

[/ QUOTE ]

You gotta tells us this stuff in the OP, b/c what it really comes down to what you mean by aggressive post flop: does he bluff raise? Is he going to bet JJ or AK when checked to, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not too worried about a bluff-raise, but I guess it's always a possibility. Mostly I think he just value bets a lot.

Sorry for the confusion.

[lautzutao]

I guess I don't know this without a lot more information but if he's passive preflop what pocket pairs is he raising with UTG?

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I don't know this without a lot more information but if he's passive preflop what pocket pairs is he raising with UTG?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question.

Also note that he raised but didn't cap.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly confident he would bet the river with any pair he deemed good enough to raise with pre-flop.

In other words, I would expect him to bet JJ-88 a vast majority of the time, and AK much of the time as well, though not as often.

[/ QUOTE ]

You gotta tells us this stuff in the OP, b/c what it really comes down to what you mean by aggressive post flop: does he bluff raise? Is he going to bet JJ or AK when checked to, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not too worried about a bluff-raise, but I guess it's always a possibility. Mostly I think he just value bets a lot.

Sorry for the confusion.

[/ QUOTE ]

No problem at all, wasn't trying to be a jerk. But if you think he's value betting hands you beat a lot then it really changes things a lot, and I just check/call.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I don't know this without a lot more information but if he's passive preflop what pocket pairs is he raising with UTG?

[/ QUOTE ]
my guess is that his utg opening range is

88+ (maybe 77), AJo+ (maybe ATs), KQs+ (maybe KQo).

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I don't know this without a lot more information but if he's passive preflop what pocket pairs is he raising with UTG?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a 15/8 guy might be raising 1010 and 99, but who knows.

[TomBrooks]

Check/Call.

He will probably fold without a Queen or AA/KK but raise if he has one of those. You can probably fold if he raises, but it would be better to see the showdown for the same price of one bet.

[cold_cash]

Well, I figured he would bet/bluff with a couple more hands than he might call with, so I checked, he bet, I called, and he took the pot w/ AQ.

Meh.