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Bigwig
10-24-2005, 05:26 PM
Depending on what day of the week you speak to me, I'll be on the way to earning 200k+ per year within 2 years, or I'll be completely unsure of my ability to play winning poker.

This stems from individual sessions. My Friday session (my last) was break even. This, somehow, constitutes a total disaster in my mind. I don't have the confidence now that I had at 6:00 Friday evening when I sat down.

This is absurd, of course. I understand variance, and I know that having my confidence swing on such a small sample (and not THAT bad of one either) is crazy thinking. Yet, that is how I feel.

How does one combat it? Review past success? Remind yourself of these obvious facts? For me, a day break followed by a winning session usually does the trick.

But to maintain a levelhead, does it simply take time and constant reminders to yourself? Or are some people just inevitably going to suffer confidence variance?

raptor517
10-24-2005, 05:28 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I understand variance

[/ QUOTE ]

no you dont. learn to live it, and you will understand it. holla

Bigwig
10-24-2005, 05:29 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I understand variance

[/ QUOTE ]

no you dont. learn to live it, and you will understand it. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't tell me what I know! Blearrrrrghhhhh!!!!

zambonidrivr
10-24-2005, 05:30 PM
stop losing.
mix in a book, or some basic math.
if you are not comfortable, perhaps this is not the game for you. i am not trying to be a dick here, but i am suggesting that if you can't keep even tempered about this [censored], it's gonna affect your personal life and everyone involved (-ev).

Slim Pickens
10-24-2005, 05:40 PM
It's fine to feel bad about a losing session as long as you understand on an intellectual level that it means nothing. Let your emotions run their course without letting them change your logical thinking. I've always secretly hated the cockeyed optimists of the world who give you a "the sun will come out tomorrow" every time something genuinely bad happens.

When we all started playing poker, we were results-oriented. Did I win this hand? If not, that's bad and I did something wrong. Most people get the next step soon enough. "I was a 2:1 favorite when the chips went in so even though I lost I played correctly." Your obsession with winning and losing sessions is similar, so take the next step and get over it. You're obviously a winning player.

If you have to stop playing for a day to get over a bad session, your poor mental attitude is costing you one day's EV worth of $$$. I imagine this is a lot for you.

Bigwig
10-24-2005, 05:41 PM
Oy vei.

Bigwig
10-24-2005, 05:42 PM
[ QUOTE ]
It's fine to feel bad about a losing session as long as you understand on an intellectual level that it means nothing. Let your emotions run their course without letting them change your logical thinking. I've always secretly hated the cockeyed optimists of the world who give you a "the sun will come out tomorrow" every time something genuinely bad happens.

When we all started playing poker, we were results-oriented. Did I win this hand? If not, that's bad and I did something wrong. Most people get the next step soon enough. "I was a 2:1 favorite when the chips went in so even though I lost I played correctly." Your obsession with winning and losing sessions is similar, so take the next step and get over it. You're obviously a winning player.

If you have to stop playing for a day to get over a bad session, your poor mental attitude is costing you one day's EV worth of $$$. I imagine this is a lot for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

See, this is a good response.

tshort
10-24-2005, 05:57 PM
At the end of your sessions, take 15-30 minutes to review important hands or revisit close calls. If you feel you weren't making mistakes, then you should feel good about the session. If you made blatant mistakes... then you might have a reason to feel depressed about the session.

Lucid1
10-24-2005, 06:28 PM
My confidence as a poker player depends on whether i truly feel I have a nice edge at the lever I play at or not.

If I play 20+2, my confidence is high, even on bad streaks over a few hundred tournies - because I've played so many 20+2s and 30+3s - with a decent ROI - that I know it will all even out in the end.

This month, however - I moved up to 50+5, and my confidence at that level is still low.

I've played almost 1000 of them already, and I'm just slightly above break-even! I know this could be variance, but it certainly is a bad sign...

During the 1000 tournies I remember doing some pretty serious mistakes about 10 times (where I made some bad calls or bad bluffs in the early levels), but that in itself doesn't explain my bad results.

I was hoping I'd be a 10% ROI player at the 55s, because if I can't make about that I'd rather drop down again and make more money.

My plan was to play about 2000 50+5s before figuring out whether it's worth it for me to play them, or if I should rather stay in the lower levels.

Now I'm close to wimping out and dropping down. Haven't decided yet.

I doubt I'm a LOSING player in the 50+5s (you never know) - but so far my results aren't very encouraging ROIwise...

Anyway, poker isn't my only source of income, but it has been the most _steady_ part of my income for a while (I do sports betting too, and that is even streakier (due to low ROI and fewer games played per month)...

I try to not let the variance of "professional gambling" affect my mood, but it's certainly harder every time I try a new strategy/limit/etc - and haven't had enough tries at it that my sample size is big enough to confirm my strategy is any good /images/graemlins/smile.gif

10-24-2005, 06:29 PM
I know exactly what you are talking about. Thats why I take a slightly different approach then most on here. I play to maximize my ROI. So i want the most out of every dollar I buy in for. I would rather spend an additional 5 minutes trying to make the money, than to just push and say, either i hit it and keep playing or i miss and fire up a new one. that approach may maximize your $$/hr, but it still leaves me feeling like i could have done more.

What I have found for myself is that the stats are great barometers of your play, but the only one i truly care about is winning sessions. I let the software track my ITM%, ROI, etc, but i keep an excel spreadsheet that i track all deposits, withdrawals, and my overall +/-. so, at the end of the day, i put my final bankroll into my spreadsheet and it calculates my daily win/loss. i find my satisfaction knowing i was + for the day. it is not unusual for me to have 10-15 winning days in a row. rarely do i lose 2 and almost never 3 days in a row. My cut off for the day is when i am happy with my return. lets say i set the goal for 25 sngs for the day, but after your 5th set of 4, lets say you are up 4 buy ins...i would forego the final 5 and ensure myself a winning day. document it and crack myself a beer as a reward for another positive day.

sounds like we have similar hang ups in our thinking, and i may get flamed for being too results oriented, but you gotta do what works for you. coming from a similarly minded person, i make my cut off for the day a positive one! and, if it truly doesnt matter when you stop for the day (according to everyone on here) why not make yourself happy and cut yourself off when you are up? it doesnt matter in the long run if you play the final 5 of your goal today or tomorrow...as long as you play em.

freemoney
10-24-2005, 06:49 PM
most of the things in this thread are bad advice, no offense.

10-24-2005, 06:51 PM
i know most will think it is, but it works for me...

and as for bad advice, i see it all over here. just depends on who it comes from. I am experiencing success and dont mind sharing how i am doing it...whether it is wrong or not, thats cool. not trying to steer anyone wrong...

Slim Pickens
10-24-2005, 06:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
most of the things in this thread are bad advice, no offense.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that it is wrong to determine your quitting time by how much you are up or down. You're attaching your personal happiness to something that is essentially random: along the lines of Ralph Wiggum and the mailbox flag. Also, there's almost no way anyone could play ~6 4-table sets a day and say they usually go 15 days without a losing day, and rarely lose more than 2 days in a row. That's BS. Sorry.

10-24-2005, 07:02 PM
rereading my response, i guess i dont understand how it can be bad advice? that being, how you combat your emotional swings. its what i do, not saying it will work for everyone, but it is what i do. This isnt poker playing advice, its just how to keep poker from affecting your mental game...

on a side note...i showed in one thread where i said something and got flamed, but then a very, very respected poster said the exact same thing and it was LAW.

Poker is such a simple game, how the hell did it get so complicated?!!

zipppy
10-24-2005, 07:03 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I know exactly what you are talking about. Thats why I take a slightly different approach then most on here. I play to maximize my ROI. So i want the most out of every dollar I buy in for. I would rather spend an additional 5 minutes trying to make the money, than to just push and say, either i hit it and keep playing or i miss and fire up a new one. that approach may maximize your $$/hr, but it still leaves me feeling like i could have done more.

What I have found for myself is that the stats are great barometers of your play, but the only one i truly care about is winning sessions. I let the software track my ITM%, ROI, etc, but i keep an excel spreadsheet that i track all deposits, withdrawals, and my overall +/-. so, at the end of the day, i put my final bankroll into my spreadsheet and it calculates my daily win/loss. i find my satisfaction knowing i was + for the day. it is not unusual for me to have 10-15 winning days in a row. rarely do i lose 2 and almost never 3 days in a row. My cut off for the day is when i am happy with my return. lets say i set the goal for 25 sngs for the day, but after your 5th set of 4, lets say you are up 4 buy ins...i would forego the final 5 and ensure myself a winning day. document it and crack myself a beer as a reward for another positive day.

sounds like we have similar hang ups in our thinking, and i may get flamed for being too results oriented, but you gotta do what works for you. coming from a similarly minded person, i make my cut off for the day a positive one! and, if it truly doesnt matter when you stop for the day (according to everyone on here) why not make yourself happy and cut yourself off when you are up? it doesnt matter in the long run if you play the final 5 of your goal today or tomorrow...as long as you play em.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is, in general, poor advice. Basing goals in terms of $ won on a day to day basis is just asking to go on tilt.

I like the advice of reviewing your hand histories after tough sessions; seeing spots where you made a +ev play but got sucked out, etc, can help to ease ones mind. and if you notice things you can do differently or focus on, that too is going to help your roi and help you regain confidence.

10-24-2005, 07:05 PM
i understand that slim...i do. and i understand why you say that...i really do...BUT...

There was a thread about one of the guys here that was workign on his game...a pro i guess. but, he was telling us what his daily routine was going to be and he said that depending on how he was running, that would determine if he would play more. why is that any more wrong than what i said? just because I am more of a new player and he is well respected. I understand that because advice is like A-holes...right? but, it is the exact same thing...yes, it is results oriented thinking, BUT, if it helps keep you in the right mental state to continue playing, then it isnt bad advice or a bad habit to get into...

zipppy
10-24-2005, 07:06 PM
[ QUOTE ]
This isnt poker playing advice, its just how to keep poker from affecting your mental game...


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but you're in turn allowing your results to affect your mental game. IF you run good, then sure...this will help. But then again, if you're running good, then you don't really need help with confidence.

your advice is like saying, "win at poker, then you'll be confident". the OP is having problems with days/sessions that he doesn't run good....

bigt439
10-24-2005, 07:07 PM
[ QUOTE ]
My Friday session (my last) was break even. This, somehow, constitutes a total disaster in my mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

You better learn how to deal with it. Consider it practice for your 25+ buy-in downswing. Seriously.

I know you think you understand variance, and you might in theory, but if this is how you feel, you really haven't fully grasped the concept.

Nick M
10-24-2005, 07:08 PM
I know exactly how you feel. One thing that i did that helped me out was this. I used to put my numbers in after every session. I kept perfect records and on any given day I knew what ROI was or ITM. But recently I have decided to not do numbers until the end of the money. I would play my game the best I know how. Review hand histories as much as i could. Then at the end of the month have Pokerstars send me a HTML excel type sheet of all my wins and losses for the month. It's really an incredible thing that have over there. All I then do is copy and paste. This helps me seperate daily wins and losses from month wins and losses.

other than that positive thinking and a sick DVD collection. I usually try and take a break and watch a movie to get my mind off a bad play, or bad runs.

10-24-2005, 07:08 PM
guys, i already said i would get flamed, please dont fixate on the first part of my response because it was just saying that i have a different approach than most of you, and these types of responses prove it...but you are fixating on the wrong part of the post...

I am trying to say what i do to keep my mental frame of mind fresh and not let the variance defeat my positive attitude...it has nothing to do with me focusing on ROI or $$/hr...it has to do with setting and hitting small goals on a daily basis...because the marathon is long and the goal is not defined, but you need something to keep yourself motivated...thats all i should have posted...

I set small goals and shoot to attain them on a daily basis...it keeps me positive and those goals, when achieved, keep me on pace for my long term goals...thats all.

10-24-2005, 07:12 PM
good point!

One thing that has helped me with that is looking over my past performance. because of the way i choose to set my goals, i can see my positive daily performance. i had lost 3 str8 about 2 weeks ago and it really hurt my confidence, but i kept reviewing hand histories and saw i was playing the same game i always have played, but i was getting sucked out on. lost AA 5 str8 times i had it, and mix in losing KK 3 str8 in there, i lost premium hands preflop 8 str8...hard to swallow, but nuttin u can do. I look at my daily performance and realize it will only take me 2 days to win it back...and, historically, this is a bad run for me, so things are bound to change...and i have since won 7 str8 session...a solid track record i guess is the best for keeping my mind str8...which doesnt help either LOL

Sorry guys, I am trying to help...not trying ot lead others astray /images/graemlins/cool.gif

10-24-2005, 07:13 PM
well, grasping a concept and controlling emotion are two different things...

sofere
10-24-2005, 07:14 PM
I think this is the best advice in the thread. If you have enough SNGs under your belt to have a strong idea of what you're ROI is at that level (which I'm sure you do), then every session you play is worth $X whether you happen to lose, breaking even or win in that session.

I think that thinking of a session in this way helps keep a detached emotional state about a single session, but may not work for an extended downswing.

Something that might be a little more +EV than taking a day off is to move down a level or two for that day and crush them.

zipppy
10-24-2005, 07:16 PM
I was not flaming you. I didn't berate you as a person or player; I'm simply trying to disagree with you and point out that it could be a dangerous way to think.

Please don't think that anyone who disagrees with you is just trying to be an [censored]. I'm sure that you have insightful things to share, I'm equally sure that you are off in some of your thinking. Everyone is.

Blarg
10-24-2005, 07:18 PM
I didn't think raptor's reply was bad. There's a difference between knowing something in a sort of off in the distance fashion and knowing it up close and personal in a way that it's really integrated into you and matters. Everyone knows that, but knowing isn't good enough. It suggests you don't really understand, in a way that counts, what you think you know if you can't behave accordingly. It's kind of like knowing it but not believing it, which is like not knowing it at all.

I'm hoping in another 10 or 20k games, I might know what I already know, too. But for real this time.

10-24-2005, 07:21 PM
I didnt think that nor did i mean to imply...sorry zip.

No, but what i was trying to say is i was giving advice how i overcome negative mindsets and thinking...and i just dont understand how it can be wrong because its what i do. maybe my logic is flawed, but whatever logic you need regardless of how flawed, if it works to keep your mind fresh and positive, thats all that matters. i would rather do what gets the results. if pushing 72o was making me money, id do that too! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I think we are all egomaniacs in here with an aggressive, ultra-competitive side...i say you gotta find a way to feed that side of yourself when your luck runs cold.

Slim Pickens
10-24-2005, 07:23 PM
There's also a huge difference between how a recreational player should approach the game and how a professional should approach the game. A rec player is motivated firstly by enjoyment. Most of that enjoyment comes from money, but some of it comes from the "gambler's high" one gets from winning. If you play for enjoyment and stopping with a winning day makes you enjoy your hobby more, then do that. I'm seriously demotivated to play now since my big MTT score, so I'm not going to play for a while. It's -$EV to do that, but I have a job and I don't need the money. If I wake up and don't feel like going hiking, I don't go hiking. No one should care if I do or don't because I do it for fun.

Bigwig is a pro and that's totally different. What he's saying is essentially "I'm calling in sick whenever the hell I feel like it and damn it if it affects my position there." This is a bad attitude for a working person to take toward his job.

There's also the difference between little downswings and big-time funks. If a professional hits 2% ROI over 2500 tournaments, it's likely his game has changed and is in major need of repair. He needs time off to do this. If a professional is at 2% ROI over 100 games, that's variance and it's unprofessional to let something integral to your job get you down. Of course, going on tilt and losing is worse than not playing, but that's like saying calling in sick for a week because you don't like your job is better than coming in and punching your boss in the face. Sure it is, but...

bigt439
10-24-2005, 07:23 PM
... go on...

I was responding to when he said he understood variance.

And to be more direct with the emotional competence issue, if you can't handle breaking even on a day, then consider not playing as much poker or lower stakes. I mean breaking even? It gets alot worse than that.

10-24-2005, 07:23 PM
I dont think Raptor or your response is bad, but i think we are forgetting human nature. We all know murder is wrong, but why are there so many people in prison for it...we can understand things, but when it comes to controlling emotion and ego, that comes with experience. and you cant talk someone into being more experienced...sometimes you just gotta ride the wave to understand it.

10-24-2005, 07:25 PM
AGREED!

FieryJustice
10-24-2005, 07:28 PM
I am usually pretty pissed unless I am up 1k or more every day. If I breakeven, I am really pissed. Losing simply isnt an option. Dont be like me.

10-24-2005, 07:30 PM
[ QUOTE ]

I know you think you understand variance, and you might in theory, but if this is how you feel, you really haven't fully grasped the concept.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, first off, i agree that if you cant handle breaking even, then you're in big trouble /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I made a post that i think sums it up..

we can understand things, but when it comes to controlling emotion and ego, that comes with experience. and you cant talk someone into being more experienced...sometimes you just gotta ride the wave to understand it.

The theory and concepts can only be truly internalized once you have felt the emotions that go along with it, but it takes time and experience to do this...not reading this forum. this helps, but you still have to feel the pain /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Nick M
10-24-2005, 07:31 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Of course, going on tilt and losing is worse than not playing, but that's like saying calling in sick for a week because you don't like your job is better than coming in and punching your boss in the face. Sure it is, but...


[/ QUOTE ]

nice play... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

bigt439
10-24-2005, 07:36 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I know you think you understand variance, and you might in theory, but if this is how you feel, you really haven't fully grasped the concept.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, first off, i agree that if you cant handle breaking even, then you're in big trouble /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I made a post that i think sums it up..

we can understand things, but when it comes to controlling emotion and ego, that comes with experience. and you cant talk someone into being more experienced...sometimes you just gotta ride the wave to understand it.

The theory and concepts can only be truly internalized once you have felt the emotions that go along with it, but it takes time and experience to do this...not reading this forum. this helps, but you still have to feel the pain /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post.

sofere
10-24-2005, 07:39 PM
You should change your SN to Raptor518

10-25-2005, 12:25 AM
[ QUOTE ]
...cockeyed optimists...

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like somebody's read one too many Billy Mumphrey stories.

AA suited
10-25-2005, 01:49 AM
you cant handle a break even streak?! wait... a 1 day breakeven streak?!

do people call the suicide hotline if you are actually down a buy-in or 2??

seriously though, i think your expectations are out of touch with reality.

i had a 60 buyin downswing at 30+3, but i didnt care much since i had a full time job back then. dont get me wrong. $1800 isnt chump change to me. but poker at that time was just additional income, and not the source of rent/food $.

now when i'm in a downswing, i goto a lower buy in (like 20+2) where $ doesnt matter as much. if i lose, it feels the same as when i lost at 30+3 and had a regular job.

and when i started winning and got my confidence back, i went back to my regular buy-in.

rinse, repeat...

raptor517
10-25-2005, 04:23 AM
[ QUOTE ]
now when i'm in a downswing, i goto a lower buy in (like 20+2) where $ doesnt matter as much. if i lose, it feels the same as when i lost at 30+3 and had a regular job.

and when i started winning and got my confidence back, i went back to my regular buy-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate dropping in limits. then i cant get it all back as fast. screw waiting 3-4 days to swing back up. i want it NOW DAMNIT!@#!$!@%. holla

FieryJustice
10-25-2005, 04:48 AM
i agree. Screw playing lower buyins just to win back 1/4 of what you lost.

tigerite
10-25-2005, 04:57 AM
60 buyins, ouch.. and I thought the one I had was bad (it was somewhere between 30 and 40, I don't like to be reminded of it so I don't look back too much!)

raptor517
10-25-2005, 04:59 AM
[ QUOTE ]
60 buyins, ouch.. and I thought the one I had was bad (it was somewhere between 30 and 40, I don't like to be reminded of it so I don't look back too much!)

[/ QUOTE ]

i have had probably 5 swings between 30-40 if that makes you feel better, and 2 over 50. holla

tigerite
10-25-2005, 05:00 AM
Yeah but you 2932839273827392-table..

I've only just moved up to 8-tabling from 6.. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

raptor517
10-25-2005, 05:07 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah but you 2932839273827392-table..

I've only just moved up to 8-tabling from 6.. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

haha lately ive only been 8 tabling. lots less stressful. holla

10-25-2005, 08:45 AM
Sounds to me like you're letting your emotions get to you, I'm the same way so I know how you feel. Your head knows everything's fine but your stomach is turning.

This gets better with time at least it has for me. You will be better off if you can play through the downswings, your bankroll will thank you. If running bad affects your play though then a day off is better, only you can make that decision.

lacky
10-25-2005, 09:27 AM
my best advice is have a daily log type spreadsheet that keeps a running total of your $/hour earnings and your total earnings (I need this for taxes anyway). After a significant amount of time (mine has been going for 2 years) daily and weekly fluctuations don't make much difference. At this point I can win $20k in a mtt and it changes my $/hour by a couple bucks.

All I use for planing is that running $/hour figure. It doesnt really matter if I'm on fire or bleeding money, in the long run I know that figure is pretty close to reality.

Steve