Folding a set for the first time as preflopraiser.

[JMa]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB ($1513.50)
Hero ($1585.50)
MP ($1049)
CO ($2068)
Button ($885)
SB ($1876.57)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $40</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $40, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) calls $35, BB calls $30.

Flop: ($160) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $100</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $400</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO moves in for $2028</font>, SB folds, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $2685

CO doubled up w/ a fastplayed set earlier. When I raised UTG w/ 33 I realized that flopping a set here may cause trouble. With those deepish (using online standards) stacks its gonna be hard to stack someone holding a high pair here. I think I will get stacked a lot here against a higher set.

Anybody fold preflop / just call the flop in order to keep the pot small?

[psuasskicker]

Any chance he's pushing with an overpair? I'm not overly wild about your fold. You're representing an overpair there. Maybe he beats it, but he sure might be trying to bluff you off a hand with the depth of his stack.

This board is dry enough that you can smooth call that bet. Assuming CO then raises, I'd probably reraise right on the flop. Makes decisions easier.

- C -

[lapoker17]

Looks a lot more like an overpair than a set.

[JMa]

So If im representing an overpair here, what is CO pushing with? How would CO play here w/ a set? Just smooth call the flop?

[lapoker17]

He could certainly have a set, but if he's capable, I would guess that he flat called you w AA/KK - maybe even QQ enough of the time to make this call correct.

And to your question - yeah - I would imagine that 99 or 44 would more often make thier move on the turn.

Like I said, you may be behind here - and I can get away from sets - but I probably make this call.

Ive lost so much money by flopping a set and somebody else flopping a bigger set, not catching it on the turn or the river. Im actually negative with trips because of this. i cant believe my bad luck when flopping trips.

before all this happening with me id say bad lay down, but now id say great lay down

[durrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero ($1585.50)

[/ QUOTE ]

Call.

[mgsimpleton]

he smooth called you preflop with AA. now he has your JJ right where he wants it. call.

[9cao]

Here is some wacky analysis that could be way off.


Pot will be $3350 total, it is $1145 to call assuming SB gets out of the way (maybe a bad assumption).

I think AA, 99, and 44 account for almost his whole range here (I am going to assume he pops KK preflop, maybe a bad assumption). I think he would play 99, and 44 like that preflop 100% of the time, and AA a lot less than that. For arguments sake let's say 25% of the time he flat calls. He has 2 outs if he has AA.

Now on the flop, I think he plays AA like that 100% of the time since you are representing an overpair. For arguments sake let's say he fast plays his sets on this rather dry board something like 50% of the time. You have one out if he has 99/44.

There are 6 combos of AA, 3 of 99, and 3 of 44. But I guessed he does with AA only 25% of the time, and 99, 44 only 50% of the time. Therefore it is a .333/.666 split.

(1/3)*.90*$3350 + (2/3)*.03*$3350 = $1072

Since it is only $1145 to call I think this is entirely read based. If you think he always raises AA preflop or always fast-plays sets then it is an easy laydown. If your read is the opposite then easy call. I say nice hand.

[Jiminy]

He sees a bet and raise in front of him and realizes he needs to protect his aces. I think the odds of him playing a higher set like this are to slim to make a fold correct with your odds and expectation. call the all in.

Smooth calling BB's raise on this texture of a flop is not a bad play either.

Are you scared he has AA here?

[durrrr]

Your forgetting the idiot factor in your range. When its that close w/ a conservative hand range (-100$ EV) and a 3k pot, call because you could have misread villain and he could be a complete idiot/drunk etc. Most of the hand ranges we guess about should be phrased something along the lines of "against 95% of villains... i think theyr range is 5%; A 25%; X 50%; B etc." Well, you have a set, so against those 5% of drunk/lucky w/e retards you have them drawing slim/dead.

[mwalsh2020]

I agree with the others that have posted the likelihood of villian having an overpair, specifically AA. When I first read this hand, that was the first conclusion I came to. You represented an overpair by raising UTG and if that is indeed what you had, him putting in that huge raise on the flop with a set (after you've already rasied the initial flop bettor) just doesn't make any sense because he's allowing you to get away from a medium-strong PP (TT-QQ). He likely holds AA or KK and feels that he has you "trapped." I applaud you for your ability to fold a very strong hand based on your read of his play, but I really think you have a call here.

[AEKDBet]

What was your image at the time. What was BB's image. Post the fast played set earlier.

BB leads with his 9x or whatever. You raise with your QQ, CO pushes with AA. This makes sense from CO's POV.

Pushing in this spot with 99 no makey sense with BB behind. 44 maybe. maaaaaaybe....

Helluva lay down.

[JMa]

My image would be LAG, atleast thats what I think of myself. BB is a regular fish, his bet probably was something like T9 o or so. I dont have the HH from the fast played set earlier.

Anyway he shows 444 and Im a very happy man.

[mgsimpleton]

cool. you're awesome.

you still should have called.

[JMa]

[ QUOTE ]
cool. you're awesome.

you still should have called.

[/ QUOTE ]

awesome post. youre the best.

[ObnxNole]

[ QUOTE ]
He could certainly have a set, but if he's capable, I would guess that he flat called you w AA/KK - maybe even QQ enough of the time to make this call correct.

And to your question - yeah - I would imagine that 99 or 44 would more often make thier move on the turn.

Like I said, you may be behind here - and I can get away from sets - but I probably make this call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lapoker hit it right on the head. No way he pushes here with top set on the flop.. I'd wait till the turn to pump it up... I think you are looking at slowplayed AA..I call.