Spewing with aces - when should i lay it down? [Archive]

vhuntd

10-24-2005, 03:49 PM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (15.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (15.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, Button raises, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (23.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, Button bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 27.25 BB

MrWookie47

10-24-2005, 03:57 PM

Don't post results. This includes making a title indicating you lost. This hand is alright. I'd consider raising the turn.

deception5

10-24-2005, 03:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Don't post results. This includes making a title indicating you lost. This hand is alright. I'd consider raising the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto.

10-24-2005, 04:02 PM

I like the way you played it; I wouldn't be laying down in this hand either. I'm not going to be surprised to see a set or two pair, but that's a 15 BB pot by the turn, 16 BB to you, and you wouldn't normally expect that raise from the button. Folding on the river can not be right given that you're closing the action in a 27 BB pot.

@bsolute_luck

10-24-2005, 04:11 PM

really? you guys think this is fine? i'm not raising that turn but i'll call to hope to improve on the river to a better 2 pair or trips unless you guys really think UTG is donking with a lone K, and i think i can fold to the turn raise. that raise has trips or a straight written all over it.

MrWookie47

10-24-2005, 04:27 PM

I didn't say the turn was an auto raise. I said consider it. OP supplied no reads. I think we can call the raise and hope to suck out on two pair because of how huge the pot is. Upon further review, I think we can fold the river rather than being the thrid overcaller.

deception5

10-24-2005, 04:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
really? you guys think this is fine? i'm not raising that turn but i'll call to hope to improve on the river to a better 2 pair or trips unless you guys really think UTG is donking with a lone K, and i think i can fold to the turn raise. that raise has trips or a straight written all over it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot is too big not to try to protect the turn in my opinion. If button 3-bets then I will call and try to hit an A/9/8. If I miss I'll check/fold the river.

10-24-2005, 04:35 PM

At the river: are we 97% sure we're beaten? It's gotta be close, but I still can't fold, especially closing. Is this not one of those situations in which calling could at worst be a small error and folding at worst a major error?

10-24-2005, 04:36 PM

SSHE - Winning a big pot. SSHE has a great section on how to play large pots. Calling is bad unless you have some significant reads you didn't mention.

I raise the turn here. You have an overpair with a possibility of spiking an Ace, with a rainbow board and a solid straight draw out there. I don't believe a JT would play for three bets preflop, and if he did, power to him.

Calling the turn is weak, I think a raise is correct since you've been leading with the raising the whole way. Possibly a raise behind you could get a hand to fold.

Hindsight is to call down with the Aces if the Button reraised your raise on the turn.

MrWookie47

10-24-2005, 04:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
At the river: are we 97% sure we're beaten? It's gotta be close, but I still can't fold, especially closing. Is this not one of those situations in which calling could at worst be a small error and folding at worst a major error?

[/ QUOTE ]

Taken in a vacuum, sure, you can look at it this way. In the big picture, however, it's all EV. How often do you really think that one pair is good here? It's pretty darn small. There are also TWO other people who think they have a shot against someone who's shown a lot of strength on that turn. Granted, they are probably idiots, and, granted, you are closing the action, but our chances are still dubious. How dubious? Well,

If we win one time in 26.25, we break even.

If we win one time in 30 and call, our EV is about -0.1 BB.

If we win one time in 20 and call, our EV is about +0.3 BB.

Folding cannot be a big mistake for any reasonable probability we assign to our chances of winning.

Shillx

10-24-2005, 04:54 PM

You can say goodnight when the button pulls off that ish. Calling on the end is just a donation dude.

10-24-2005, 04:59 PM

Fair enough. I am indeed charitable.

Bats

10-24-2005, 05:17 PM

OK, I'm a novice and I've been losing my shirt by hanging on to AA, AK etc. to the bitter end, but I'm trying to learn to let go. I haven't read the other posts yet, but clearly the problem is what the heck does the button have that he liked enough to call all those raises pre-flop and on the flop. I've played enough .5/1 on Party to know some people will stay with damn near anything. The coordinated board is not good for us, but no one capped either, so I'd figure no one has a set, but two pair is likely and a straight draw very likely. Button's raise when the Queen comes screams JT and I get out. He probably has JTsuited to justify his calling all the preflop raises.

deception5

10-24-2005, 05:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OK, I'm a novice and I've been losing my shirt by hanging on to AA, AK etc. to the bitter end, but I'm trying to learn to let go. I haven't read the other posts yet, but clearly the problem is what the heck does the button have that he liked enough to call all those raises pre-flop and on the flop. I've played enough .5/1 on Party to know some people will stay with damn near anything. The coordinated board is not good for us, but no one capped either, so I'd figure no one has a set, but two pair is likely and a straight draw very likely. Button's raise when the Queen comes screams JT and I get out. He probably has JTsuited to justify his calling all the preflop raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

Other possibilities are KQ/99/88 or maybe even KK.

10-24-2005, 05:36 PM

I like how you played here. You have odds to improve after the turn. Hopefully, you are not behind a set. ...And the pot is big to fold on the river.

Augster

10-24-2005, 08:57 PM

I think on the river you could lay it down, big pot and all.

Preflop button calls 3 cold. What could he have? I don't even put donks on calling 3 cold with anything.

On the flop, button calls 3 cold AGAIN.

On the turn I raise.

When button wakes up with the Q hitting, I think I know I'm in trouble. If he had JT, calling 3 cold preflop is a little loose. I could see him calling the flop with an OESD with JT. I could also put him on QQ, and made his set when he wakes up.

I don't think a single pair is going to win this hand, given the action, ever. So being the 3rd overcaller on the river is the only real spew I see.

If you had raised the Turn, and Button 3-bets, you'd KNOW you were beat unless you improved on the river.

Tough luck. Not much else you could do really.

10-24-2005, 10:48 PM

*grunch*
I raise the turn. Your in perfect position and the pot is gigantinormous.

Hand plays differently after that. How you played it - I'm calling with tears streaming down my face.

I expect Button to turn over JT 7\10 times.

@bsolute_luck

10-24-2005, 11:08 PM

i need a question answered from those raising this turn:

let's just assume everyone folds after you raise and UTG+1 who raised preflop, raised the flop, and is donking the turn, simply calls our raise and checks to us on the river which is a non-9/8, what is the plan? and also consider the possibility if we're check/raised. just curious.

sure the pot is huge, but i wonder what we're protecting ourselves from exactly because a gutshot is still getting fine odds to call here and we risk being 3-bet by UTG+1. could someone help me understand please /images/graemlins/confused.gif

milesdyson

10-24-2005, 11:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At the river: are we 97% sure we're beaten? It's gotta be close, but I still can't fold, especially closing. Is this not one of those situations in which calling could at worst be a small error and folding at worst a major error?

[/ QUOTE ]

Taken in a vacuum, sure, you can look at it this way. In the big picture, however, it's all EV. How often do you really think that one pair is good here? It's pretty darn small. There are also TWO other people who think they have a shot against someone who's shown a lot of strength on that turn. Granted, they are probably idiots, and, granted, you are closing the action, but our chances are still dubious. How dubious? Well,

If we win one time in 26.25, we break even.

If we win one time in 30 and call, our EV is about -0.1 BB.

If we win one time in 20 and call, our EV is about +0.3 BB.

Folding cannot be a big mistake for any reasonable probability we assign to our chances of winning.

[/ QUOTE ]
this is something a lot of people still don't understand

10-24-2005, 11:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i need a question answered from those raising this turn:

let's just assume everyone folds after you raise and UTG+1 who raised preflop, raised the flop, and is donking the turn, simply calls our raise and checks to us on the river which is a non-9/8, what is the plan? and also consider the possibility if we're check/raised. just curious.

sure the pot is huge, but i wonder what we're protecting ourselves from exactly because a gutshot is still getting fine odds to call here and we risk being 3-bet by UTG+1. could someone help me understand please /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

IMHO.
The only thing to consider is the limit at which this is being played. At any higher limit and I would totally agree with you.
Players 1\2+ are used to aggression, they see it all the time, especially in a pot this big.
Even in .5\1, aggression on the flop, is expected to a certain degree. But once you get to the BB streets, raises like this blow many opponents of playable hands. You're also assuming that any GS draw knows that he has correct odds to call. Many times I've seen muppets blown off massive pots with just such a raise.
That being said, if you get 3 bet /images/graemlins/frown.gif

TomBrooks

10-25-2005, 12:34 AM

Lay it down on the flop. Laying it down preflop would look ridiculous.

10-25-2005, 12:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Lay it down on the flop. Laying it down preflop would look ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding this flop is really really bad IMO

TomBrooks

10-25-2005, 12:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lay it down on the flop. Laying it down preflop would look ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]Folding this flop is really really bad IMO

[/ QUOTE ] Would have saved the OP 4 1/2 BB. Whats so bad?

milesdyson

10-25-2005, 12:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lay it down on the flop. Laying it down preflop would look ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]Folding this flop is really really bad IMO

[/ QUOTE ] Would have saved the OP 4 1/2 BB. Whats so bad?

[/ QUOTE ]
rawfullmayo, lull, lullerskaiytes

Redd

10-25-2005, 01:27 AM

Folding our overpair on this 18SB flop would be quite bad.

[ QUOTE ]
Would have saved the OP 4 1/2 BB. Whats so bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome, I get to use this picture twice in one night. See asterisk.

http://www.jennycraig.com/img/layout/success_photo.jpg

10-25-2005, 01:30 AM

TomBrooks

10-25-2005, 02:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lay it down on the flop. Laying it down preflop would look ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]Folding this flop is really really bad IMO

[/ QUOTE ] Would have saved the OP 4 1/2 BB. Whats so bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have 2757 posts. I am going to assume that you are joking.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you assume that everyone with thousands of posts is joking?

10-25-2005, 02:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lay it down on the flop. Laying it down preflop would look ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]Folding this flop is really really bad IMO

[/ QUOTE ] Would have saved the OP 4 1/2 BB. Whats so bad?

[/ QUOTE ]
You have 2757 posts. I am going to assume that you are joking.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you assume that everyone with thousands of posts is joking?

[/ QUOTE ]

No I assumed that anyone with thousands of posts would not seriously give the response that you did.

TomBrooks

10-25-2005, 03:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lay it down on the flop. Laying it down preflop would look ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]Folding this flop is really really bad IMO

[/ QUOTE ] Would have saved the OP 4 1/2 BB. Whats so bad?

[/ QUOTE ]
You have 2757 posts. I am going to assume that you are joking.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you assume that everyone with thousands of posts is joking?

[/ QUOTE ]
No I assumed...

[/ QUOTE ]Well, you know what they say about assumptions. Anyway, where is your avatar and location descriptor?

10-25-2005, 03:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lay it down on the flop. Laying it down preflop would look ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]Folding this flop is really really bad IMO

[/ QUOTE ] Would have saved the OP 4 1/2 BB. Whats so bad?

[/ QUOTE ]
You have 2757 posts. I am going to assume that you are joking.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you assume that everyone with thousands of posts is joking?

[/ QUOTE ]
No I assumed...

[/ QUOTE ]Well, you know what they say about assumptions. Anyway, where is your avatar and location descriptor?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry man my posts were very dickish, but seriously you basically can't make many mistakes bigger than folding this flop IMO. More importantly if you're going to give a reason for doing something on a hand it shouldn't relate to the results of that specific hand, but should relate to what is the optimal play for the hand given the information that you have (which doesn't include the results). So I'm kind of drunk, sorry if I offended you.

bottomset

10-25-2005, 04:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
And the pot is big to fold on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you win this pot well less than 1/100, river is an easy fold

turn is closer, BTN has a monster, JT you are dead to, a set you are live, and the A can't give someone a better hand, since no FD, and no other straight draws, getting 22/1 its still moderately close, since you really don't have much for implied odds here, but calling the river bet, is like shill said donating money

Shillx

10-25-2005, 04:07 AM

I think you win this pot well less than 1/100, river is an easy fold

This is what I was driving at when I posted. You are losing a full BB when you call the river. Okay maybe only .99 BB... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

10-25-2005, 04:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I think you win this pot well less than 1/100, river is an easy fold

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an easy fold.

If you can handle having to stab yourself in the eye with a fork when that 1\100 comes around. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

DavidC

10-25-2005, 04:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Don't post results. This includes making a title indicating you lost. This hand is alright. I'd consider raising the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you're facing someone who's really rockish, I'd agree that raising the turn seems to be the right play. The pot's getting massive, and this could prevent you from being drawn out.

--Dave.

DavidC

10-25-2005, 04:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At the river: are we 97% sure we're beaten? It's gotta be close, but I still can't fold, especially closing. Is this not one of those situations in which calling could at worst be a small error and folding at worst a major error?

[/ QUOTE ]

Taken in a vacuum, sure, you can look at it this way. In the big picture, however, it's all EV. How often do you really think that one pair is good here? It's pretty darn small. There are also TWO other people who think they have a shot against someone who's shown a lot of strength on that turn. Granted, they are probably idiots, and, granted, you are closing the action, but our chances are still dubious. How dubious? Well,

If we win one time in 26.25, we break even.

If we win one time in 30 and call, our EV is about -0.1 BB.

If we win one time in 20 and call, our EV is about +0.3 BB.

Folding cannot be a big mistake for any reasonable probability we assign to our chances of winning.

[/ QUOTE ]
this is something a lot of people still don't understand

[/ QUOTE ]

Edit: ... and it pisses me off.

imported_Reaction

10-25-2005, 11:04 AM

Would this be a spot to call on the flop?

TomBrooks

10-25-2005, 12:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lay it down on the flop. Laying it down preflop would look ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]Folding this flop is really really bad IMO

[/ QUOTE ] Would have saved the OP 4 1/2 BB. Whats so bad?

[/ QUOTE ]
You have 2757 posts. I am going to assume that you are joking.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you assume that everyone with thousands of posts is joking?

[/ QUOTE ]
No I assumed...

[/ QUOTE ]Well, you know what they say about assumptions. Anyway, where is your avatar and location descriptor?

[/ QUOTE ]a reason for doing something on a hand shouldn't relate to the results of that specific hand, but to the optimal play given the information that you have which doesn't include the results...sorry if I offended you.

[/ QUOTE ]Ohh, that's different. No offense taken. Salute and Cheers.

bottomset

10-25-2005, 12:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I think you win this pot well less than 1/100, river is an easy fold

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an easy fold.

If you can handle having to stab yourself in the eye with a fork when that 1\100 comes around. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

you know you need to win 4times that often for it to be breakeven, so you are losing money chasing that 1%, which is being generous