J6s versus SB

[DMBFan23]

what's up y'all. had this hand go down the other day and I think I misplayed it, so I wanted to see what y'all would have done

EDIT: Party 10/20, SB is TAG. I'm leaving soon cause my seat isn't very good.
SB open raises, I call in the BB with Jd6d

Flop is AcJs4d
he bets, I call, intending to call down and check the river if given the opportunity

Turn is 7d
he checks, I think about the free card but sack up and bet because I think I might have the best hand AND I have some outs for those times he does c/r.

then he cr's.

so, what's my plan here? I'm mostly curious about people's plans for various rivers as well, namely a 6 but a J as well. diamond is pretty easy raise/call I think.

holla

[Surfbullet]

hey DMBfan,

I initially thought the turn bet is good, but if you believe he will bluff at the river when you check through a not-insignificant amout of time (or try to c/r you with a worse hand) then check-call is better.

The pot is small enough that you make quite a bit off of bluffs, especially because the free card doesn't risk much b/c there are only 2 possible overs and you have a tremendous # of outs if behind. He's TAG, but I don't know if he'll bluff enough on the river to be profitable...it'd have to be upwards of 30% i'd say...but if you save yourself from folding the best hand or getting c/r'd and having to put more bets in I think it has much more appeal.

After that little thought i've decided i like checking through the turn and calling a river bet.

Anyway, in the moment i'd probably bet (because that's what I do) and get irked by his c/r. It's such an irrational way to play an ace or better that I think i'd call, and call a river bet - raising if I hit any of my outs. Intellectually I'd fold to a 3bet if I hit my J or 6, but cap a diamond. In the heat of battle i'd call because I don't yet have the discipline to stick to a plan.

Surf

[spydog]

This is usually a pretty strong line by villian. I'd say he's got a Set/AJ/AK 90% of the time

Therefore, I would just call a 6 or J on the river. I raise/call a diamond.

[krimson]

He's a TAG so I wouldn't expect him to get out of line on the river...

I'd raise any J or 6 and fold to a 3-bet, raise/cap any diamond not pairing the board and raise/call any diamond pairing the board.

If we miss I think we can just fold? Since we're leaving the table anyways I don't see much reason a meta-game call down.

[Spartan1983]

I raise with anything that helps my hand on the river. Having never played 10/20 not sure if I make a call if a blank falls on the river. At 3/6 and 5/10 I probably lay it down with a blank on the river. 2nd pair, weak kicker isn't my idea of a good showdown hand unless I'm sure he is blind stealing with anything and capable of pushing that steal to the limits.

[krimson]

[ QUOTE ]
This is usually a pretty strong line by villian. I'd say he's got a Set/AJ/AK 90% of the time

Therefore, I would just call a 6 or J on the river. I raise/call a diamond.

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Is it not possible for villian to be doing this with Ax, suspecting that we suspect he is on a pure steal? Or applying pressure on an A high board with a PP suspecting we don't have an ace?

[DMBFan23]

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It's such an irrational way to play an ace or better

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I've been thinking about this a lot. are you saying it's probably ok to check behind any pair here?

either way we're looking at probably 6 outs at most unless he has two overcards and a flush draw, (in the event that we have a pair of 6s) but I think I should be betting these turns a decent amount to get value when I'm ahead and he's calling down with something like a PP. but then that opens up the c/r avenue for him. I suppose the board isn't that drawy, so I don't give him much by checking behind here (as opposed to a more drawy board, where he could earn some free cards OOP like this)

[DMBFan23]

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This is usually a pretty strong line by villian. I'd say he's got a Set/AJ/AK 90% of the time

Therefore, I would just call a 6 or J on the river. I raise/call a diamond.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it not possible for villian to be doing this with Ax, suspecting that we suspect he is on a pure steal? Or applying pressure on an A high board with a PP suspecting we don't have an ace?

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I think that could be part of it but when we weigh that too much IMO we play right into his hands, and he makes a lot of $ playing it straightforward...that's one thing I've noticed so far, is that everyone thinks everyone is FOS

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is usually a pretty strong line by villian. I'd say he's got a Set/AJ/AK 90% of the time

Therefore, I would just call a 6 or J on the river. I raise/call a diamond.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it not possible for villian to be doing this with Ax, suspecting that we suspect he is on a pure steal? Or applying pressure on an A high board with a PP suspecting we don't have an ace?

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Yes. Actually, my original estimate of 90% is too high. If his raise came from UTG/MP/CO then I think 90% is about right. In a HU blind steal situation I think his holdings are much more broad and it's more likely he's making some sort of play at the pot. It wouldn't surprise me if he's holding complete garbage. How's that for a 180?

[krimson]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes. Actually, my original estimate of 90% is too high. If his raise came from UTG/MP/CO then I think 90% is about right. In a HU blind steal situation I think his holdings are much more broad and it's more likely he's making some sort of play at the pot. It wouldn't surprise me if he's holding complete garbage. How's that for a 180?

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Your point is still pretty valid though. I think we could smooth call a 6, but I'd probably still raise a J, fearing a set or AJ in a HU/Steal situation seems a bit MUBS to me.

[Surfbullet]

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It's such an irrational way to play an ace or better

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I've been thinking about this a lot. are you saying it's probably ok to check behind any pair here?


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Yes, I think any pair would be best served by checking and calling a river bet. The biggest problem for us here is that his hand range is surprisingly wide. He raises pf, so we could say maybe any 2 cards 9 and up, any connectors, most suited 2gappers or better, any PP. When he bets the flop his hand range is almost identical - since he will continuation-bet this Ace-hi flop into a tag because his FE is so high.

When he checks the turn again he could be doing so with all sorts of garbage hands that are giving up, or with hands like JT that wan't to see a showdown but don't want to be raised, or the rare AK/set that is going for a c/r. Again, in his shoes when you bet the turn he knows you'll think he's given up, so the likelihood of his c/r being FOS goes up IMHO.

but, we want our hand to play well against his entire range. checking through the turn is best in these regards:

Vs an Ace or better: we get a cheap card when behind instead of paying 2bb as a dog on the turn, and only pay 1bb when we don't improve. when we do improve we stand to make 2BB.

Vs a J or other hand that is ahead but isn't going for a c/r: we save 65% of 1BB on the turn, and again will often get to raise the river when we improve, though we may not get paid off.

Vs KQ, the most dangerous unpaired hand: he has 4-5 pair outs and 3 straight outs. Giving a 7-8 outer a free card in a 3BB pot doesn't cost us much. If he knows what he's doing he's not going to bet KQ on the river, so we likely won't snap off a bluff. Sometimes we raise the river when he hits a pair that improves us and we get an extra bet that offsets it somewhat.

Vs any other unpaired hand: 3-4 pair outs and may have 3 straight outs. He is drawing nearly dead here so we give up very little equity letting him see a free card. These hands will often bluff the river, so we recoup most of what we give up in snapped off bluffs, if not more (assuming a bluff 35%+, which seems reasonable)

Additionally, once we check through the turn we will often make multiple bets on the river when we both improve, given that he'd expect us to bet a FD on the turn.

Whew, this ended up being long. Long story short: His better hands will punish us, while we do not benefit from folding out worse hands and will not often be paid off by worse hands. Checking encourages him to make the most mistakes, while saving bets when behind.

Surf

[DMBFan23]

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what a fantastic analysis.

I think one of the adjustments I'm going through in this game so far (< 4,000 hands logged) is when to get value with marginal hands and when to take free cards or simply call down.

[Megenoita]

I disagree with Surf that on the turn villain could have a wide range of junk hands that are giving up. A tag would bet the turn with junk most of the time knowing that hero probably peels a lot of flops when defending--it's correct to fire again in that situation. To me, that turn check is very scary (like what Spydog said) and I love to be able to check through and induce a river bluff if I can. What would be terrible is if he checks the turn, you bet, he perceives that as a bluff and c/r you, and you fold. Or, if you call down from that point and he has an ace. I just don't like the situation and our hand is already weak considering the ace and how high of a % villains play them.

[Surfbullet]

I agree with your assessment regarding the turn bet Megonita. I respectfully differ, though, in that I think villain should not be betting this turn with junk. an AJ4 rainbow board discourages peeling, especially from a TAG who is well versed in pot-odds and hand-ranges. Now make that board K75 twotone, and you've got an argument for it IMHO.

Surf

[Megenoita]

Are you saying that villain WONT be firing again on the turn, or that he theoretically (from correct playing's perspective) shouldn't?

You may be right, but I think villain (with junk) is trying to represent an ace, and he doesn't quit just because he is called on the flop. He could be thinking that hero is trying to see if he really "meant" the flop bet, or that hero peeled to try to hit a pair (many players do this on an ace high flop and villain may not distinguish this).

Of all the experience I've had with lags, they don't quit betting, like, ever, unless shown aggression back. Kind of like 2+2 players /images/graemlins/smile.gif. I can't imagine villain with trash checking the turn, just giving up, because hero...called. Do lags really do this?

[Surfbullet]

I'm saying that when villain checks the turn, his most likely holding is a weak hand that has given up because further betting is unprofitable. Villain is a TAG (2+2-esque usually springs to mind) not a LAG. If he's a LAG the check is suspicious. Also, if he's a TAG but a poor player(too blindly aggressive..then not a TAG anymore anyway) then it is also suspect.

Basically, if he's a thinking player he's giving up this turn (correctly) b/c DMBFan23 here won't peel this flop with Q8 like a 45/15 fish will.

You definitely have an argument in disagreeing with this point though, as there are "TAGs" around who would blindly continuation-bet this turn with junk. But he didn't bet, he checked, so we have to assess the hand range that bets the flop then checks the turn.

Surf

[Megenoita]

Oh, okay, this is the tag thread. I think that fact, that he's a tag, makes this decision to bet/fold the turn. Reason being that you are right, he will often wise up and give up, but if he raises, you're screwed because tags often auto-bet the turn as well.

[DMBFan23]

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Basically, if he's a thinking player he's giving up this turn (correctly) b/c spydog here won't peel this flop with Q8 like

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that's ok I think surf might have it confused too. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Megenoita]

haha, that makes me feel better /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[Surfbullet]

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haha, that makes me feel better /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

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Yeah, wow. We're totally having the same debate in 2 different hands.

We can't bet-fold the turn here...we've got 2nd pair and a flush draw.

Surf

[Megenoita]

You're right, didn't see FD. I'm going to STFU for now.

M