QQ on paired board [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

ReadyEddie

10-24-2005, 02:12 PM

UTG is 50/20 over 270 hands.
SB is unknown

good flop 3 bet?
and is the river a good spot for a value bet or a check?

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (7 handed) link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG raises, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, SB calls.

Flop: (10.00 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG folds, SB calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (10.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ?

10-24-2005, 02:22 PM

I bet/fold the river and expect to be called by AJ or 1010. If I can't find a fold to a river raise because the player is unknown, I check behind. I may have called the flop and tried to raise/fold the turn.

W. Deranged

10-24-2005, 02:28 PM

This river is very, very tough.

My problem is that that K hits a lot of hands which villain could have had that you beat going into the river (QT, KJ are the notable examples). We also still might be beat from before hand.

Let's consider the hands villain might play this way. Here's a representative range:

AJ (12)
KJ (9)
QJ (6)
JT (12)
QT (16... but this requires discounting based on the flop action since a check-raise with a draw would be a bit odd here... let's say this is 10 hands).
TT (6... but again, we need to discount... let's say 3).
Hands that contain a 9, notably A9-T9 (This is very hard to speculate about because the likelihood goes way down because you didn't get check-raised again on the turn... Let's say this represents like 15 hands).

There is then a sort of adjustment zone which contains a few random hands you beat (like 88 or something), and something's you don't (KQ). We'll say these are roughly the same, with a slight, tie-breaker edge to the hands you beat.

I get about 33 hands you beat vs. like 34 hands that are beating you, which adjusts to about exactly even when we factor in the random hands mentioned at the end. If you are confident that villain almost never has a 9 here because he would have shown agression earlier, that 34 number goes way down to a region that you can safely value bet, but if villain is fairly unknown or known to be pretty passive or tricky, I think it's very even.

So, flip a coin or something. If you think there's any chance you'll get raised off the best hand, don't bet here. You need to be folding to a raise, and the psychic cost of possibly not seeing a showdown here might be enough to discourage me from betting.

flair1239

10-24-2005, 02:42 PM

I don't know. That would be a pretty tough checkraise for the SB to make, without a hand better than yours.

I also have trouble seeing a nine here, because he let you off pretty easy on the turn, if that is what he had. Check raising the flop with an OESD, would have been a pretty slick move on his part.... but that is kind of something I have to see (If I took notes I would note it) before I give him credit for it.

Another thing about him making the straight, is I think he might be more likely to bet it for fear of you checking behind.

My problem with a value-bet here, is that there is a pretty thin range of hands that he is calling with after the king hits.

Depending what he thinks you have, it is likely the King is seen as a scare card for him.

So my thing is, I don't know that we are getting a lot of calls from an unknown on this river.

On the other hand the pot is pretty big and it could be big enough where a J might call "because he only has to be right 8% of the time" or something like that.

So the pot size seems to be the kicker for me. I think that alone might drive him to make a crying call, just often enough to make it worthwhile.