Raise KQ pf then fold to a 3-bet? Examples and discussion wanted

[droolie]

I like raising a wide range of hands pf and often have the uncomfortable experience of getting my hand caught in the cookie jar when I do this with the lower range of my holdings. I usually meekly call and hope to get lucky on the flop. This seems like a losing proposition. I usually fold the flop and gain nothing in metagaming aspects. Even when I hit the flop I usually wind up in a no win situation. Ie. with KQo on a K high flop I lose to AK, KK or AA. Or KQ on a Q high flop I lose to AA, KK, QQ, AQ. In other words I need for the reraiser to be holding JJ or below or AK or AQ and be able to move him off a better hand or a miracle str8ish flop in most cases for this call to be worthwhile.

Lately I've been considering folding some of these pf when reraised and OOP. (This is for games that are tight and aggressive pf like the ones sported at the skins lately.)

Is this ever correct? Is this fold standard and I've been spewing forever? How often in your experience are these 3-bets isolation 3-bets with lower pocket pairs? Is it all just read depedent? What say you?

Example 1: I raise UTG with KQo, MP (5%pfr) re-raises, folded to me?....

Example 2: I raise from MP+3 with ATo, Button (10%pfr) 3-bets, folded to me?....

Example 3: I raise from CO with QJo, Button (15%pfr) 3-bets, folded to me???....

Example 4: I raise KQo UTG, MP (12%pfr) rerasies from the CO, folded to me.

In any of these examples how much do the blinds coming along sway your decision one way or another? Do you care how tight they are? What odds do you need to chase a miracle flop?

[lautzutao]

I think in all honesty you're behind HU in every one of these situations. I'd need someone to come along, or have position. Since you have neither I don't see folding as a problem.

EDIT: actually I might call with example 3. QJo is a lot less likely to be dominated IMO.

[deception5]

I don't think it's every correct to fold for 1 more bet preflop after you raised.

1.) You're getting an immediate 5:1 or better (up to 6.5:1 if neither of you is a blind).
2.) You send a message to the table that you are raising with junk.
3.) You send a message to the table that you can be pushed off of your hands preflop. If you did this and I was on your left you could expect to get 3-bet very often.
4.) The implied odds when you hit a KQ flop are huge. JT flops are also nice.

You'll also have the best hand reasonably often on a Kxx or Qxx flop. You may even be the dominator when someone thinks you are stealing and they 3-bet you in late position.

Also the more tight/aggressive the game the more likely these are to be isolation bets. Especially if you've been raise/folding preflop.

[droolie]

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I don't think it's every correct to fold for 1 more bet preflop after you raised.

1.) You're getting an immediate 5:1 or better (up to 6.5:1 if neither of you is a blind).
2.) You send a message to the table that you are raising with junk.
3.) You send a message to the table that you can be pushed off of your hands preflop. If you did this and I was on your left you could expect to get 3-bet very often.
4.) The implied odds when you hit a KQ flop are huge. JT flops are also nice.

You'll also have the best hand reasonably often on a Kxx or Qxx flop. You may even be the dominator when someone thinks you are stealing and they 3-bet you in late position.

Also the more tight/aggressive the game the more likely these are to be isolation bets. Especially if you've been raise/folding preflop.

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So never fold pf fpr one bet? Hmm? I never do but lately I'm thinking this is moranic.

I see your point about metagaming butI'd only be doing it once in a while and cap quite often with my premium holdings against suspected isolators. I will always call if my hand has an A in it. I also think the 3-bettors pfr% has to be factored in. I would not expect a pfr%<7 to be doing much isolation. I isolate quite liberally against players with large pfr% with small pocket pairs and hate it when they cap.

[numeri]

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I also think the 3-bettors pfr% has to be factored in. I would not expect a pfr%<7 to be doing much isolation. I isolate quite liberally against players with large pfr% with small pocket pairs and hate it when they cap.

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Absolutely - the only one I even consider folding is #1. We have good enough immediate odds on all the rest to call and see a flop.

[lautzutao]

The question is how much money is being spent protecting our image in these particular instances?

[deception5]

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The question is how much money is being spent protecting our image in these particular instances?

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It's not just a matter of protecting our image, we have a realistic chance of improving to the best hand and we're getting a large overlay to boot (especially if the blinds call).

As far as image goes, sure many opponents are unobservant, but even bad opponents will notice a play like this.

[lautzutao]

but realisically, getting 5.5:1 and considering the rake, is this such a good call against players with these kinds of PFR stats?

We probably do have the odds to call I guess, but in a lot of instances we're dominated with these hands. We aren't going to win much if we're ahead but we're gonna get killed if we're behind no?

[RatFink]

I think this is part of the territory. If you are raising KQo UTG then you gotta deal with the fact that you're gonna get 3-bet now and again. I don't see any merit in folding PF unless I want to be 3-bet mercilessly by everyone.

If this situation is happening a LOT at a table, then you might want to reconsider your early position opening standards for that session until you locate a new table to play at.

But in general the frequency in which this is occuring should be pretty minimal and calling the PF 3-bet and evaluating the flop isn't going to constitute a major leak to have an effect that would diminish the value you are getting out of raising these types of hands.

On #3 when you raise from the CO, you should expect a good button to be 3-betting you lighter than you might expect. wow horrible sentence structure. i hope you get my gist

[lautzutao]

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If this situation is happening a LOT at a table, then you might want to reconsider your early position opening standards...

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NH

[droolie]

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1.) You're getting an immediate 5:1 or better (up to 6.5:1 if neither of you is a blind).

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This is true but this is pf action. If we decide to call down we will have to put in another 5SB's if villian bets the entire way. If we have a favorable board and get frisky on the flop or turn we might be forced to fold a better hand or pay off more with a weaker hand. The reverse implied odds are daunting to say the least as we can never push or hands hard and get paid unless we flop a str8 and villian has a set or overpair.

I think the best play is to take into consideration the aggression of the 3-bettor and our relative positions and make decision based on the likelihood of that player raising with a smaller pocket pair. It's also important to cap against probably isolators liberally.
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If this situation is happening a LOT at a table, then you might want to reconsider your early position opening standards...

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NH

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The day I start mucking KQo 1st in will be the day online poker can officially be declared DOA. Seriously do any of you play at tables where you're mucking this 1st in?

That being said I must state that I've been very impressed with the level of competition at the skins lately. I've seen entire tables with players in 17-22/8-15/2-5 range with average pots of 4BB's to 6BB's. Table selection has been nil at full-ring and questionable at 6-max. I've been palying sessions at some higher limits than I usually play just to get away from the 4-6BB tables.

I would never fold. In example four I think there is merit to a cap. Im uncertain about raising A10 preflop though.

Grunch...

never raise then fold to a 3bet preflop in limit under any circumstances.

"I usually fold the flop and gain nothing in metagaming aspects."

this isnt good either i dont think.
sounds like your just looking to fold the flop cause you see yourself guaranteed as being so far behind because you were 3bet. and i think you get more in metagame than you think, if i see someone folding after a raise in a limit game suddenly any PP or AJ+ has 3bet value with fold equity.

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I would never fold. In example four I think there is merit to a cap. Im uncertain about raising A10 preflop though.

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just curious, why are you capping 4? is that a value raise?

[istewart]

I would never fold in any of these scenarios if I'm reading you correctly. If it's a really tight reraiser (and against even an incredibly small range such as JJ+ or AK you have 25% equity with KQo), you should be able to not leak tons of money with a marginal top pair hand and make it profitable (or at least breakeven).

Either way, if a smart player sees you limp and fold to a raise or raise and fold to a 3-bet your life will be hell at that table.

[deception5]

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In example four I think there is merit to a cap.

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I don't think I'd cap oop, I'd rather call and check/raise a favorable flop (any reasonable draw, any pair).

[@bsolute_luck]

you know how many times i've 3-bet and even capped with AA only to have some schmuck cold call and flop 2 pair or trip tens with AT against my AK or some other nonsense? or get an OESD?

easy call. see the flop. play poker: make 'em pay a lot when you hit & get out quick when you don't. my postflop plays change with these guys. i don't pay off raises because they're not reraising with a worse hand or c/r unless i hit big because i'm not "pulling any moves" against these preflop types.

yes preflop changes: i'm raising a lot more hands seeing as they're so tight, but postflop also changes a lot too.

I dont know, just threw it in there. If he is a thinking opponent he will put you on JJ+ and AK so if an ace or two face cards come we might take the pot uncontested vs his medium pp. But its probably spewing.

Never fold though.

[milesdyson]

yup.

top pair, bet/raise crap will get you killed in these situations. but you should be able to play well enough that folding is the wrong choice. the only way i think folding could be correct is if you're just flat out bad postflop, in which case you have larger worries than what you should do when a TAG 3-bets you.

We'll be getting between 5.5 and 6.5:1, even without the blinds coming along. With KQo, we have about a 33% chance of hitting at least a pair on the flop. Even if you discount that 33% - say, cut it in half to 17% - that's still about 5-1. If I miss, I have no problem folding, and if I hit, I find a C/R a pretty reliable way of getting value in while also finding out if we're in too serious trouble. So I think the implied odds are there.

Toss in the value of not looking too weak, as others have suggested, and you have a call in most situations.

[W. Deranged]

I don't think you're bottom line would suffer significantly if you never folded preflop to one more bet, except out of the blinds.

[Shillx]

/images/graemlins/frown.gif

Your equity against AA-JJ/AK when you flop a queen is 56.25%. Your equity against the same hands when you flop a king is 46.80%. You will flop at least a pair about 29.6% of the time against this range. You have more then enough to call another bet preflop. The key is keeping it to one bet per street with just one pair.

Brad

[DavidC]

I think the correct anti-cookie-jar strategy is to lower your pfr to some number less than 30. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

On second thought, what-shill-said. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

What I'm curious about is whether or not you should be folding AQ and KQ if it comes back two bets to you after you raise. I think this is an easy fold, depending on who does it.

--Dave.

[deception5]

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What I'm curious about is whether or not you should be folding AQ and KQ if it comes back two bets to you after you raise. I think this is an easy fold, depending on who does it.

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KQ I'll usually fold for 2 more bets unless it's 4-handed or they are overaggressive.

AQ I need a solid read, preferably 2.

[Shillx]

What I'm curious about is whether or not you should be folding AQ and KQ if it comes back two bets to you after you raise.

Yeah KQ is a no brainer fold and AQ is a fold against reasonable players. The problem with calling two more aside from the fact that you are up against better hands is that you can't control the pot size like you can HU. So if you flop something, you will usually have to pay multiple bets to see the next card. You just can't afford to play a big pot with 2 better hands (on average) when you will often times make a "payoff" hand. I hate that term, but it does apply well here.

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What I'm curious about is whether or not you should be folding AQ and KQ if it comes back two bets to you after you raise.

Yeah KQ is a no brainer fold and AQ is a fold against reasonable players. The problem with calling two more aside from the fact that you are up against better hands is that you can't control the pot size like you can HU. So if you flop something, you will usually have to pay multiple bets to see the next card. You just can't afford to play a big pot with 2 better hands (on average) when you will often times make a "payoff" hand. I hate that term, but it does apply well here.

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Call any preflop action back to you for one bet.

When it's 2+ bets backatcha, you need to let AQ/KQ go to a solid player. Suited AQ with a couple others involved could be a good call, play 'possum and hit'em hard if your flush draw is looking good. Be wary of any board pairing though.

[droolie]

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The key is keeping it to one bet per street with just one pair.


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How do you handle the river? Do you almost always check call? What circumstance would make you want to bet fold or bet call with just one pair?

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/images/graemlins/frown.gif

Your equity against AA-JJ/AK when you flop a queen is 56.25%. Your equity against the same hands when you flop a king is 46.80%. You will flop at least a pair about 29.6% of the time against this range. You have more then enough to call another bet preflop. The key is keeping it to one bet per street with just one pair.

Brad

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Very nice post Shillx. I think folding in any of the situations outlined in the OP is really really really bad. I would have to get 3 bet by somone with a 0%PFR over like 200 hands to even consider it.