Missing value bets?

[Billy LTL]

I've noticed a recent tendency of mine to check on the river with top pair, and even better.

A recent example: Six-handed, 15-30 online. Fairly tight, semi-aggressive game.

UTG limps, I raise with AcJd, button calls, sb reraises, utg folds, I call, button calls.

Flop is Jh5h3h. sb bets, I raise, button calls, sb reraises, I cap, button calls, sb calls.

Turn is 7c or something. sb bets, I raise, button hesitates then calls, sb calls.

River is Ad. sb checks, I CHECK, button checks and my two pair beats the sb's pocket KK.

I should've bet out on the river, right?

[Jimbo]

Either that or folded A/J off in EP in the first place! /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[glen]

It's six handed, so there is no EP, really. . .

[Billy LTL]

Either that or folded A/J off in EP in the first place!

Really Jimbo? You'd consider a preflop fold after utg limped in this shortish game?

Maybe I'm lacking poker skills on more streets than just the river.

Billy

[PokerBabe(aka)]

Hi Billy- My coach lists "not betting the river when leading" and "not betting the river when making your hand" as 2 of the 10 most common Hold'em errors. Despite his incessant nagging, I too sometimes miss a river bet. I find that I most often miss when I fear a check/raise from an opponent who has been showing strength throughout the hand. I do sooooo hate being check/raised on the river /forums/images/icons/mad.gif . For awhile, I was "overcompensating" by "almost always" betting the river and I found that to be problematic as well. /forums/images/icons/crazy.gif Now, I am betting the river with "optimal" frequency (well, almost). /forums/images/icons/grin.gif LGPG, Babe /forums/images/icons/heart.gif

[ChuckRazor]

I think this is a case where you missed a bet. I also think the "value bet" is the junk bond of the poker world. I really only use the value bet against very weak players. The ones that will "keep you honest" with second pair, no kicker. The value bet leads you down a lot of bad roads; Bluff street, Slowplay avenue and sometimes Calling Station lane. I check on the river a often with the best hand. I save a few bets. Why bet a hand that if you are called, you lose. Missing a bet on the river is only a major sin if your opponent would have folded a winning hand. My advice is to not fall in love with a phrase, play solid poker instead.

[Billy LTL]

Thanks Babe. Glad to know others here suffer from the dreaded RVbD "River Valuebet Doubt" syndrome. Your coach sounds like a wise man. What would either he or you have done with the hand I described above?

By the way, I wrote a poem about a recent purchase of mine.

-------------------------------------------------------------

I bought some new Italian shoes
I even wear them when online.

They make me look good, win or lose
And help me play good all the time.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Fabiano Ricci is the stone cold nuts.

Billy

[Billy LTL]

I think this is a case where you missed a bet.

Agreed.

I also think the "value bet" is the junk bond of the poker world

Nice turn of phrase and maybe we have a semantics problem here. I consider a value bet to be a bet which will show me a profit more often than not. Perhaps that definition doesn't meet the criteria of the dilemma I faced on this river, if not apologies.

I check on the river often with the best hand.

Of course there are many circumstances where it is correct to do so. I believe this wasn't one of them. What I'm really wondering was just how far off I was in this case.

I save a few bets. Why bet a hand that if you are called, you lose

I would have been called by at least one player, possibly two here. I would have called a checkraise if it had come to that. Without trying to be too results-orientated the potential extra bet(s) to be earned were significant. I've been missing far too many of them recently which hurts the bottom line.

Thanks for your input, Billy

[ChuckRazor]

My interpretation of the term "value bet" is betting by thinking you have a 50% or better chance of having the best hand. My experience leads me to believe you need more than 50/50 shot at being the best hand to lead at a pot(head up) on the river. Frankly, my opponents are just too good to use this play too often. Try something new...induce a bluff, whatever. Too much value betting is a LOSER against good opponents. That being said, spiking your ace on the river would cause me to lead at the pot. Unless Doc was my opponent, then I would fold twice.

[Vehn]

Frankly, my opponents are just too good to use this play too often.

and..you play at canterbury?

Last week a player limped in from MP, the SB called, and I checked in the big blind with Q9. Flop was J 9 x, I bet and the limper called. Turn was a blank, I bet and he called. The river was a blank, I bet, he called, and flashed T9o.

[Billy LTL]

Frankly, my opponents are just too good to use this play too often.

I believe many of us here at times face opponents who are not exactly easy.

Try something new...induce a bluff, whatever

Perhaps my check on the river could be considered as inducing a bluff, if it was intentional. But only a moron button would be induced in this case, so alas, it was not an inducement attempt.

The "try something new, induce a bluff" is a touch condescending, no?

[Jimbo]

Billy I suggested folding A/J off due to your game description as "Fairly tight, semi-aggressive game." I suppose I read too much into the game conditions, but you still missed a good value bet! /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[elysium]

hi billy
in this situation, checking it down is always correct. you're not leading even though it looks like it. this is why i don't like the flop cap.

in this situation, it's always better to call. youre getting more money into the pot, but is that what you want to do? i don't think so. your raise opens a can of worms the fish will go crazy for, and allows the SB to take control of the table. if he wants to see the river cheaply he simply reraises and checks the turn. now the button will not raise, and if he does youre beat and the SB folds unless he has the button beat, and reraises the button. but he doesn't do that.

instead he bets! now you know youre beat. the SB will call with his K hi flush, and the button can only hope the board pairs. you should fold on the turn. and that's why i don't like the flop cap, because of this here turn.

on the flop you have made a decision to see the river, and that's fine, but you must stick to the game plan. you must call therefore; or, on the flop you represent a powerhouse by putting in 3 extra bets. and that's fine also. but, when the SB says,"let's do it again! that was great!" by charging out of the turn gate like that, my friend, you can fold. this one is over. a call on the flop by you looks more dangerous than the fast action given this opponent. he wanted you to cap because he's looking for the A. when he bets out, he wants to know if you have it. your raise says your ATs beats his KQs. he is in disbelief. and that's a problem here too. he knows you have ATs, but there is just enough doubt to see the river, if not very reasonable doubt. button hesitates because he's trying to figure out if you have a bigger set and not the A hi flush.

this happened because you lost focus of the game plan. you capped the flop, great! but when the SB comes flying out, you must read that as the A hi or the more likely search for the A hi. the SB could also be searching the button for it too. two calls, and he would have fired again on the river. what did he have? KK? i didn't see that.

when youre beaten billy, and you know youre beaten, fold unless you have 5 outs and are getting correct odds. my read was a little off, he's searching for the A hi though. his read's a little off. and don't give me any of this 5 out bull. you played well on the flop, but you should fold on the turn every time billy. very wreckless here. and that button had your other A.; you have exactly 3 outs. the button had what, AQo. but to give you an idea, you have 3 outs at best with a 50/50 chance of drawing dead. that's like drawing to a single out.

[DiamondDave]

I need to make sure I'm not making them! /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

[bunky9590]

Precisely why I like mucking the AJo in EP/MP any way. Real bad shape against KK and AQo! I think a little aggressive with the flop play with the three heart flop. (just my opinion)

[Billy LTL]

I suppose I read too much into the game conditions

The game description was accurate, and I doubt you misread it. I think the choice of folding or raising was probably close. My initial plan, such as it was, was to get heads-up with utg limper.

[MD_]

A value bet is a bet which figures to be a favorite WHEN CALLED. I.e. You're betting because you anticipate the opponent calling with a worse hand and paying you off. Note that it's ok to lose this bet nearly half the time and still make a profit on the bet. Most players don't value bet enough on the end (I think you're one of them).

-MD

[Billy LTL]

this is why i don't like the flop cap

Elsium - I'm starting to hate the whole hand.

Here's my thinking. I flop top pair but there are three hearts on board. Yes, maybe I'm chasing a bigger pair and if so perhaps I should have folded. (Keep in mind though that the pot is a decent size already and there is a cold-caller involved). If I am to continue, hoping to hit one of my five outs it's imperative I at least try to force out the button who almost certainly is on a flush draw. The only way to do that is by raising. If he has a heart I've only got three outs so the choice on the flop and beyond, for me, is too either fold or raise.

Also, I wasn't certain the sb had me until he bet out on the turn. I think my raise was good there because 1) he cannot be certain I don't have a hand like AhKx, or even AhAx, unless he has it. His failure to reraise told me he didn't. 2) It's highly unlikely he'll bet into me on the river. 3)There's still a slight chance the button will fold.

the button had what, AQo

I suspect you're right but I think the A was a heart, which makes makes my failure to bet on the river even more of a tragedy. Thanks for your analysis.


Billy

[Billy LTL]

Precisely why I like mucking the AJo in EP/MP any way

Make no mistake. Against some utg limpers I would do just that. Against those who are very loose with their open-limps I raise.

I had no opinion of this particular utg. Flip a coin - heads I raise.

[PokerBabe(aka)]

Hi Dave. Since the list is not mine but my coaches, I would prefer not to list them here. I can tell you that this topic will be addressed at the WPPC (World Poker Player's conference) at the Orleans in Vegas on July 11th. Until that discussion is "public", I think it's best to keep mum. LGPG, Babe /forums/images/icons/heart.gif

[PokerBabe(aka)]

Billy- When the sb 3 bets btf and then does it again on the flop, I will often just shut down right there when I have only top pair, best kicker. Given that you may already be dead to a flush (or to the nut flush draw), I think I like your shoes alot more than your play of this hand. I would not have bet the river here (if I was still onboard at the end). LGPG and hope to meet you in '03. Babe /forums/images/icons/heart.gif

[Ed Miller]

But this was one ugly hand. You put in like umpteentrillion bets with a sweaty poodle and then couldn't find even one when you made your hand.

I swear... online players seem to just be maniacs... live players simply don't play this way, at least in my experience. The SB told you like 20 times that AJ was no good... it must be because the raise button is too close to the fold button...

[Billy LTL]

But this was one ugly hand. You put in like umpteentrillion bets with a sweaty poodle and then couldn't find even one when you made your hand.

There it is in a nutshell. Thanks to all. Billy