when does posting become a leak?

Looking back over the last 3 months, I have played in 350 $2-$4 cash games. If I posted indiscriminately in each of these sessions, that's a potential loss of $700 - not nice.

So thinking further if I posted UTG each time, I could expect to win maybe 10% of the time with my random hand, so maybe that would cut back my losses to around $300-$400.
If I was sitting on the button and decided to wait for the Big Blind, then I'm giving up 8 hands so there's a potential loss of earning there which would probably make posting +EV (sorry I can't begin to think of how to do the math here).

Anyhow my question is to any Maths boffins that know at what position posting becomes neutral EV?

[SeaEagle]

The calcs are pretty straightforward. The sb+bb is what it costs you to play 10 hands at a full table, so (sb+bb)/10 is the average cost to play a hand. When you post, figure out how many hands you'll get for your bb and if that number is bigger than the average cost, you're better off waiting. Generally speaking, posting in the CO at a full table is about break even (+EV if your at a 2/3 structure and -EV at a 1/3 structure). Posting somewhere other than the CO (or at a partially full table) will cost you a little, but not much. Posting UTG could add up if you did it all the time.

[JinX11]

In a 10-player game, I believe posting in CO is actually beneficial (depending on blind structure). Break it down by hand: suppose you're playing a 10/20 game, with blinds of $5, $10.

If you post in the CO, you get to play 7 hands for $10 (~$1.42 / hand) before having to pay your next blinds.

If you post in the BB, you get to play 10 hands for $15 ($1.50 / hand) before paying your next blinds.

Obviously, as the game becomes short-handed, the less this is true. In fact, in a $10/20 game, if it is 9 handed, it does not matter whether you post in the BB or CO (it's $1.67/hand regardless of posting in CO/BB). 8 handed - better to wait for the BB (post in CO: $10 / 5 hand = $2/hand; post in BB: $15 / 8 < $2/hand).

[Octopus]

There is no set answer to this (as everyone's skill is different) and we will have to make some (very underinformed) estimates to even get close, but:

Let's assume that you lose .18BB each time you play the big blind and that this cost goes down with improved position. Let's further assume that you average a win of .04BB in the UTG up to .11BB on the button each time you are dealt in. If these numbers are right (and I have no reason to believe they are) then the break-even point would be about MP2 (or possibly MP1, depending the winrate as a poster in each position).

For myself, I will continue to post only in the CO or the hijack.

Edit: The other responses to this post are answering a slightly different quetsion. That is, when is posting more costly than waiting if waiting is not costly in itself. For most of us playing online, that is the case (waiting for an orbit takes very little time).

I have been educated. Thanks very much for the responses.

[flair1239]

There have been threads on Posting in the past. I think the consensus was that it did not matter one way or the other posting in late position.

My stand on Posting these days, is that I do not do it. When you are running multiple tables as most of us are and are getting several hundred hands an hour, it is just not a big deal to wait 4-5 min for the blind.

During this time, my HUD can get the table displayed properly, it gives me a window to go the bathroom, also gives a little time to scout for another table to replace on of my weaker ones.

Occasionally if I am in the last half hour of a session and I stumble across an excellent table, I will post then. But normally I don't.

[BadBatsuMaru]

One thing you're missing is the fact that the button is the most profitable position. You can certainly justify posting in the CO when you sit down, but it's not as good as you think, because you're skipping the most profitable position. I suppose you could also argue that by waiting for the BB, you're waiting till you're in the absolute worst position. Anyway, the CO is still a very good position, but things go downhill really fast, so while you can easily justify posting in the CO, posting in MP3 is shady, and posting in MP2 is just a bad idea.

When I sit down at a table, I'll post in the CO if the average pre-flop raise at the table is under 4%. If it's a really good table with VP$IP of 40% and PFR under 3%, I'll gladly post in MP3. If there are a few hyper-aggressive players at the table, you just want to wait for the blind. I've seen several more aggressive players who will raise with almost anything if there's a poster.

When you post in the CO or in MP3 and someone raises in front of you, you can usually call with even worse hands than you could in the BB because you have position (Ed Miller has an article about this), but keep in mind that you also have a greater chance of there being another raise behind you when you're posting if the table is aggressive. That is, if you're in the BB and someone raises, you can call with some pretty marginal hands because there isn't much chance of it getting re-raised behind you since there aren't many people left to act. When you post and there is a raise to your right, you are correct to call with a hand like Q9s, but you still have to worry about all the people still to act, and for all you know it could be capped, so if there's a lot of raising going on before the flop you probably shouldn't have posted in the first place.

I suppose these are considerations a lot of people wouldn't have to worry about because they just totally avoid tables with a lot of maniacs, but I'm one of the people who rather enjoys exploting sensless aggression.

Of course, if you've followed someone to a table who just spews cash, you should post almost anywhere. You just have to take the chance on picking up a big hand. There's nothing sadder than joining a table and seeing your buddy bust while you're waiting for the blind.

thanks for the insights

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
There have been threads on Posting in the past. I think the consensus was that it did not matter one way or the other posting in late position.

My stand on Posting these days, is that I do not do it. When you are running multiple tables as most of us are and are getting several hundred hands an hour, it is just not a big deal to wait 4-5 min for the blind.

During this time, my HUD can get the table displayed properly, it gives me a window to go the bathroom, also gives a little time to scout for another table to replace on of my weaker ones.

Occasionally if I am in the last half hour of a session and I stumble across an excellent table, I will post then. But normally I don't.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is exactly what I do. The most valuable factor is getting a few hands in the HUD. There are also some times when the table is tighter than it looked (maybe I replaced a total donk) and the hands while I'm waiting make me decide not to play at the table after all.

[krimson]

If you're a winning player it's +ev to post in the CO.

However I agree with Flair that online when multitabling it's just 10x easier to wait for the BB. Gather some initial stats on unknowns, and continue table hunting.