Real post - AA [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

TheWorstPlayer

10-24-2005, 01:20 AM

Villain is a bit loose preflop but nothing too terrible. Fairly decent postflop. Definite winner in the game. Some aggression postflop, but obviously not enough to seriously crush the games. I'm not sure I like my line, but I'm not sure where to raise or what to do if he re-raises. What do you think?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button ($420.60)
SB ($351.37)
BB ($335.16)
UTG ($445.80)
MP ($713.92)
TWP ($401.30)

Preflop: TWP is CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $4, MP calls $4, TWP raises to $20, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $18, 1 fold, UTG calls $16, MP folds.

Flop: ($68) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB bets $25, UTG folds, TWP calls $25.

Turn: ($118) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
SB bets $50, TWP calls $50.

River: ($218) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets $100, TWP calls $100.

10-24-2005, 01:32 AM

I don't like raising the flop, so if I raise anywhere it's the turn, either all in, or to $150 total. If he re-raises I dunno, probably fold.

11t

10-24-2005, 01:35 AM

I like the flop call but on the turn I would start to get worried. I would fold the river though. I cannot see one possible hand that a winning player could hold that doesn't have you beat.

10-24-2005, 01:36 AM

Similarish hand, fwiw:

Hero ($219.15)
--
--
--
--
BB ($100.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero raises to $7, 4 folds, BB calls $5.

Flop: ($15) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
BB bets $10, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($35) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB bets $15, Hero raises to $80, BB raises to $95, Hero calls $0.

River: ($210) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)

Final Pot: $210

Results in white below: 
BB has Kd 2d (one pair, kings).
Hero has Ad As (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins $210. 

edit: acutally, this hand is barely similar at all. meh

ericlambi

10-24-2005, 01:39 AM

I'd raise the flop to 60 in an effort to find out if he flopped the flush or not. Fold to a 3-bet. Not sure what to do if he calls and checks to you though.

ericlambi

10-24-2005, 01:40 AM

God bless players like that.

DrPublo

10-24-2005, 02:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like raising the flop, so if I raise anywhere it's the turn, either all in, or to $150 total. If he re-raises I dunno, probably fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

For the same price as raising the turn to $150 straight, OP got to see a showdown. So that turn raise can't be right unless you think it gets him to fold better hands.

The Doc

10-24-2005, 02:08 AM

If I was a psychic I would agree with you /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

TheWorstPlayer

10-24-2005, 02:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like raising the flop, so if I raise anywhere it's the turn, either all in, or to $150 total. If he re-raises I dunno, probably fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

For the same price as raising the turn to $150 straight, OP got to see a showdown. So that turn raise can't be right unless you think it gets him to fold better hands.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]
What if he'll call with the NFD on the turn but wouldn't put in another dime unless he hit the flush on the river?

10-24-2005, 02:09 AM

A real post! Finally. I was getting tired of those fake ones.

I dont see how you made the river call with all the likely hands beating you. That said, what do I know. Seriously, I don't know much.

DrPublo

10-24-2005, 02:11 AM

It feels like the villain's betting is consistent with a AcX type of hand, where X = J,Q, or K. So on that hand it looks like you're ahead and make the most by calling down. His river bet is also pretty weak and could be an effort to get you to fold a hand including the Ac (maybe AK or AQ), if he thinks YOU were on the draw.

At the same time calling down here is bad because most hands that lead the flop like that should have you beat by the river: QK, QJ, KT, Tx, etc.

The third though that enters my head is that raising the flop doesn't do much for you, because you allow a lot of the hands that you're beating but that have a big draw push, and then you have to fold. Your equity on the flop against pair + flush draw hands isn't overwhelming and so you'd hate to get pushed off your hand by a hand like AcJx.

Just some thoughts.

The Doc

DrPublo

10-24-2005, 02:13 AM

I think you should get better at flopping monotone boards that match your bullets.

The Doc

TheWorstPlayer

10-24-2005, 02:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The third though that enters my head is that raising the flop doesn't do much for you, because you allow a lot of the hands that you're beating but that have a big draw push, and then you have to fold. Your equity on the flop against pair + flush draw hands isn't overwhelming and so you'd hate to get pushed off your hand by a hand like AcJx.

[/ QUOTE ]
Does this third thought mean that I should raise the turn and call a push because now I'm well ahead of pair+draw? I don't think you can mean that because I don't think you can be happy calling a push (as I wouldn't have been). Which is why I didn't raise. Basically, I didn't raise anywhere because I thought he might push and I didn't want to call all-in. But I didn't fold because I HAVE ACES! (Should I fold anywhere?)

TheWorstPlayer

10-24-2005, 02:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should get better at flopping monotone boards that match your bullets.

[/ QUOTE ]
Like this hand from tonight?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button ($385.92)
TWP ($387)
BB ($127.45)
UTG ($175.96)
MP ($293)
CO ($145.30)

Preflop: TWP is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif. TWP posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, MP calls $4, 1 fold, Button calls $4, TWP (poster) raises to $14, BB raises to $24, MP folds, Button calls $24, TWP raises to $48, BB calls $22, Button calls $22.

Flop: ($154) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
TWP checks, BB calls $77.45 (All-In), Button folds, TWP calls $77.45.

Turn: ($308.90) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($308.90) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $308.90

Results in white below: 
TWP has Ah Ac (one pair, aces).
BB has Ts Th (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: BB wins $308.90.

elus2

10-24-2005, 02:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is a bit loose preflop but nothing too terrible. Fairly decent postflop. Definite winner in the game. Some aggression postflop, but obviously not enough to seriously crush the games. I'm not sure I like my line, but I'm not sure where to raise or what to do if he re-raises. What do you think?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button ($420.60)
SB ($351.37)
BB ($335.16)
UTG ($445.80)
MP ($713.92)
TWP ($401.30)

Preflop: TWP is CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $4, MP calls $4, TWP raises to $20, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $18, 1 fold, UTG calls $16, MP folds.

Flop: ($68) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB bets $25, UTG folds, TWP calls $25.

Turn: ($118) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
SB bets $50, TWP calls $50.

River: ($218) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets $100, TWP calls $100.

[/ QUOTE ]

i call the flop and and if he leads the turn i will raise a non-club and non-paint card and fold the rest. the purpose of my turn raise would be because there is still a decent chance that i am ahead against the range that he leads with, gives a price on his draws, and it makes it harder to misplay the rest of the hand such as those times where he bets > 2/3 psb on the river. it is difficult for villain to come over top here without the goods. of course we get to do all this analysis again for the river with the added bonus of trying to figure out how often he will bluff at a big pot with missed draws. your own read on villain will have to suffice for this last piece of information but in general i err on the side of caution and fold if he leads the river.

DrPublo

10-24-2005, 02:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like raising the flop, so if I raise anywhere it's the turn, either all in, or to $150 total. If he re-raises I dunno, probably fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

For the same price as raising the turn to $150 straight, OP got to see a showdown. So that turn raise can't be right unless you think it gets him to fold better hands.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]
What if he'll call with the NFD on the turn but wouldn't put in another dime unless he hit the flush on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think raising to $150 on the turn prices him out of the NFD? After you call the pot is 200, so 100 more gives him 3:1 to call. I think I'm right on the pot amounts.

I do think you get him to fold some better hands with a turn raise though. I would imagine most two pair hands have to. Although it depends on what cards he holds; if he's holding the Kc you can't convince him you have the nut flush with AKs.

The Doc

soah

10-24-2005, 02:17 AM

This is only correct if it's wayahead/waybehind. Any pair with a club is drawing at a ton of outs.

But I'm not sure I would raise the turn mainly because it looks like there is a reasonable chance that Hero is way behind. I think a pretty good case could be made for folding the river. I very much doubt he is firing a third barrel with just the naked ace after getting called twice on that board (and his bet size is inconsistent with a bluff). And if he's not bluffing then there's not much we can beat. The only thing going for us is that he may think that WE have the naked ace and he is making a blocking bet with something we beat. But then again, I'm still not coming up with many made hands that we can beat on that board.

DrPublo

10-24-2005, 02:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The third though that enters my head is that raising the flop doesn't do much for you, because you allow a lot of the hands that you're beating but that have a big draw push, and then you have to fold. Your equity on the flop against pair + flush draw hands isn't overwhelming and so you'd hate to get pushed off your hand by a hand like AcJx.

[/ QUOTE ]
Does this third thought mean that I should raise the turn and call a push because now I'm well ahead of pair+draw? I don't think you can mean that because I don't think you can be happy calling a push (as I wouldn't have been). Which is why I didn't raise. Basically, I didn't raise anywhere because I thought he might push and I didn't want to call all-in. But I didn't fold because I HAVE ACES! (Should I fold anywhere?)

[/ QUOTE ]

What I meant was the call flop, raise turn line works best when you get a turn brick (pairing the low card on the flop would be nice too). Turn K here isn't a brick so I would abandon the turn raise.

The Doc

TheWorstPlayer

10-24-2005, 02:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
But then again, I'm still not coming up with many made hands that we can beat on that board.

[/ QUOTE ]
If he has the ace of clubs, I'm ONLY behind if he has PRECISELY AT or AcXc. Of course if he doesn't have the ace of clubs I've probably been smoked on all three streets.

DrPublo

10-24-2005, 02:21 AM

Villain's bets throughout the hand are consistently puny. This leads me to believe he's either milking you like a little bitch or he's got a hand that's not quite there yet but wants to keep the "pressure" on. AcQ or AcJ look reasonable.

The Doc

JaBlue

10-24-2005, 02:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you should get better at flopping monotone boards that match your bullets.

[/ QUOTE ]
Like this hand from tonight?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button ($385.92)
TWP ($387)
BB ($127.45)
UTG ($175.96)
MP ($293)
CO ($145.30)

Preflop: TWP is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif. TWP posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, MP calls $4, 1 fold, Button calls $4, TWP (poster) raises to $14, BB raises to $24, MP folds, Button calls $24, TWP raises to $48, BB calls $22, Button calls $22.

Flop: ($154) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
TWP checks, BB calls $77.45 (All-In), Button folds, TWP calls $77.45.

Turn: ($308.90) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($308.90) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $308.90

Results in white below: 
TWP has Ah Ac (one pair, aces).
BB has Ts Th (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: BB wins $308.90. 

[/ QUOTE ]

what the hell is that preflop reraise?!?!

soah

10-24-2005, 02:24 AM

If he has the Ac, then he knows you don't have it, and if he knows that you don't have it, then he has to give you credit for having a pretty strong hand to be calling him down with. I would think that AJ at least would have to abandon ship on the river, hard to say what he'd do with AQ or AK. But as I said.... a few hands you can beat. And a lot that you don't. It really comes down to your read on him, but since you said he's not terribly aggressive I'm inclined to believe he's been ahead since the flop.

TheWorstPlayer

10-24-2005, 02:26 AM

So you fold river, turn, or flop?

TheWorstPlayer

10-24-2005, 02:26 AM

Off topic, but I figured BB would push for sure.

10-24-2005, 02:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
but since you said he's not terribly aggressive I'm inclined to believe he's been ahead since the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you first believe this after his flop bet, turn bet, or river bet?

soah

10-24-2005, 02:33 AM

I don't think I would fold on the flop or the turn. It's not terribly uncommon for people to lead twice with marginal hands, and he could easily be trying to protect his hand on a scary board. But firing again on the river is usually a hand. Maybe I'm way off on reading this guy, but the general feeling I have is that most players will check the river in this spot unless they've really got something. But I think it's close. I think I'd usually call and be ready to kick myself for it.

TheWorstPlayer

10-24-2005, 02:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd usually call and be ready to kick myself for it.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is the line that was taken in the actual hand. Glad I'm not the only one who prepares to kick himself.

FreakDaddy

10-24-2005, 03:00 AM

Isn't this another one of those flops where you win a little, lose a lot? With a limp call, either he flopped a flush, or he does indeed have some kind of Axs, QJ, 66, KJ, AcT and being loose even A6 with the draw. I don't know it feels like if you're going to call the flop bet, then I either push/fold the turn. Overall I don't mind the flop call, but I wouldn't flat call the turn.

BobboFitos

10-24-2005, 07:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is only correct if it's wayahead/waybehind. Any pair with a club is drawing at a ton of outs.

But I'm not sure I would raise the turn mainly because it looks like there is a reasonable chance that Hero is way behind. I think a pretty good case could be made for folding the river. I very much doubt he is firing a third barrel with just the naked ace after getting called twice on that board (and his bet size is inconsistent with a bluff). And if he's not bluffing then there's not much we can beat. The only thing going for us is that he may think that WE have the naked ace and he is making a blocking bet with something we beat. But then again, I'm still not coming up with many made hands that we can beat on that board.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with soah. I think this is a river fold. Look at that board!

TheWorstPlayer

10-24-2005, 07:07 PM

I beat his A/images/graemlins/club.gifQx. Now, here are two somewhat interesting questions:

1. How did I do from a Fundamental Theory of Poker perspective (i.e. if you knew his hand, would you play it differently?)

2. What line would you have taken if you were villain?

soah

10-24-2005, 07:48 PM

I think his play throughout the hand was pretty much terrible. A tight player raising two limpers has a hand. AQ out of position is an easy fold. Postflop he managed to price you in to make "crying calls" on every street with everything that beats him. Honestly... what is he hoping to accomplish? He never gives a better hand a spot to fold, and there are few worse hands which are going to call down, and he doesn't need to protect his hand (a free card is much more likely to improve him than to hurt him). The only possible explanation is that he was hoping to price himself in for his draw, but this makes no sense either because it assumes he is behind in the hand; if you think you're behind on a Qxx board then wtf are you playing AQo for? Almost every other line imaginable must be better than his.

rikz

10-24-2005, 08:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I beat his A/images/graemlins/club.gifQx. Now, here are two somewhat interesting questions:

1. How did I do from a Fundamental Theory of Poker perspective (i.e. if you knew his hand, would you play it differently?)

2. What line would you have taken if you were villain?

[/ QUOTE ]

1. I guess you won $25 Sklansky bucks because you incorrectly called the flop and turn, thus allowing him to draw out on you without paying more to do so on both the flop and turn (-$75), but you correctly called the river bet (+$100). Since I don't think he'd have called a push on the river from you, I don't think you lose any Sb's for failing to raise him on the river.

2. If I was villain, I'd have folded preflop with AQo out of position. Not having done that, on the flop I'd have bet at least 3/4 pot on the flop into you as the preflop raiser, called if you went all in, and pushed the turn if you called. TPTK + nut flush draw is good for getting all-in on the flop, but less good paying one card at a time. This villain lost his whole stack of Sbs.

EDIT:

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Qc Jc 6c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ad 554 55.96 427 43.13 9 0.91 0.564
Ac Qd 427 43.13 554 55.96 9 0.91 0.436

Even though villain is behind, I think a more aggressive line might have gotten you to fold, so he should have enough fold equity to make this +EV.

TheWorstPlayer

10-25-2005, 12:01 AM

About number 1, I don't think I lose any Sklansky bucks for calling when I'm ahead on the flop and turn. Yeah, I don't protect my hand as well as I might, but I am still making +EV calls, so I think I am gaining Sklansky bucks although perhaps not the optimal amount. However, if I raise at either the flop or turn, what does villain do? If villain pushes and I fold, then that is obviously a terrible terrible outcome. Which is obviously what I was afraid of. If I see his hand, I guess I raise the turn and call a push. But can that possibly be the optimal way to play it blind? I don't know. Doesn't seem like anyone likes that line and I certainly don't either since I think I'm crushed by most hands that push the turn.

As for 2, I agree. I think best line is to pot the flop and push the turn. If stacks were deeper I would like to c/c flop and c/r turn all in.

Big_Jim

10-25-2005, 04:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
TWP (poster) raises to $14, BB raises to $24, MP folds, Button calls $24, TWP raises to $48

[/ QUOTE ]

Make a real raise... you know better.