What I'm reading today

[PygmyHero]

I spend most of my time on 2+2 reading threads, so I thought it may be interesting to post about whatever I'm studying.

I will post the name of the forum that the thread is from, the OP's name, the post title, the post number, and the date. That way if a post gets archived, it will still be easy to locate.

If this is well received, I will try to update it daily, as I am usually on 2+2 every day. If not, no big deal.

Forum: Small Stakes Limit Texas Hold 'Em
Poster: bobbyi
Thread: Please dissect this drawing hand (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=3688548 &fpart=1&PHPSESSID=)
Number: 3688548
Date: 10.16.05

To be fair, this link was just posted a few days ago, but I can't remember who gets the credit - I think it was GregJ (who contributed to the above thread).

My thoughts, which I'll keep very brief today as I don't know if people will appreciate this or not:

In this hand, you have a draw to the second nut flush on the button with 3 other players in. The debate is over whether the flop and river should be called or raised (you make the flush on the river).

This is a fairly complex thread. I think everyone should be able to learn something from this thread.

I feel that the flop action did not receive sufficient discussion. That is unfortunate since that aspect of the hand is the most interesting and challenging, in my opinion. A few people stated their opinions, but I do not feel anyone gave a compelling argument as to why they would choose a certain action.

Personally, I would just call on the flop, and I don't think anyone made an argument that will lead me to alter my play in this type of situation. However, the consensus seems to be that it is close.

The river action received a lot of discussion, but the second half of the thread degenerates into a pissing match (without much content) between Borodog and Evan. Honestly, you should read the first half of the thread and completely ignore the second half. You won't miss anything.

My thought here is that you should raise the river, and I really feel Evan gave some good analysis and insightful thoughts as to why this was the proper action. However, there are arguments for calling, and I feel a number of people made very good posts in this thread.

Would people be interested in me continuing to post like this? I am open to any criticisms or suggestions for improvement.

[Greg J]

I remember this thread. I originally advocated a smooth call on the flop, but Evan really made a great case for raising and ended up convincing me.

As for the flop, I don't think it recieved as much debate b/c it's not as close a decision as you think. That was a routine call, but I think it's indicative that here in ML people often tend to advocate betting and raising when calling is actually better.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
That was a routine call, but I think it's indicative that here in ML people often tend to advocate betting and raising when calling is actually better.

[/ QUOTE ]
it's table/opponent dependent. at that table it was a call, at many many lower limit tables, that's a raise.

[PygmyHero]

Forum: Texas Hold 'Em Archives
Poster: bunky9590
Thread: Newest Pet Peeve. (Reads)
Number: 1775375
Date: 2.21.05

This thread is basically what you'd expect - an admonition and a warning that we're using stats too much at the expense of reads. While this isn't a new thought, I think it is valuable to have reinforcement every so often. Relying too much on stats is something I think everyone is guilty of periodically.

Here's a similar thread:

Forum: Microlimit
Poster: Entity
Thread: When a read is not a read
Number: 2302308
Date: 5.3.05

In fact, tiltaholic links to bunky's thread near the end of Entity's thread.

There are two things I really like about Entity's thread:
1) Since it's by ENTITY, you're more likely to read it and listen to his advice.
2) He does something bunky does not, which is make an explicit challenge to turn off your HUD and work on your reads and notes. I really think this is a valuable exercise.

As long as I'm sighting some work on reads, here's another thread some may find useful:

Forum: Microlimit
Poster: Droolie
Thread: Pay Attention of Just Pay (how to develop your reads)
Number: 3158790
Date: 8.16.05

This is a really good post by droolie, and there is the additional benefit of having an excellend picture of him in the thread.

And now, some nonsense...I read the famous pattern mapping thread today for amusement. Its everything you've heard it is, only worse by a factor of x=y*sqrt(37.2fn(z^3)log8). I found jek's comments particularly funny. Really, don't read the whole thing. It really deteriorates, but I'm not sure exactly where. Definitely don't read any of the essays.

Forum: Internet Gambling Archives
Poster: ctv1116
Thread: Can Party Poker 4th and 5th street cards be predicted?
Number: 498421
Date: 1.27.04

I also found it hilarious (as one poster in the thread pointed out) how many people posted questions like, 'OMFG, is this for real?!?!?!' despite the fact that the thread had been going on for a while and numberous posters were already saying what a great joke it was.

[Evan]

If anyone is interested, I used this hand as an example in an article about analyzing hands. You can read the article here (http://www.checkraised.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=32).

[PygmyHero]

Hmmm...I just noticed my links aren't working. Actually, it looks like they don't exist. I must have forgotten to add them or something. Please find them below:

Newest Pet Peeve. (Reads) (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=holdem&Number=1775375)

when a read is not a read (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2302308&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&fpart=1&vc=1)

Pay Attention or Just Pay (how to develop your reads) (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=micro&Number=3158790&fpart =1&PHPSESSID=)

Can Party Poker 4th and 5th street cards be predicted? (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=498421&page=0)

Edit: I don't know why they're not showing up as links. The code seems correct. You can cut and paste the address. I'll try to post them as links again later. Sorry!

Edited by the moderator to fix your links. For some stupid reason, links break if the post is too long. "Too long" isn't all that long. The one link you posted that was super-duper long caused the whole thing to break. If, instead, you cut off the post after the first instance of "Number=#######" and delete the rest, things will look better. To see for yourself, quote this and see where I cut it off.

[MrWookie47]

Oh man, not that "can cards be predicted?" thread again. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[PygmyHero]

[ QUOTE ]
Edited by the moderator to fix your links. For some stupid reason, links break if the post is too long. "Too long" isn't all that long. The one link you posted that was super-duper long caused the whole thing to break. If, instead, you cut off the post after the first instance of "Number=#######" and delete the rest, things will look better. To see for yourself, quote this and see where I cut it off.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks for fixing the links Wookie. I did not know that and will make sure I am attentive to it in the future. And yes, that is a long thread.

[benkath1]

[ QUOTE ]
If anyone is interested, I used this hand as an example in an article about analyzing hands. You can read the article here (http://www.checkraised.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=32).

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent hand analysis. I think this:

[ QUOTE ]
When UTG+2 check raises we should just call again, even though we have relative position that could make a raise +EV, because we will gain more by preserving our implied odds

[/ QUOTE ]

is something most micro players fail to consider. It might not be relevant in most of the games we are playing, but I just keep reading it to get it to soak in. So many times, I have raised here, only to have it check/folded, or check/called by one, on the river when my hand hit. By smooth calling, you are inducing a river bluff/value bet, who will pay you off anyway.

[PygmyHero]

Well I lost my internet connection yesterday due to inclement weather, so I missed a day...bet you all thought it was going away, huh?

Today's topic is flush draws.

Forum: Microlimit Archives
Poster: Ajax410
Thread: A definitive post on playing flush draws (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=1174623&page=0&fpart=1&v c=1)
Number: 1174623
Date: 10.25.04

There's some decent discussion of effective odds in this thread, a topic that I've only seen online a few times (and in TOP).

Although this is Ajax's post (and meaning no disrespect to him), I feel the best comments come from jrz1972, jason1990, and srt19170.

jason1990's point
[ QUOTE ]
This is interesting. If you have J, Q and get a flush draw on the flop, what I would worry about most is two hearts coming, so that the lone K or A will beat you. It's as though you have a "reverse backdoor flush draw" on top of your flush draw. This seems to suggest you should deduct 1.5 outs (if you know the K or A is out there). This gives you only 7.5 outs, which is 2.4:1 of coming in by the river. Hence, you need at least three callers to bet/raise for value.


[/ QUOTE ]
is one that I feel is frequently overlooked. People rarely discount their outs (correctly, or at all) for the chances of being beaten by a full house, quads, a bigger flush, or a straight flush.

I feel like it is a fairly common practice to bet out with your flush draw nowadays, and furthermore, many people will recognize it for what it is. This is, to a large extent, a conventional play now, even at fairly low limits. However, it is much more rare for people to raise or check raise with their draws, and almost unfathomable that anyone would ram and jam (more on that next time).

The idea of disguising your hand by betting OOP is well known, so I won't drone on about it. From later position, the free card play is another commonly known concept, but I'd like to expand that idea a little bit.

I have never seen anyone post about the free card out of position play. In my mind the free card OOP play is check raising the flop, and then checking the turn, hoping it gets checked all the way through. This DOES work sometimes (especially if you sometimes check raise the flop with other hands in EP).

I think it works because after you check raise the flop, whoever’s in the hand will be very reluctant to bet the turn, even if you check to them. Here's the player's thought process: 'I'm sure as hell not letting him check raise me two streets in a row!' After all, how silly would that look?

A lot of low limit players are not confident enough about their reads, or they may not accurately assess the strength of their hand. It's even possible that they may suspect that you want them to check, but again, this is low limit – they don’t have the courage to bet. Thus you gain the free card.

Basically, I think that this sort of play adds quite a bit to your meta-game and needs to be employed from time to time. There could be future situations where you cr the flop with say, TPTK or better, and check the turn (many players will fold to a turn bet UI), but get paid off on the river, almost due to their curiosity (regardless of their holdings). They think they're 'paying for information.'

[PygmyHero]

OMFG! You mean there's poker content online in places other than 2+2?

Indeed. Today's post has links to two of the most helpful sites I've found. Many people probably already know about them, but for those who don't, you're about to see what you've been missing out on.

I hope you read yesterday's post or have a good understanding of it since today's material builds on it to some extent.

Website: posev
Writer: Abdul Jalib
Link: Theory of Sucking Out (http://web.archive.org/web/20000823010545/www.posev.com/poker/holdem/strategy/outs-abdul.html)

You won't find anything too revolutionary in that link, but I think its a great site nonetheless. I feel Abdul always does a good job laying things out clearly and concisely.

Website: Playing with the Fish
Writer: Izmet Fekali
Link: Rammin' and Jammin' on a Draw (http://www.fekali.com:3455/16/26)

There is some discussion about ram and jam on the forums occasionally, but it is rarely named so. At the least, I think its helpful to introduce this terminology. If you're unfamiliar with the concept...well, you're really losing a lot of EV+ if you play in loose games.

I have nothing to add for either of these links. Those two guys know their stuff and they convey concepts well.

Addendum: I tested both of the links and the one to Jalib's page works sporadically. Just keep trying it - it never took me more than a few tries.

[PygmyHero]

I recently started playing 6 max and have been spending a lot of quality time with MrWookie47's Baby Steps post. I can only get through so much in one day, and many time the threads have links to new threads, and so on...

So I'm just going to tackle it in little bits. Today I'm going to cover some hand examples.

(So just to be clear, these links can be found in Wook's thread)

Forum: HUSH
Poster: Guido
Thread: Some hands (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=&Number=770085&page=&view= &sb=5&o=&fpart=)
Number:770085
Date: 6.21.04

Forum: HUSH
Poster: Guido
Thread: Some more hands (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=&Number=770087&page=&view= &sb=5&o=&fpart=)
Number: 770087
Date: 6.21.04

[PygmyHero]

I thougt it would be appropriate to let NPA have the last word on flush draws (which I posted about two and three days ago).

Forum: Microlimit Archives
Poster: William Wilson
Thread: Conversations with Major on "charging" flush draws (long) (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=&Number=463571&page=&view= &sb=5&o=&fpart=)
Number: 463571
Date: 1.3.04

Don't worry, it's not actually that long.

I'm sure most of you have read that, so here's another one:

Forum: Small Stakes Archive
Poster: laceratedsky
Thread: Some questions concerning flush draws... (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=370094& fpart=1&PHPSESSID=)
Number: 370094
Date: 10.13.03

[PygmyHero]

Wow, I made the ML Digest!

That was actually going to be one of my November goals.

I lost my internet access for a week thanks to a wiring SNAFU, so I haven't been able to keep up with this thread. But making the Digest, plus some encouragement from a poster via PM (which I really appreciated by the way) makes me want to give this another go.

First of all, since I haven't been able to read online material, I took the opportunity to read most of David Foster Wallace's latest book, Oblivion. (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/096591478X/002-5956801-7612815?v=glance&n=283155&n=507846&s=books&v=glanc e)

I don't know how many people here are readers, but if you are, I probably don't need to tell you about DFW. For those of you who don't know of him, he's brilliant. I've read quite a bit and he's my favorite. But, you have to see for yourself. He has quite a few other good books too. If you want to read his most well known book, just go to a bookstore and obtain the largest book (excluding compendiums) in the fiction section. You are now holding a copy of Infinite Jest. It is long. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Anyway, here's today's thread:

Forum: THE Archives (that's Texas Hold 'Em Archives)
Poster: PDosterM
Thread: Just Calling with AK on the Big Blind (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=&Number=625596&page=0&vie w=&sb=5&o=0&fpart=all)
Number: 625596
Date: 4.11.04

This thread is extremely long, but I think there's some really good tidbits of information buried in it. Unfortunately, the thread kind of devolves into an argument between astroglide and John Feeney. Nonetheless, they both present compelling arguments in between not-always-so-subtle attacks on each other.

For the faint of heart, I will be posting a Cliff Notes type synopsis of this thread later tonight. I create Word files which summarize the parts of threads I found useful, and I want to mull this one over a little more before I do that. When I do, I will post it.

[PygmyHero]

So I've been having some trouble handling Ax in 6 Max games. You can see my thread here:

Forum: Microlimit
Poster: PygmyHero
Thread: A typical 6 Max hand that's giving me trouble... (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=3906600&an=0&page=2&vc=1 )
Number: 3906600
Date: 11.10.05

deception5 referred to an earlier thread where he made some comments on this type of hand. It took me a little while to find it, but here it is:

Forum: Microlimit
Poster: numeri
Thread: Axo 6-max from CO (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=3883807&an=0&page=11&vc= 1)
Number: 3883807
Date: 11.7.05

I also found this in Wookie's 6 Max Baby Steps:

Forum: HUSH Archives
Poster: econom1st
Thread: Request for hands: Ace high makes it to showdown (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=&Number=2214124&page=0&vi ew=&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)
Number: 2214124
Date: 4.22.05

That's all I have for today. I know I said I'd post a summary of the AK in the BB situation, which I will still do at some point in the future.

[PygmyHero]

I remember that when I started playing poker the most valuable tool to me were start charts. I used Krieger's, along with some WLLH guidelines. These were quite a bit more valuable to me than talk about implied odds and other concepts which were above my head at the time.

As I've been trying out 6 max, it occurs to me that maybe I should approach the game as if I know nothing about poker. Yes, I will still be able to calculate odds, make reads, etc., but the point is, maybe my game would benefit most by making sure I'm really solid on the fundamentals. If you're a sports fan, I think the way the Pistons and Spurs play basketball, or the way the Patriots play (maybe used to play, we'll see) football are apt examples.

As such, I'm currently concentrating on my starting hands and PF play.

Forum: HUSH
Poster: MEbenhoe
Post: Starting Hand Chart v2.0 (In Progress Update) (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=headsup&Number=1897985&fpa rt=1&PHPSESSID=)
Number: 1897985
Date: 3.10.05

This is the oft cited start chart, and it is pretty good. There is a lot of discussion about it in the thread that follows, some useful, some not.

THIS WILL SAVE YOU SOME TIME:
While you can find Excel versions of the above chart, I think there is a better one, which is actually found in the thread, but here it is:

Forum: HUSH
Poster: mantasm
Post: Re: Starting Hand Chart v2.0 (In Progress Update) (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=2016845)
Number: 2016845
Date: 3.27.05

I think this chart (available as an Excel file) has better formatting and better (i.e. more 'correct') information. The colors aren't as garish, the hand groupings are more logical, there are fewer actions (i.e. you're not overwhelmed with R, C, C2-3, RR, F, C2/R1, CC, R/F, etc.), and, maybe most importantly, it has a section on defending the blinds, which MEbenhoe's lacks.

And now, to borrow from Wookie, if you're looking for a little more advanced discussion of PF hands, check out these old davidross threads.

Forum: HUSH
Poster: davidross
Post: Back to Basics. What do you do pre-flop? (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=518462&an=&page=0&vc =1)
Number: 518462
Date: 2.9.04

And, something of a follow-up to the above thread:

Forum: HUSH
Poster: davidross
Post: The proper level of aggression ?? (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=548714&an=&page=0&vc =1)
Number: 548714
Date: 2.26.04

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
I remember that when I started playing poker the most valuable tool to me were start charts. I used Krieger's, along with some WLLH guidelines. These were quite a bit more valuable to me than talk about implied odds and other concepts which were above my head at the time.

As I've been trying out 6 max, it occurs to me that maybe I should approach the game as if I know nothing about poker. Yes, I will still be able to calculate odds, make reads, etc., but the point is, maybe my game would benefit most by making sure I'm really solid on the fundamentals. If you're a sports fan, I think the way the Pistons and Spurs play basketball, or the way the Patriots play (maybe used to play, we'll see) football are apt examples.

As such, I'm currently concentrating on my starting hands and PF play.

Forum: HUSH
Poster: MEbenhoe
Post: Starting Hand Chart v2.0 (In Progress Update) (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=headsup&Number=1897985&fpa rt=1&PHPSESSID=)
Number: 1897985
Date: 3.10.05

This is the oft cited start chart, and it is pretty good. There is a lot of discussion about it in the thread that follows, some useful, some not.

THIS WILL SAVE YOU SOME TIME:
While you can find Excel versions of the above chart, I think there is a better one, which is actually found in the thread, but here it is:

Forum: HUSH
Poster: mantasm
Post: Re: Starting Hand Chart v2.0 (In Progress Update) (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=2016845)
Number: 2016845
Date: 3.27.05

I think this chart (available as an Excel file) has better formatting and better (i.e. more 'correct') information. The colors aren't as garish, the hand groupings are more logical, there are fewer actions (i.e. you're not overwhelmed with R, C, C2-3, RR, F, C2/R1, CC, R/F, etc.), and, maybe most importantly, it has a section on defending the blinds, which MEbenhoe's lacks.

And now, to borrow from Wookie, if you're looking for a little more advanced discussion of PF hands, check out these old davidross threads.

Forum: HUSH
Poster: davidross
Post: Back to Basics. What do you do pre-flop? (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=518462&an=&page=0&vc =1)
Number: 518462
Date: 2.9.04

And, something of a follow-up to the above thread:

Forum: HUSH
Poster: davidross
Post: The proper level of aggression ?? (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=548714&an=&page=0&vc =1)
Number: 548714
Date: 2.26.04

[/ QUOTE ]

The biggest change you'll find from the starting charts from 6max as opposed to full tables, is that you will need to deviate from them more based on reads. With more blind steal opportunities, and way more LAGs, you'll need to be raising and 3-betting more liberally, as well as setting up future streets when you're HU vs thinking players. That said, the charts are a nice point of departure.

[PygmyHero]

WARNING: The threads I link to are long, as is this post.

DavidC recently made a post in which he linked to a few threads asking higher limit players to talk about their journey. I'm going to link to each of those threads individually as it will be easier to find them if they ever get archived.

Forum: Mid-, High Stakes Limit HE
Poster: DavidC
Post: How did you get where you current are? (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=3660099&an=&page=0&v c=1) (sic)
Number: 3660099
Date: 10.13.05

Forum: Mid-, High Stakes PL & NL HE
Poster: DavidC
Post: How did you get to where you currently are? (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=3677370&an=&page=0&v c=1)
Number: 3677370
Date: 10.14.05

deception5 also added this thread which details bicyclekick's astronomical rise as a poker player:

Forum: THE
Poster: bicyclekick
Post: My story (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=2318608&an=&page=0&v c=1)
Number: 2318608
Date: 5.5.05

I really enjoyed all of these threads. It's really inspiring to read about people 'making it.' I don't know if many people here aspire to make a full-time career of playing poker, but if you do, this may provide you with some motivation.

Personally, that is not necessarily my plan. If it happens, great. If I just get some more discretionary income, that's great too. My goal is simply to improve, and wherever that leads me is fine. However, I don't do things half-ummm...way, so...you never know. I feel this may accurately describe a lot of people in the ML forum.

Besides the stories, there were 3 posts that stuck out to me:

Alex/Mugaaz: "I find it amazing how so many of the best posters in each forum made some of the worst decisions possible multiple times beforehand."

This was a comment on the number of people who seemed to take a shot (possibly under-BR-ed) and were successful. It seems like some got lucky at the higher limit. Others won a big tournament, allowing them to take a shot.

Lawrence Ng: "Taking good chances and good risks to move up and not fear losing (this is one the one obstacle that hinders a lot of poker players imo)."

I think the problem with Alex' post is that it ignores the selection bias that DavidC's OP created. That is, the post is in Mid-, High, so presumably the responses will be from winners (maybe big winners). DavidC's not going to get a bunch of posts from people saying they gave it a shot, lost $X (maybe taking a shot), went back to their normal job, etc.

Furthermore, it seems logical that people who had an spectacular journey (i.e. a big win, success in taking that shot), were more likely to respond, (correctly) thinking their story is interesting. However, even within the threads, there are indications that many people grinded it out (The Davester / sfer is an example), but aren't going to post their story, which they may perceive as boring or tedious.

In any event, I am led to the conclusion that maybe taking shots can be beneficial to a player's game and BR, if done correctly.

El Diablo: "BK's willingness to drop down is an important factor in his ability to take these shots and take advantage of lucky runs at higher limits.

Most guys who take shots like BK bust out because when they start to run bad, they keep playing high while way underbankrolled."

I've never seen much info on 'shot-taking,' but there, at least, is some advice. It seems like the amount with which to take a shot would be easy to determine (whatever you can afford to / stomach losing). But how do you know when the shot is over (when you bust)? What if you do well? Do you stay at that limit, or move back down with a padded BR and take another shot later? Or do you take that money and 'shoot' higher (which seems to me like the poker equivalent of the Martingale strategy)?

I guess the whole idea of shot taking intrigues me because I've never done it before, and I'm wondering if it is something I should seriously consider. As I said, if I did, I would want some more information and guidelines. I woner partly because my BR is actually large enough to play 5/10, but I play 1/2 6 max. I wonder if I am stunting my potential as a poker player by not taking a shot.

why not at least move to 2/4 if your br is big enough for 5/10???

[DavidC]

Post: How did you get where you current are? (sic)

-------

Out-nitted again!

[PygmyHero]

Sorry DavidC. I meant no disrespect. I actually didn't really consciously type that, it's just how I read it in my head, and it came out my fingers.

I really enjoyed those posts. It was a great idea.

[PygmyHero]

[ QUOTE ]
why not at least move to 2/4

[/ QUOTE ]
As it is not critical for me to move up in limits (either for purposes of income or self-esteem), I always figured I'd allow myself the luxury of moving slowly. In the past, I've just moved up whenever I've felt comfortable (all one times). Maybe that will strike some people as an insufficient reason for not moving up, but ultimately, for my game, it's my call.

However, if taking shots is a good tool for improving my game (which I want), then I'm going to have to entertain it more seriously.

[GrunchCan]

Not long ago somewhere in SSNL I posted my theory on taking shots. I don't have it handy, so I'll try to sum up.

For a good player, taking shots is a good idea. In fact, if done correctly, taking a shot can be more +EV than grinding a lower limit which you are properly rolled for.

"If done correctly," is the critical, key phrase here. If you do it wrong - and it's easy to do wrong - taking a shot can burn your whole roll. Not to mention your state of mind.

Here's what I do. I grind the limit I'm rolled for in order to build a "mini-roll" for a level I want to take a shot at. Usually that roll is 2 buyins (at the higher limit) at no-limit, or 50BB at limit. Once I've generated the roll, I take it and play my shot game, expecting to lose the entire roll. This is critical. You can't expect to make your shot hit the target. You'll play scared, or loose, or wild -- in some way, you'll be on mild perma-tilt. Expect to lose however and ironicaly you have a better chance to play your A game.

So I play my target level until I lose the roll (usually this happens several times), get sick/bored/frustated with taking the shot, or make it stick my generating a full playing bankroll at the shot level. The new full roll is generated completely by profits in the shot level. If I break my shot mini-roll, I go back to my original level (now still fully funded) and grind out a new mini-roll again.

For example, your level now is 1/2, and you want to take a shot at 2/4. You have $600. You generate $200 more, making your roll $800. Take $200 and go play 2/4. Go broke several times, creating a new $200 mini-roll each time. On the 4th attempt, you build your mini-roll up to $1200, making your total balance $1800. Congratulations. You are now a 2/4 player, and you never really risked anything to get there.

[PygmyHero]

Hey Grunch, thanks for stopping by. I like your shot taking plan - those guidelines will be very helpful to me if I give it a go. I'll probably try to run a search for your SSNL post, though if anyone has it, please link me.

I can take 50BB to the next level ($200 at 2/4) and have absolutely no problem losing it. The problem arises if I first win for a little while, and then bust out (never hitting the full 300BB, that is, $1200). Let's say I hit $1000. I know from my experience with sticky casino bonuses that I have a very hard time not looking at that as $800 of profit that is now mine. I feel a certain amount of entitlement and have some urges to protect that money.

The problem arises if I am still short of my target (300 BB for the shot, the wr for a casino). While I could still play perfect BJ, I wonder if I would play too tight and scared, thuse making it harder to pick up that last little bit and get to 300 BB.

In other words, if I win first, but then bust out, it feels like I took $1000 for my shot, and busted out. Which is not going to make me miss rent or anything, but still sucks.

I know that this is not the correct mindset, and I am struggling to fight it. I realize that the inability to stomach that sort of loss (or sort of pseudo-loss in the shot taking case) may inhibit my abilities as a poker player. I feel like the whole aversion to money that big players talk about is an attitude that has to be cultivated, and I worry that maybe I don't have enough of it for certain poker endeavours. If that's the case, I think I can be fine with that and I'll be happy with poker playing whatever role in my life it settles into.

It occurs to me that some people on the board may be critical of my thoughts, and I'm fine with that. I am being honest about how I feel, and I think this sort of self knowledge is important to making good decisions (not just in poker).

I enjoyed the read, but found it kind of discouraging to see how fast people can get to higher levels of play. I started playing for money the last week of July, and I'm currently playing $.50/1 with a whopping $300 in my account. I didn't realize people could be mulittabling 5/10 and above in this amount of time.

[PygmyHero]

Hey, I'm sorry to hear that those threads may have had the opposite effect on you from what I intended.

You say you haven't been playing poker for long, so just to make sure you're aware of this...those people are absolutely the exception. There are easily hundreds, if not thousands of stories of people busting out or breaking even, or just generally not making it for every one success story.

Obviously you don't tend to see those types of stories on the 2+2 boards. Don't lose your perspective. I played $0.50-$1 for a long time.

[PygmyHero]

More on taking shots:

Forum: HUSH Archives
Poster: SpiderMnkE
Post: What is the path from 1/2 to 5/10 (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=1135559&an=&page=0&v c=1)
Number: 1135559
Date: 10.15.04

A lot of the discussion in this thread is site specific, and may or may not still hold true. From the posts though, I am beginning to wonder if Grunch's 50 BB shot plan is enough. Maybe 100 BB would be a better number (assuming, of course, that a person found losing that amount palatable). Certainly it would seem to give you a better chance of overcoming any variance and short term results.

Actually, the other thing I found interesting was some talk about a plan I've read a little about before. Namely, hopping into a full ring game that is currently short, and leaving when it fills up. If you're playing against normal full ring opponenets, they may not make the correct (or any) SH adjustments, allowing you to run the table over. While I don't necessarily think this would improve your poker game (as you will eventually play a SH table were you're not able to LAG it up), it may help pad your BR (for the shot or maybe even during the shot).

I received this via PM, and I am grateful to that poster. I'm not sure if they're okay with me divulging their ID or not, so I'll just link it up:

Forum: SSH
Poster: Josh (formerly sthief09)
Post: Bankroll Theory and Taking Shots (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=3044308&an=&page=0&v c=1)
Number: 3044308
Date: 8.3.05

This is a great post by Josh. I think he articulates a lot of the shot concepts and guidelines concisely. The rest of the thread kind of tails off into discussions about semantics and the exact size of a BR needed for such-and-such...you can probably skip everything but the OP and Smiley's correction about SD percentile.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
A lot of the discussion in this thread is site specific, and may or may not still hold true. From the posts though, I am beginning to wonder if Grunch's 50 BB shot plan is enough. Maybe 100 BB would be a better number (assuming, of course, that a person found losing that amount palatable). Certainly it would seem to give you a better chance of overcoming any variance and short term results.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess the size of the min-roll is player-dependant. Moreover, there are opposing forces at work when deciding the size of the roll. On the one hand, as you point out, a very small roll increases your exposure to variance and increases the chance that your shot may fail. But on the other hand, given that the roll is generated by grinding a smaller game, a 100BB mini-roll for the shot level could take a substantial amount of playing time to generate. The bigger the shot game is in relation to the regular game, the longer it takes to generate the roll and this effect is amplified.

So I guess everyone needs to decide for themselves how big of a roll they want to take a shot with. Consider how big the game is and how long it will take to create the mini-rolls you're considering. Also consider how tolerant you are of variance and how likely a failed attempt with a short roll will throw you off your game or dissuade you from trying again.

[ QUOTE ]
...hopping into a full ring game that is currently short, and leaving when it fills up. If you're playing against normal full ring opponents, they may not make the correct (or any) SH adjustments, allowing you to run the table over. While I don't necessarily think this would improve your poker game (emphasis mine)

[/ QUOTE ]

I may misunderstand what you're saying here, but I definitely do think that playing SH -- namely, learning to play it well -- will improve your overall poker game. One of the more obvious ways it helps you is by preparing you for when you are playing a full game in late position and everyone folds around. This happens a lot. It's very similar to playing a SH table. Another way is by making you concentrate on your play in the blinds, which is very different in many ways from playing a non-blind position.

Learning to play SH is one of those things that every poker player must eventually do if the hope to be successful. Many players see it as a dreaded chore that they know they need to do but don't really want to, like taking out the garbage in a snowstorm. I used to feel exactly this way. Take it from me, once you learn to play SH, it won't be a dreaded chore anymore. You'll love it.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry DavidC. I meant no disrespect. I actually didn't really consciously type that, it's just how I read it in my head, and it came out my fingers.

I really enjoyed those posts. It was a great idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

No worries, bro. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[PygmyHero]

Grunch - just to make sure I'm being 100% clear about this, I mean I login to Party, and look for 10 max and 9 max tables that currently have 2-5 people sitting at them, the fewer the better. I then sit at that table and play TAG, maybe LAG SH poker. When the table gets to 7-10 people, I leave, and repeat the process.

The idea is that I will be a better SH player than my opponents, who are accustomed to full ring play and won't know how to respond to my aggression. Once the game fills up, they're back in their element, so I have lost that edge (though I may or may not still have any edge at all). I leave and look for another table where I regain the SH edge.

[PygmyHero]

Today's reading was sent to me via PM by a longtime and well respected poster (who has graduated the ML forum, but still stops in now and then). Again, I really appreciate the links - I can never have enough reading.

I think this may have occurred in part because I threw in a sports analogy in one of my posts...

Forum: Mid-, High-Stakes PL & NL HE (don't be intimidated)
Poster: ML4L
Post: The Running Game (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=3313830&an=&page=0&v c=1)
Number: 3313830
Date: 9.4.05

I thought this was really interesting (and who's comprehension is not aided by a cogent sports metaphor?), and a well-articulated explanation of why you need to mix up your game. While it may be a little more germane to higher limits (I can already hear people saying that low limit players pay absolutely no attention to what you do), I still think it has it's place in the ML world.


Note to mods: I have changed the subject of the post to reflect the content, which I realize I should have been doing all along. Someone looking at the thread in threaded mode is going to have quite a time finding any one specific post. Obviously it is too late for me to change any of the old ones, but if you're bored...

Alternatively, if you're willing to make the changes, but unwilling to look through all the old posts and choose an appropriate subject line, please PM me and I'll send you back a list of titles, along with the accompanying dates. Thanks!

Rock on Pygmy!

This has been one of my favorite threads since I joined 2+2. It's giving me a lot of avenues to expand my horizons. Thanks for continuing to contribute to this!

[PygmyHero]

I was involved in the following hand the other day:

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (5.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (5.75 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.75 BB

Of course, at some point in the hand, I realized my kicker wasn't going to hold up (yes I know the 4 wasn't in play at the end - point is, I'm losing the hand unless I'm against a stone cold bluff), but I was having problems laying down trip aces (not the point of today's post, but can I really fold this hand?). Then I remembered once reading something about a way ahead / way behind line, and realizing that it must apply here (in that I'm either outkicked, badly, or I am crushing every hand that isn't 88).

So I decided to do some research, and I thought I'd share it here. I messed up the WA/WB line pretty badly (it should be check/call the flop and turn, bet the river).

I would recommed starting with this post, paying particular attention to what Entity says. This is a great intro to WA/WB as Entity explains the line clearly and concisely.

Forum: Microlimit Archives
Poster: BellyBuster7
Post: Ace-Ten vs. solid player (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=1874964&amp;an=&amp;page=0&amp;v c=1)
Number: 1874964
Date: 3.7.05

Now if you understand the concepts of WA/WB, the next thread will be very beneficial because it discusses why the line is better than some alternatives, namely leading the flop, or check raising the flop or turn.

Forum Microlimit Archives
Poster: Chris Daddy Cool
Post: Standard Hand 101 (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=888296&amp;an=&amp;page=0&amp;vc =1)
Number: 888296
Date: 8.3.04

If you feel like you have a solid understanding of WA/WB, feel free to skip the next two links, and go to the bottom link on the page (which is so important that I should probably devote a whole post to it). If you're not, or if you just feel like you could benefit from some more reinforcement, here are two more examples, though there's not too much in the way of new discussion in these threads. Also, be aware that they may link to / be linked from the two top links I posted.

Forum: SSH Archives
Poster: jason t
Post: A simple situation I hate being in (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=1905588&amp;an=&amp;page=0&amp;v c=1)
Number: 1905588
Date: 3.11.05

Forum: Microlimit Archives
Poster: davelin
Post: Did I Screw Up the Line? (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=2106330&amp;an=&amp;page=0&amp;v c=1)
Number: 2106330
Date: 4.8.05

And now, this last thread is deceptively titled because it won't really further you understanding of WA/WB specifically. However, it will help you with your repertoire of plays, as a whole. Part of understanding the WA/WB line is understanding other lines and when and why each one is applicable in certain situations.

Forum: Microlimits
Poster: soma
Post: Instances of WA/WB (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=2206499&amp;an=0&amp;page=0&amp; vc=1)
Number: 2206499
Date: 4.21.05

Schillx pulls a little bit of a thread hijack here (great hijack), and talk about different plays he uses in different situations. Unfortunately, he only gives greater detail and examples for about half of them, but this is really an incredible resource.

[PygmyHero]

I had what I thought was a really great hand example for inducing bluffs, but unfortunately I was unable to obtain the HH due to the fact that Paradise will only send me the 100 most recently played hands. Here's the gist:

Paradise 1/2 (5 max, 5 handed)
Hero is in CO with AA
Folded to me, I raise, everyone but the BB drops.

Flop is J62r
BB checks, I bet, BB calls.

Turn is 7 or bricks
BB checks, I check.

River 4 of bricks
BB bets, I call.

Villain shows KQo for K high.

I think the BB folds most hands to a turn bet here, which I don't want when I think he's drawing very thin (in the hand, he was totally dead). But I think a lot of people interpret checking the turn as indicating weakness (most likely putting the person of UI overs), and can't help bluffing at the river. I checked? Clearly you should bet.

On the end, calling is clearly correct as villain many times will not call a raise (even with a J here I think it'd be tough) unless he can beat you.

Here's King Yao on inducing bluffs. I haven't read his book yet (Weighing the Odds in Hold 'Em Poker (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0935926259/104-9745516-0311155?v=glance&amp;n=283155&amp;n=507846&amp;s=books&amp;v=glanc e)), but I've heard nothing but good things about it. It's lined up on my bookshelf and I hope to get to it before the end of the year. If the book is as well written as this post, it will be a tremendous resource.

Forum: HUSH Archives
Poster: skunkworks
Post: General question about inducing bluffs (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=719642&amp;an=&amp;page=0&amp;vc =1)
Number: 719642
Date: 5.30.04

And here's an old friend of the ML forum with a related post:

Forum: Microlimits
Poster: GrunchCan
Post: Fold Equity &amp; Bluffing (x-post) (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=3502712&amp;an=&amp;page=0&amp;v c=1)
Number: 3502712
Date: 9.26.05

[PygmyHero]

I wouldn't really recommend reading the whole thread (which I did), as most of it is filled with witty little aphormisms like: "raise." I thought this was one of the better, more thoughtful pieces of advice, and was worth sharing.

(Note on the forum: I always specify when a piece is in the archives when I link to it, but of course any thread could get moved the day after I post it, which I imagine would result in a broken link. The reason I bring this up is because today's link is currently still on the 2+2 server, but based on the date, I think it is more likely than some other posts to be archived soon. As I stated in the OP, that is why I provide so much information which may seem superlous - date, number, etc. - it will make it easier to find via search even if the thread gets archived.)

Forum: Poker Theory
Poster: JohnBond
Post: Best Poker Advice ever? (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=2272548&amp;page=&amp;vc=1)
Number: 2272548
Date: 4.29.05

[ QUOTE ]

If you feel like you have a solid understanding of WA/WB, then definitely read the next two links, then go to the bottom link on the page (which is so important that I should probably devote a whole post to it). If you're not, or if you just feel like you could benefit from some more reinforcement, here are two more examples, though there's not too much in the way of new discussion in these threads. Also, be aware that they may link to / be linked from the two top links I posted.

Forum: SSH Archives
Poster: jason t
Post: A simple situation I hate being in (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=1905588&amp;an=&amp;page=0&amp;v c=1)
Number: 1905588
Date: 3.11.05

Forum: Microlimit Archives
Poster: davelin
Post: Did I Screw Up the Line? (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=2106330&amp;an=&amp;page=0&amp;v c=1)
Number: 2106330
Date: 4.8.05



[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

Great work Pygmy.

Hand 1. I think Jason's line is best.
This way you get overcards to fold or call incorrectly.
Hand 2. Important post from JRZ1972 (last post on the page).

[MrWookie47]

Are you saying you like jason_t's fold? I am pretty sure I call that. Other than that I like his line.

This has been a good series. I've read a lot of the threads in here, but it's good to see some new ones I haven't. It's even good to reread the ones I've already read because I see things like this:

[ QUOTE ]
tiltaholic
stranger


Reged: 03/21/04
Posts: 7

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying you like jason_t's fold? I am pretty sure I call that. Other than that I like his line.

This has been a good series. I've read a lot of the threads in here, but it's good to see some new ones I haven't. It's even good to reread the ones I've already read because I see things like this:

[ QUOTE ]
tiltaholic
stranger


Reged: 03/21/04
Posts: 7

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I did write some stuff about the river but I lost it and had to redo the post.

On the river, I think b\f, c\c and c\f are all pretty close.

I like reading posts when Jason T was unsure about himself, when the WA\WB line was a new thing and Qtip had 31 posts.

The content in some of these posts is exceptional.

Once again, Nice work Pygmy.

[Guruman]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying you like jason_t's fold? I am pretty sure I call that. Other than that I like his line.



[/ QUOTE ]

I never got a cogent response on why betting the turn was bad. True, I was even more brutal as a poker player then than I am now, but still. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[PygmyHero]

Ah Wookie, you obviously missed one where GregJ was at...honestly, I think it might have been 3.

Anyway, glad you guys have been enjoying (and reading) the series.

[Felipe]

b00mp it! b00mp it!

[PygmyHero]

Thanks Felipe, I don't think I've ever been bumped before.

For those who follow this thread - I regret to inform you that I will not update it for 4-5 days over Thanksgiving. If I have time tomorrow, I may try to hit you with a little extra dose of material. If not, I strongly suggest you finish / review the WA/WB post, and make sure you hit Shillx's post in the last link.

[Guruman]

got this link (http://suckout.blogspot.com/2005/10/continuation-bets-with-overcards-in.html) about overcard cont bets in limit holdem from the session review.

I mean wow man. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[PygmyHero]

It's back!

With the holiday season nigh, I've been a little distracted. Additionally, the forum split has been a little odd for me since I'm trying to learn short handed HE, but I still would like to devote time to the Micros.

I've been reading a lot of threads that won't necessarily improve my game, but that have been enjoyable reads. So to ease my way back into the 'Reading Today' series, here are a few trip reports.

Here's the oft-cited and hilarious Inthacup Vegas trip:

Forum: NVG (News, Views, and Gossip)
Poster: Inthacup
Post: A trip report I never posted... (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=684930&amp;an=&amp;page=0&amp;vc =1)
Number: 684930
Date: 5.14.04

There are also links to two other trip reports near the end of the thread. I thought they were also pretty good, though not as outright hilarious.

This next one isn't funny, but extremely enjoyable nonetheless. It's by that Greg Raymer guy who I guess did something big in 2004. Of course, this trip report is pre-WSOP champion days, and, in light of that, this comment by Greg is pretty amusing:

[ QUOTE ]
I sure hope it's not too long before I win one of these big ones. I hate waiting. ;-)


[/ QUOTE ]

Also, if you read all the way to the end of the thread (it's not too long), there's are a few interesting comments about Hoyt Corkins, who was not nearly as well known when Greg first posted this. Here's Greg again:

[ QUOTE ]
Sounds like that Hoyt guy who is the chip leader at the final table. Sounds like he's not really that great of a player, just another one-speed super-aggressive player on a run of cards.


[/ QUOTE ]

To be fair, he recants these comments a few posts later in the thread.

Forum: MTT Archives (Multi Table Tournaments)
Poster: Greg (FossilMan)
Post: FossilMan's Foxwoods Trip Report, Championship Event (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=408838&amp;page=0)
Number: 408838
Date: 11.16.03

Greg can write. It makes me hope he gets that book out soon.

[PygmyHero]

So after posting Inthacup's hilarious trip report yesterday, I was thinking about all the funny posts I'd ever read on 2+2, and figured they deserved their own post for easy reference.

This one's hilarious, though I probably can't appreciate it fully since I'm not extremely familiar with all the old posters and their style.

Forum: Mid- and High- Stakes HE Archives
Poster: CatsPajams
Post: Why I love these forums (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=158774&amp;an=&amp;page=0&amp;vc =1)
Number: 158774
Date: 10.13.02

Here's a classic and oft-cited thread. Sadly, I think I'm still only at step one.

Forum: THE Archives (Texas Hold 'Em)
Poster: Anonymous
Post: Evolution of a 2+2er (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Board=&amp;Number=42826&amp;page=&amp;vi ew=&amp;sb=5&amp;o=&amp;fpart=)
Number: 42826
Date: 3.21.02

This post wouldn't be complete without this classic post:

Forum: THE Archives
Poster: Joe Tall
Post: The damn Fish!!!!! Loose games RANT! (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Board=&amp;Number=491819&amp;page=&amp;v iew=&amp;sb=5&amp;o=&amp;fpart=)
Number: 491819
Date: 1.23.04

Here's one I only recently discovered, courtesy of illunious' favorite threads thread:

Fourm: SSH Archives
Poster: tpir90036
Post: pushing too hard with Bad Larrys? (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=540586&amp;an=&amp;page=0&amp;vc =1)
Number: 540586
Date: 2.22.04

The OP's not funny - make sure you scroll down and read tpir90036's later posts. The funny one's about 10 down.

Another discovery from illunious' thread:

Forum: NVG Archives (News, Views, and Gossip)
Poster: astroglide
Post: request:from the anals (not annals) of the unofficial 2+2 irc chatroom (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=577694&amp;an=&amp;page=0&amp;vc =1)
Number: 577694
Date: 3.14.04

Make sure you read TylerD's response.

And, of course, watching the videos at this next site is most assuredly PLUS EV!

KJo (http://www.billfillmaff.com/)

Inthacup's trip report belongs in this thread, but I just linked it yesterday (12/7/05). I would also probably include the notorious pattern mapping thread here, which can be found in my 10/24/05 post.

[PygmyHero]

Being aggressive preflop with a good hand is important, and I have been working to apply this in my game, particularly in situations where I have a big ace or a decent pocket pair. The rub is basically that I must raise to destroy the implied odds of all the hand that are limping against me (small pairs, suited connectors and the like). Here's Clarkmeister with an explanation:

Forum: Small Stakes Archives
Poster: Clarkmeister
Post: A good theoretical question (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=287441&amp;an=&amp;page=0&amp;vc =1)
Number: 287441
Date: 7.2.03

Here's another thread where Clarkmeister and others explain why you should raise preflop when you have the best hand. The Hero has JJ in the SB against 4 limpers. I think this is an especially good thread because this is a situation where a lot of people are more likely to just complete, knowing that their jacks will often not survive the flop.

Forum: Small Stakes Archives
Poster: bad beetz
Post: raise jacks out of the small blind? (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&amp;Number=301785&amp;an=&amp;page=0&amp;vc =1)
Number: 301785
Date: 7.26.03

For more reinforcement of the same concept, you can re-read the 'Playing AKo Preflop (Raise or Call)' post I made on 11/7/05.

Personally, I need a lot of reinforcement, so here are two more tools.

The Poker Room Database. (http://www.pokerroom.com/main/page/games/evstats/expValue)
You can use this to find the EV of specific hands in various positions against a certain number of opponents, and at a particular limit. If you don't want to repeatedly query the database, just take a look at the top left links on that page: total stats by card, and total stats by EV.

Please be aware that these stats are NOT a calculation. Rather, they are the result of many many hands dealt at Poker Room, and played by the players there. I am not sure how many hands, nor do I know how often the database is updated.

The GoCee.com Poker Database (http://www.gocee.com/poker/HE_Value.htm)
This page show the percentage of time a certain hand expects to win against x opponents. Note that this is against a certain number of opponenets, NOT the number of hands that were dealt. So the against 9 opponenets colum means you're at a full 10 person table (you are the 10th person but don't count as an opponenet). Likewise, against 1 opponent is HU.

Basically, you should be raising preflop if you expect to win more than your fair share. Your fair share is:

1/number of hands dealt.

Or,

1/(number of opponents + 1)

if that format makes more sense to you. So against 3 opponents, your fair share is 25% and you should raise with any hand that figures to win more often than this. Note that the table currently lists hands in the conventional order (AA, AK, AQ, ..., A2, KK, KQ, etc.), but you can also sort the table by percentage of pots won (that is, the best performers will be at the top). Again, the idea is to raise any time you will win more than your fair share, even if you hand does not currently figure to be best at the moment (there are certain hands that typically fall into this category - suited aces for example).