should i just fold preflop next time? [Archive]

newhizzle

10-23-2005, 08:44 PM

UTG+1 is loose passive, no other reads

Party Poker 15.00/30.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 folds, MP1 raises, 1 folds, MP3 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero dosent know what to do so he caps, 1 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (22.00 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
Hero is like word and bets, UTG raises, UTG+1 3-bets, MP1 folds, MP3 caps, Hero calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (18.00 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls and prays for the board to pair.

River: (21.00 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 folds, Hero looks at the pot, pukes, and calls hoping for a split.

Final Pot: 23.00 BB.

bad?

W. Deranged

10-23-2005, 08:50 PM

You should fold this pre-flop. I think TT is the borderline for hands to play facing a pre-flop raise and reraise. I've seen it advocated that JJ can actually merit a three-bet cold-call. QQ and up are obviously caps. 99 is not strong enough, and is WAY to likely to have to improve to a set to merit playing for that price.

Post-flop is fine. River is a real longshot but I can't fault you for calling for peace of mind. Maybe UTG+1 flopped a straight or something.

I also think there's a somewhat reasonable chance that you were actually drawing to only one out on the flop. MP3's line is quite consistent with QQ or TT.

jason_t

10-23-2005, 08:51 PM

Fold preflop.

10-23-2005, 08:53 PM

fold pre-flop /images/graemlins/smile.gif. I think I would just check out on the flop and then call down, You could already be allmost dead if anyone hold JJ QQ (1 outer or a split), probebly cry-call the river, hard do

toss

10-23-2005, 08:55 PM

I think capping 99 outta SB is bad. Calling depends on how likely you think the limpers are going to call a 3-bet and how often MP1 is going to cap.

I'd have trouble folding the river with like $631 in the middle, but come on! Is UTG+1 really going to 3-bet the flop after its been 3-bet PF, then lead the turn and the river without a flush?

JacksonTens

10-23-2005, 09:00 PM

Fold Preflop?? No way! I can remember a thread of Shant's ages back where he had 88 capped 4 way. As it is Whizzle has five players with him. I think that is definately enough overlay. Plus if he's going to play it he may as well cap it. But I would have called three cold.

I think this is a call. Surely the implied odds are there.

JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

W. Deranged

10-23-2005, 09:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Plus if he's going to play it he may as well cap it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not true. In fact, capping it is significantly worse than calling in my opinion, as we are out of position, are unlikely to be able to win this hand without going to showdown, and we actually want the limpers to stay in to give us an overlay as we go to the flop. (That is, if we decide to play.)

[ QUOTE ]
Surely the implied odds are there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Implied odds decrease as the size of the bets get bigger pre-flop. The number of bets that go in post-flop are not going to be that much bigger than if this were only one or two bets pre-flop. (You will get a few more chasers, but this is not a giant effect). And you are paying triple the price to see the flop.

Think of it this way:

Implied odds = f(price of bet faced, number of bets going to go in) = number of bets going to go in / price of bet faced

Price of bet faced (the function P) is an increasing function of the size of the pre-flop action.

Number of bets (N) going to go in post-flop, is also an increasing function of the size of the pre-flop action (s).

BUT, P increases linearly with the size of the pre-flop action (every additional bet/raise means you have to pay one more bet to see the flop), but N does not (every additional bet/raise slightly increases the size of the post-flop action, but not in direct proportion and not with slope 1).

For the mathematically inclined, we can say:

N'(s) => P'(s), for 0 < s.

P''(s) < 0 (I'm pretty sure this is true... I'd be interested in others' thoughts.)

If we look at F'(s), we have:

F'(s) = d/ds (P(s)/N(s)) = (P'(s)N(s) - P(s)N'(s))/(N(s)^2)

We notice that P(s) is generally larger than N(s) in any normal pot, and we deduce that F'(s) < 0 under normal circumstances. In other words, our implied odds decrease the more we have to pay pre-flop.

JacksonTens

10-23-2005, 09:39 PM

Deranged,

First of all when I said he may as well cap it. I did state, I myself would call, but I don't think capping is very far off, and definately not significantly! Think about this.. With a pot this big, someone has a big hand that is most likely going to cap it anyway, so whizzle may as well seize the initiative and do it himself.

In reference to him playing at all.
with 5 players in he's already getting 5:1 all he need is about 8 more BB for him to have the implied odds. I think with this many runners getting so aggro PF this is definately there.

I just can't find a PF fold here, its just too weak.

JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

BigBrother

10-23-2005, 09:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]

If we look at F'(s), we have:

F'(s) = d/ds (P(s)/N(s)) = (P'(s)N(s) - P(s)N'(s))/(N(s)^2)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, what he said!

gh9801

10-23-2005, 09:45 PM

I'm just curious about how you move from 3/6 to 15/30 in like 2 weeks which seems pretty amazing. The next coming of bicyclekick?

Anyways, fold preflop and I don't even think it's close

newhizzle

10-23-2005, 09:51 PM

does the 2/3 blind structure affect anything?

i think it at least makes it close

assuming everyone calls the 3-bet, im getting 5.4 to 1, on a cap, im getting 4.6 to 1, if i hit, will i not likely make those extra bets up?

also, if i can get by for one bet on the flop, i will have odds to draw

not saying its right, just trying to figure how close it is

what if im in the BB?

W. Deranged

10-23-2005, 09:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]

First of all when I said he may as well cap it. I did state, I myself would call, but I don't think capping is very far off, and definately not significantly! Think about this.. With a pot this big, someone has a big hand that is most likely going to cap it anyway, so whizzle may as well seize the initiative and do it himself.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point is that initiative is not that valuable here. Capping may force out players, whereas calling and then letting it get capped behind you might keep them in to increase your odds. Initiative is not always what we want; there are trade offs. We are very unlikely to win here without a showdown, so being in the lead may actually commit us to putting in bets that we won't want to put in with little hope of winning without showdown.

[ QUOTE ]
In reference to him playing at all.
with 5 players in he's already getting 5:1 all he need is about 8 more BB for him to have the implied odds. I think with this many runners getting so aggro PF this is definately there.

I just can't find a PF fold here, its just too weak.

JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

8 BB is a lot. Sure it's doable, but think about it this way. Those bets have to come from players who are NOT hero. Hence, something like 3 other players all putting in 3 SB on the flop (4.5 BB), 2 players putting in one bet on the turn (2 BB), and 1 player paying off 1 BB on the river (1 BB) would not provide the 8 BB you sight. That's a fair amount of post-flop action and that doesn't achieve the desired goal. So, just note that 8 BB is actually a whole lot and is hardly automatic here.

newhizzle

10-23-2005, 09:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just curious about how you move from 3/6 to 15/30 in like 2 weeks which seems pretty amazing. The next coming of bicyclekick?

Anyways, fold preflop and I don't even think it's close

[/ QUOTE ]

made 3 gs at 5/10 in something around a week, made 3 gs at 10/20 in 3 days, actually made 3 gs at 15/30 last night, but then lost it back at 20/40 because i was very very tired(long ass session), but couldnt seem to stop LAGing it up the shorthanded games

basically im a luckbox and have been running very well, and i probably have another major downswing coming my way soon

W. Deranged

10-23-2005, 09:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm just curious about how you move from 3/6 to 15/30 in like 2 weeks which seems pretty amazing. The next coming of bicyclekick?

Anyways, fold preflop and I don't even think it's close

[/ QUOTE ]

made 3 gs at 5/10 in something around a week, made 3 gs at 10/20 in 3 days, actually made 3 gs at 15/30 last night, but then lost it back at 20/40 because i was very very tired(long ass session), but couldnt seem to stop LAGing it up the shorthanded games

basically im a luckbox and have been running very well, and i probably have another major downswing coming my way soon

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, your approach is one that is highly suited for losing your entire bankroll very quickly. Playing one limit for more than 3 days is not a bad thing. Try it.

newhizzle

10-23-2005, 10:03 PM

i think moving up/down at 300 BBs is safe enough if i have the discipline to do it

W. Deranged

10-23-2005, 10:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i think moving up/down at 300 BBs is safe enough if i have the discipline to do it

[/ QUOTE ]

Much more important than having the bankroll for a certain level is having the confidence that you can beat the game to which you are moving up. Which is not to say you don't have that confidence. It's just important that you are reflecting as much on the growth of your poker ability as you are on the growth of your bankroll.

newhizzle

10-23-2005, 10:19 PM

the games get tougher, the swings get bigger, i claim to be no expert, but i feel that i have an edge in all partypoker games at least up to 30/60, if i select my games properly, i will have an edge

there are still crazys at the big games and as long as my opponents make more mistakes than i do, i feel that i have an edge, i think that is all the confidence i need

i will continue to work on my game, but i like to take profitable oppurtunities, plus i think in a tougher game, my skills should improve more

W. Deranged

10-23-2005, 10:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the games get tougher, the swings get bigger, i claim to be no expert, but i feel that i have an edge in all partypoker games at least up to 30/60, if i select my games properly, i will have an edge

there are still crazys at the big games and as long as my opponents make more mistakes than i do, i feel that i have an edge, i think that is all the confidence i need

i will continue to work on my game, but i like to take profitable oppurtunities, plus i think in a tougher game, my skills should improve more

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool. For what it's worth, my advice is directed as much as to other posters ambitious to move up as it is to you. You may well be perfectly suited to moving up quickly, but others might not be. Good luck at the higher limits.

newhizzle

10-23-2005, 10:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the games get tougher, the swings get bigger, i claim to be no expert, but i feel that i have an edge in all partypoker games at least up to 30/60, if i select my games properly, i will have an edge

there are still crazys at the big games and as long as my opponents make more mistakes than i do, i feel that i have an edge, i think that is all the confidence i need

i will continue to work on my game, but i like to take profitable oppurtunities, plus i think in a tougher game, my skills should improve more

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool. For what it's worth, my advice is directed as much as to other posters ambitious to move up as it is to you. You may well be perfectly suited to moving up quickly, but others might not be. Good luck at the higher limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks, didnt mean to come off as a dick in that or anything if it seemed like i did

10-23-2005, 10:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the games get tougher, the swings get bigger, i claim to be no expert, but i feel that i have an edge in all partypoker games at least up to 30/60, if i select my games properly, i will have an edge

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi hizzle,

This is a false statement. I've been tracking your posts as of late and I am surprised you are playing 15/30. IMO, you are a breakeven playmoney player at best. Your posts reflect a lack of knowledge regarding pot odds and hand values, and your 2+2 username reveals a subtle idiocy which I can not begin to describe.

I wish you good luck, but if I saw you sit down at 30/60 I would have to call Dyphus and have your bankroll taken away from you.

/images/graemlins/heart.gifTrish

newhizzle

10-23-2005, 10:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the games get tougher, the swings get bigger, i claim to be no expert, but i feel that i have an edge in all partypoker games at least up to 30/60, if i select my games properly, i will have an edge

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi hizzle,

This is a false statement. I've been tracking your posts as of late and I am surprised you are playing 15/30. IMO, you are a breakeven playmoney player at best. Your posts reflect a lack of knowledge regarding pot odds and hand values, and your 2+2 username reveals a subtle idiocy which I can not begin to describe.

I wish you good luck, but if I saw you sit down at 30/60 I would have to call Dyphus and have your bankroll taken away from you.

/images/graemlins/heart.gifTrish

[/ QUOTE ]

are you jason or rob?

W. Deranged

10-23-2005, 10:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the games get tougher, the swings get bigger, i claim to be no expert, but i feel that i have an edge in all partypoker games at least up to 30/60, if i select my games properly, i will have an edge

there are still crazys at the big games and as long as my opponents make more mistakes than i do, i feel that i have an edge, i think that is all the confidence i need

i will continue to work on my game, but i like to take profitable oppurtunities, plus i think in a tougher game, my skills should improve more

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool. For what it's worth, my advice is directed as much as to other posters ambitious to move up as it is to you. You may well be perfectly suited to moving up quickly, but others might not be. Good luck at the higher limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks, didnt mean to come off as a dick in that or anything if it seemed like i did

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry. I didn't think you did at all.

W. Deranged

10-23-2005, 10:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the games get tougher, the swings get bigger, i claim to be no expert, but i feel that i have an edge in all partypoker games at least up to 30/60, if i select my games properly, i will have an edge

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi hizzle,

This is a false statement. I've been tracking your posts as of late and I am surprised you are playing 15/30. IMO, you are a breakeven playmoney player at best. Your posts reflect a lack of knowledge regarding pot odds and hand values, and your 2+2 username reveals a subtle idiocy which I can not begin to describe.

I wish you good luck, but if I saw you sit down at 30/60 I would have to call Dyphus and have your bankroll taken away from you.

/images/graemlins/heart.gifTrish

[/ QUOTE ]

This post is hilarious. Thank you, Asian Correspondant Tricia Takenawa.

Piiop

10-23-2005, 10:41 PM

I'd call preflop and flop a set, except not with the rest of that flop. I'm pretty surprised you other guys said fold.

Edited to add some more why. At least one other player is loose passive and will call the 2 more a ton of the time. He's in the 2/3 SB so it's cheaper. His call entices the others to call as well (which also makes me think a cap is worse than a call or fold). He'll be playing for set value and will almost always get in a ton of bets postflop when he does. You'll occasionally get a tough flop like this or all undercards and have a difficult time postflop, but usually it will be pretty straightforward.

baronzeus

10-23-2005, 10:46 PM

newhizzle,

i dont know who you are or what you play like, but ignore the doubters about moving up. as long as you have 300BB and are willing to move down, your shots are fine. its tough to know whether or not you are +EV in the bigger games but in all honesty, with good table selection and focused, tilt-free, disciplined play, the shots have good long term expectation.

there will always be a group of haters (aka bankroll nits) who refuse to respect players who move up quickly. just ignore them. the most important thing to you should be to improve your game.

AllIn3High

10-23-2005, 10:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call preflop and flop a set, except not with the rest of that flop. I'm pretty surprised you other guys said fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're calling with 22-88 here as well?

I'm in the fold preflop camp on this one. TT I probably cap. JJ-AA i cap fo sure.

baronzeus

10-23-2005, 10:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd call preflop and flop a set, except not with the rest of that flop. I'm pretty surprised you other guys said fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're calling with 22-88 here as well?

I'm in the fold preflop camp on this one. TT I probably cap. JJ-AA i cap fo sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you cap with TT usually, calling with 99 can't be that bad of a decision. depending on the table you are sitting at, if you can make up enough bets postflop, this can be very +EV

jason_t

10-23-2005, 10:57 PM

JacksonTens

10-23-2005, 11:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So you're calling with 22-88 here as well?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm this is interesting... I'll call with 88,77 for sure. 66-22 depending on how I'm feeling.

[ QUOTE ]
TT I probably cap. JJ-AA i cap fo sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT-JJ is already drawing. I'm not capping. As for QQ... There is a definate argument not to cap here.

JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

AllIn3High

10-23-2005, 11:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you're calling with 22-88 here as well?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm this is interesting... I'll call with 88,77 for sure. 66-22 depending on how I'm feeling.

[ QUOTE ]
TT I probably cap. JJ-AA i cap fo sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT-JJ is already drawing. I'm not capping. As for QQ... There is a definate argument not to cap here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I've played too much shorthanded, so capping TT is probably a little frisky, but what I'm getting at is that if were're playing for set value with everything below QQ, why are we folding some pairs? I realise there's a chance we're gonna get set-over-set'ed and that 77 makes more straights than 22, but if calling w/ 99 here is +EV then why not call with all pocket pairs?

10-24-2005, 12:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I've played too much shorthanded, so capping TT is probably a little frisky, but what I'm getting at is that if were're playing for set value with everything below QQ, why are we folding some pairs? I realise there's a chance we're gonna get set-over-set'ed and that 77 makes more straights than 22, but if calling w/ 99 here is +EV then why not call with all pocket pairs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because even against a raise and a 3-bet, 99 has some value unimproved, especially if the board comes out all undercards. It's a lot harder for the board to come out all unders with 66. There's also the occasional overset we have to worry about more as we play lower pairs. I brought this up in the probability forum and was instructed it's a fractional margin at best, but hey, every little bit makes a difference. Also, if we had 99 with a spade here in this particular hand it would look a whole lot better than say, 22 with a spade.

As to the OP: I think it's a call or a fold. Capping is bad as it discourages others from coming along which we'd like for implied and deprives us of other information, such as which opponent ends up capping it if any. It's a lot easier to put villain on QQ if we let him cap it.