$650 - Diablo didn't know what I should do here...

[Yeti]

Atlantis $650.

13 get seats, I think there are 20 people left at this point. There may be 19 and we are waiting for one more to bust before we get down to 2 tables. Diablo may be able to clarify on that.

Anyway, not a whole lot happening. It seems to be taking forever for someone to bust. Villain was previously pretty aggressive but then slowed down a lot. 2 or 3 orbits earlier he completes in the sb, I raise KT he calls. JTT he shoves with KJ and I doubled up to my current $40k.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1600 (6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Hero (t38741)
Button (t14739)
SB (t15681)
BB (t81407)
UTG (t16615)
MP (t21553)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds
MP raises 3200 to 4800
Hero?

I'd reraise all in right here, if you double up you can sit out into a seat. If you lose, you still have about 10bb's left and aren't in complete danger. And villian might fold to the big reraise here which would get a nice chunk of chips added to your stack. Since it's shorthanded, villian has a wider range, and you have a premium hand here.

against his range of hands you likely have him dominated given his shortish stack/open raise/and it's short-handed and he will almost always fold and as the previous poster pointed out you still have some chips to play with if you do lose.

[Exitonly]

well he'd call a push w/ JJ+, AKo/Aks, and you're a slight underdog to that range, w/ pot odds and fold equity, clearly a +cEV push. But since it's a satelite, and you're in very good shape, but not quite clinched yet, i think a push is too risky. If you call, and then push over the top of any non A or K flop, you get more money into the pot by inferior hands, inferior hands like AJ might call you on the flop if they hit their J, but wouldn't have called preflop. Against AA/KK you lose the same amount you would have (unless a K or A hits) by pushing PF.

You might fold the best hand sometimes, but even after doing so, you're still going to be in great shape.

I like a call, and then pushing any non A or K flop.


edit: one thing i don't like about calling though.. it's begging the BB to squeeze you two out of it, since you can't call his push. So a read on him would help.

Originally I thought because it would clench a seat if he won the hand was a good reason to push but I like your reasoning. Thanks. GL in that sat. you're in now, I just missed it /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[KaneKungFu123]

edit: i read it wrong.

looks pretty marginal. probably just call, and see if an Ace or King comes on flop.

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
That is weird line for JJ and below.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? 3x has been standard for the last couple of hours here. He isn't gonna do anything differently w/ 21k in his stack.

[ QUOTE ]
otherwise i'd probably just fold cause you are on the bubble and will shoot yourself if you bubble again.

[/ QUOTE ]

ty dude!

[ QUOTE ]
That is weird line for JJ and below.

Looks like AK, KK, AA.

If he has been playing loose or goofy, i push, otherwise i'd probably just fold cause you are on the bubble and will shoot yourself if you bubble again.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would put him on exactly those 3 hands shorthanded with a 13bb stack? There are either 6 or 7 at the table, and even at a full table I'm not sure if I could put him on that tight of a range.

The more I think about it, the more I like exitonly's line, although its a close decision for me of doing that or going ahead and pushing all in and getting the lessor hands out of there and taking the bets+blinds. If it was a regular pay scale tourney, I'd be much more inclined to jam the pot right there, but since it's a satellite, I can see taking exit's approach here also.

[KaneKungFu123]

i read it wrong. i read it as $48,000, open commiting yeti.

(which is more interesting.. this hand is best to just call here and see if K or A comes... then if he has something like 77 you'll take his stack anyways, but dodge overs.)

[La Brujita]

didn't read the other responses but this is a tough one. I flat call and look to avoid overcards on flop.

Just read them, I agree with Kane, basically I am going to lose to KK or AA if no overcards come, going to try and avoid AK if an overcard comes and take the chance someone flops a set or catches up.

I can see a good argument for pushing as well, but I think it is slightly worse.

[gumpzilla]

I agree with Kane, I think I call here and happily get it on the flop if no K or A comes. Getting it in now seems a little high risk given that you're probably in pretty good position to secure a seat already, but calling seems like pretty good risk-reward.

[Yeti]

I just want to point out that you two are agreeing with exitonly.

Kane can't even read threads right lately.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
I just want to point out that you two are agreeing with exitonly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, my reading of the thread basically consisted of scrolling down quickly and skimming.

[adanthar]

I was watching this sat (didn't know it was you) and I believe, though I am not sure, that with 19 left you didn't have quite enough to fold in but were fairly close. Given that, I would push right here and take my chances because the last thing you want to do in that situation is see a flop.

If you had another 10K I think I would just fold.

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
I was watching this sat (didn't know it was you) and I believe, though I am not sure, that with 19 left you didn't have quite enough to fold in but were fairly close. Given that, I would push right here and take my chances because the last thing you want to do in that situation is see a flop.

If you had another 10K I think I would just fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tried to keep a low profile as I am bad and inexperienced enough without the added pressure of people sweating.

Thanks for the reply, I heard you were the man to ask re: sats.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
because the last thing you want to do in that situation is see a flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Care to explain that a bit? I trust you're right on this, but reasoning would help.

[HiatusOver]

Seems like a VERY EASY push to me...about to go watch football so I will explain later if I remember.

[Mr. Curious]

Don't you need to be concerned here about what your action will cause the BB to do?

He's got a huge stack at this point and if you just call, he'll be getting 3.5:1 to call and put you in a more difficult position if he puts you all-in.

Everyone's advice seems to be predicated on the it being heads up between you and the preflop raiser, but I don't see how that will be gauranteed when the BB is still to act and he will have the chance to possibly knock two players out.

btw - What happens if the button or the SB pushes all-in instead of the BB?

[adanthar]

Bad things happen on flops, such as having to fold the best hand and losing a very important 5K, or (aside from hitting a set) someone having something like 8-12 outs and willing to push the rest of their chips into a big pot. If you let KJs see a flop and he flops a draw plus two overs he thinks are good, you've made a really big mistake.

There is more to it than that, but that is where you start from.

[MLG]

I think its a push, but certainly not an easy one. What worries me about pushing is that the open raiser is short enough that he will likely stick the rest of his chips in with AK. Also, you don't include avg. stack, or how many short stacks there were. an abundence of shorties could sway this to a fold.

Also, im reasonably sure that if I was MP with that stack if I wanted to play a hand I'd open push.

[Simplistic]

a) folding, hero currently has 30BB with 6 people to be eliminated before money, I think hero has to play a few more hands before he can successfully fold into the money.

b) calling, hero calls and button/SB/BB either pushes or calls as well. if SB button or SB pushes it's a clear call and if BB pushes it's a fold? I guess i'm not too familiar with satellite strategy but my thinking is if you win this hand regardless of who is in it, you're guaranteed a seat. if you lose the hand to all but the BB you're still in it and fighting. what's +EV at this point?

c) pushing over the top or re-raising to half your stack. marginal aces now fold and button/SB/BB have a very difficult time calling/pushing with worse than AK/AA/KK.
this puts decision to MP who has to either call or fold.

in this situation I most likely push.

[adanthar]

Yeah, I'd like to add that I wasn't paying that much attention to railbirding and didn't really know anybody's tendencies, but if you thought there was an above average chance this was a trap, you could open fold, too.

Calling is bad, though.

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
What worries me about pushing is that the open raiser is short enough that he will likely stick the rest of his chips in with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

There had been lots of 3x, and lots of folding. Hardly any reraises or calls.

I really think he would do 3x here with AK. I think avg was 33k, but 21 was pretty healthy and in no danger yet.

[Bigdaddydvo]

QQ/KK/AA are all pushes here. I even fold AK.

Of all options, I think calling is worst.

Remember, in these satelite type situations where all the top prizes are the same, the "Gap" in the "Gap Concept" is MUCH MUCH wider. That's how we can fold JJ here, but QQ is a bit too good.

[CardSharpCook]

Pull the trigger. He'll probably fold. I mean think about it, is there any reason to believe he doesn't have JJ-22, A2s-AQs, AQo-A8o, KQ-KT, etc, etc, etc? AA/KK/AK make up a very small % of the hands that he open raises with, right? This is a SH table and he NEEDS to be stealing to keep up. Why are you so scared of monsters?

I don't get the Weak-Tightism that exists in Sats. Of course that may be why I've never won a sat.

[LearnedfromTV]

A question for adanthar and others: If he flips over xx and says "I'm going to call" (or equivalently, with these stacks you raise QQ, he goes allin and shows xx), do you call?

If xx =

1. Axo
2. Axs
3. AKo
4. AKs

My inclination is Yes, Yes, No, No. In general, when you are likely to walk to a seat by folding and making obvious steals, but not guaranteed, are you looking for 60/40 or better to call off a huge part of your stack? 65/35? Pair over pair?

How many chips (relative to average stack when the seats are given) would you have to have to make playing QQ here wrong, even if he flipped over AJ and you have to play for more than half your stack?

[Jason Strasser]

I think call, but im not sure, i really havent done my HW with regards to thinking about bubble situations on sats

[cferejohn]

You have a big hand and you have the guy who raised covered. I know this is a supersat, but you aren't *that* close to the money and I'd be surprised if you can just fold into it. I'd push, and frankly, I don't see how it is close.

[ QUOTE ]
What worries me about pushing is that the open raiser is short enough that he will likely stick the rest of his chips in with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wont he also stick all his chips in with hands that we dominate?

[Ulysses]

13 get seats. About 20 left.

I think Yeti is about 6th or 7th place at this point. There are a couple of big stacks, then the rest of the top 10 all have 35-45k. There are maybe 4 players after that w/ about 20k. Then about 4 players w/ 13-15k. And two real shorties.

[Yeti]

Thanks.

I remember I was 8th. I forgot to mention this this important piece of information.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
but you aren't *that* close to the money and I'd be surprised if you can just fold into it.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would you generally quantify these considerations?

[ChrisW]

It seems to me that good satellite play against aware opponents involves winning the race to the center, since hands which are big favorites against your move-in range may be forced to fold by tournament conditions. Basically, the only players who can profitably call a medium stack's move-in are desparate short stacks or medium stacks with AA (maybe KK if the original raiser is loose). Here, a medium stack is about 2/3 to qualify, maybe slightly more, so it would want to be 75% or so against the raiser's range to call off all (or most) of its chips.

Thus, a medium stack who opens for 1/4 of his chips here should be looking for a confrontation. How can he make this play with AK and let e.g. JJ beat him into the pot? He's now forced to surrender 1/4 of his chips or to take a 43% shot, an EV disaster either way. So, against an aware player it seems that you should open-fold QQ here.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but you aren't *that* close to the money and I'd be surprised if you can just fold into it.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would you generally quantify these considerations?

[/ QUOTE ]

well he has to outlast so many busts that he'll need to steal some money to maintain his realative stack.

My personal inclination is to push, because I think a medium amount of the time he mucks and your stack is that much healthier. Then again, my record in these things is rather subpar.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Then again, my record in these things is rather subpar.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mine too. I'm the king of bubbling sats, which is highly profitable (my hourly rate in sats is sky-high), but obviously not what I'm looking for. I've gotten pretty unlucky late, but I suspect that I've probably also started protecting a decent-sized stack a little too early.

Was kinda wondering if people had some rules of thumb re: "safe" amounts late in the game and what level of gamble to take at various levels of "safety."

[REL18]

I also thought this was a clear push but after your explanation i change my mind to push any non a k or 3 sooted connecting cards on the flop