View Full Version : Losing 27 blackjack hands in a row
RiverTheNuts
10-23-2005, 09:24 AM
I get the odds to be ..49^27
This just happened to me on party, and using between 5 and 25 dollar bets I just lost 400 dollars.... I got a few ties in there, like when I double my 11 to the dealers 6, get a 6, and the dealer flips an ace, this happened at least 4 or 5 times, which was better than the under card always being a 5 and the facecard always coming when I had 20
.49^27 = .00000043% or 1 in 231 million ... Sweet, is this the right calculation more or less, or do ties have something to do with it
BruceZ
10-23-2005, 11:44 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I get the odds to be ..49^27
This just happened to me on party, and using between 5 and 25 dollar bets I just lost 400 dollars.... I got a few ties in there, like when I double my 11 to the dealers 6, get a 6, and the dealer flips an ace, this happened at least 4 or 5 times, which was better than the under card always being a 5 and the facecard always coming when I had 20
.49^27 = .00000043% or 1 in 231 million ... Sweet, is this the right calculation more or less, or do ties have something to do with it
[/ QUOTE ]
Assuming you lose about 48%, win 43%, and push 9%, then you will lose about 52.7% of your non-pushed hands, so if you lost 27 non-pushed hands in a row, that would be 0.527^27 =~ 1 in 32 million non-pushed hands. If you make this 49% losers to 42% winners, this drops to 1 in 18 million non-pushed hands, so it's fairly sensitive to your exact win rate.
KenProspero
10-23-2005, 12:55 PM
It depends on how well you play. If you're not using basic strategy, the odds could be much lower.
If I tried, there's a fair chance I could lose 27 straight hands.
Which leads to an interesting problem.
Let's say someone bet you that you couldn't lose 27 hands in a row -- what odds would you need to take the bet.
Since I have the ability to lose any hand other than a natural black jack, I guess the question is what are the odds of going 27 straight hands without hitting that.
SheetWise
10-23-2005, 01:30 PM
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Since I have the ability to lose any hand other than a natural black jack ...
[/ QUOTE ]
I can teach you how to lose that one as well.
Losing 27 in a row is just that. Ties don't count for the streak. I don't know what the record amount of hands lost in a row in BJ is but 27 is probably a record. Either way why are you or anyone playing BJ at Party Poker???
RiverTheNuts
10-23-2005, 03:19 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Losing 27 in a row is just that. Ties don't count for the streak. I don't know what the record amount of hands lost in a row in BJ is but 27 is probably a record. Either way why are you or anyone playing BJ at Party Poker???
[/ QUOTE ]
Cause im a donkass tilter who was just trying to get to an even hundred number for a cashout, they must have sensed it coming, lol
PS - I wasnt looking at a chart, but I know the strategy... surrender a 16 to a face or an ace, double anything 8 or higher when it beats what the dealer shows... split 8's when dealer shows 8 or lower... hit on 12 with a 2, stand on 13, blah blah... most of the basic points I have memorized, I may have made a slight mistake by not splitting 9's against a dealer 8 or something, but nothing came up where I wasnt sure what to do (like splitting 6's or 7's to a dealer 7) ...Nothing major that would significantly effect winrate
pzhon
10-23-2005, 05:33 PM
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double anything 8 or higher when it beats what the dealer shows...
[/ QUOTE ]
That's wrong, sometimes by a lot. Never double down with an 8. (You lose about 0.27 bets by doubling down with 8 versus 7; 0.18 bets doubling 8 vs. 2.) Only double down with a 9 against 3-6.
[ QUOTE ]
split 8's when dealer shows 8 or lower...
[/ QUOTE ]
Always split 8s if the dealer has already checked for blackjack.
If you are going to play blackjack again, I think you want to take a look at a chart (http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack), and play on sites with a better rule set than Party. It'll be much cheaper. Of course, it is/was your money.
BruceZ
10-23-2005, 06:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
PS - I wasnt looking at a chart, but I know the strategy... surrender a 16 to a face or an ace, double anything 8 or higher when it beats what the dealer shows... split 8's when dealer shows 8 or lower... hit on 12 with a 2, stand on 13, blah blah... most of the basic points I have memorized, I may have made a slight mistake by not splitting 9's against a dealer 8 or something, but nothing came up where I wasnt sure what to do (like splitting 6's or 7's to a dealer 7) ...Nothing major that would significantly effect winrate
[/ QUOTE ]
OK, you don't know basic strategy. Either you have forgotten it, or you have learned it wrong from one of many sources of wrong basic strategy. This is very common. Some of what you stated are serious errors which will cost you a lot of money. Are you really doubling 9 vs. a dealer 8, or did you mean split??? Get the correct strategy for the game you are playing (8-deck, double on any 2 cards) from a reputable source, such as www.bjmath.com (http://www.bjmath.com), www.bj21.com (http://www.bj21.com) or www.rge21.com (http://www.rge21.com.).
For example, only double 9 against dealer 3-6. Never double hard 8 in a multi-deck game unless you are counting cards, but you can soft double A7 against dealer 3-6. Always split As and 8s, not just against dealer 8 or lower. If you are making these basic mistakes, you no doubt make many more when it comes to pair splitting and soft doubling.
BruceZ
10-23-2005, 06:15 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
double anything 8 or higher when it beats what the dealer shows...
[/ QUOTE ]
That's wrong, sometimes by a lot. Never double down with an 8. (You lose about 0.27 bets by doubling down with 8 versus 7; 0.18 bets doubling 8 vs. 2.) Only double down with a 9 against 3-6.
[ QUOTE ]
split 8's when dealer shows 8 or lower...
[/ QUOTE ]
Always split 8s if the dealer has already checked for blackjack.
If you are going to play blackjack again, I think you want to take a look at a chart (http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack), and play on sites with a better rule set than Party. It'll be much cheaper. Of course, it is/was your money.
[/ QUOTE ]
Ah, I see you beat me to it while I was having a heart attack and writing. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif
BTW, doubling 8 vs. 5 and 6 is correct in single deck play (which PP is not).
cardcounter0
10-23-2005, 07:28 PM
Hahahaha! You and every donkey at the blackjack table THINKS they know basic strategy.
Besides the obvious double downs and splitting, since Party Poker offers surrender, there are 4 plays you should be doing this:
16 vs 9, T, A and 15 vs T.
So on the 16 vs 9 and 15 vs T hands you could have only lost 1/2 and had a rather unremarkable 25 1/2 losses in a row.
This thread is so pointless, NOBODY regardless how great they think they are at playing BJ should be playing at PP.
imported_leader
10-24-2005, 02:25 AM
If this teaches you never to play BJ again, $400 was totally worth the cost.
Card08
10-24-2005, 08:26 AM
Good to see your bankroll management is going well after that post in the Psychology forum.
Justin A
10-24-2005, 02:54 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
double anything 8 or higher when it beats what the dealer shows...
[/ QUOTE ]
That's wrong, sometimes by a lot. Never double down with an 8. (You lose about 0.27 bets by doubling down with 8 versus 7; 0.18 bets doubling 8 vs. 2.) Only double down with a 9 against 3-6.
[ QUOTE ]
split 8's when dealer shows 8 or lower...
[/ QUOTE ]
Always split 8s if the dealer has already checked for blackjack.
If you are going to play blackjack again, I think you want to take a look at a chart (http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack), and play on sites with a better rule set than Party. It'll be much cheaper. Of course, it is/was your money.
[/ QUOTE ]
Ah, I see you beat me to it while I was having a heart attack and writing. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif
BTW, doubling 8 vs. 5 and 6 is correct in single deck play (which PP is not).
[/ QUOTE ]
Doesn't it also have to be against a house that stays on soft 17? I don't remember I haven't checked up on BS in a while.
BruceZ
10-24-2005, 09:37 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BTW, doubling 8 vs. 5 and 6 is correct in single deck play (which PP is not).
[/ QUOTE ]
Doesn't it also have to be against a house that stays on soft 17? I don't remember I haven't checked up on BS in a while.
[/ QUOTE ]
Basic strategy is to double regardless of whether the house stands on soft 17. A separate composition dependent strategy limits doubles to the exact cards (5,3) and (4,4). See The Theory of Blackjack by Peter Griffin, which has changes to basic strategy for rule variations and any number of decks.
Jerrod Ankenman
10-25-2005, 08:15 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I get the odds to be ..49^27
This just happened to me on party, and using between 5 and 25 dollar bets I just lost 400 dollars.... I got a few ties in there, like when I double my 11 to the dealers 6, get a 6, and the dealer flips an ace, this happened at least 4 or 5 times, which was better than the under card always being a 5 and the facecard always coming when I had 20
.49^27 = .00000043% or 1 in 231 million ... Sweet, is this the right calculation more or less, or do ties have something to do with it
[/ QUOTE ]
Eh, I did this playing BJ during the WSOP. Still won for the session. Bill Chen and Matt Hawrilenko witnessed it.
Jerrod
I just lost 10 in a row on partypoker. Decided to put 10$ in and play 1$ hands for fun. Lost 10 in a row.
ddubois
10-26-2005, 01:15 AM
You should have used the martingale system. Then, after your $268,435,456 bet, you would have gotten your dollar of profit.
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