JJ facing utg push

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t965)
BB (t510)
UTG (t895)
Hero (t1240)
CO (t985)
Button (t3405)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t895 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1240 (All-In)</font>,

UTG seems to know what he's doing and is probably pushing a fairly wide range.

edited to add: I should probably mention that I have pushed like 4 of the last 10 hands and am pretty sure that the big stack is just waiting to spite call me, which somewhat hurts my FE.

I don't quite get it. You think UTG is gonna be pushing a lot of hands, which you will most likely be ahead of. In addition, the BB is likely to be calling with all sorts of crap.

Where's the catch?

[Doc]

Ok, I am new to SNG's but here's my 2c:

The fact that you have someone who wants to make a spite call makes this even better. Since you have been pushing, this is a great hand for someone to try to look you up. I think the card advantage to your hand dramatically overcomes your loss of FE.

Sorry that you lost, but this looks like a great chance to double or triple up, and I am pushing every time.

Doc

The big stack will probably call with a pocket pair, AK or a hand already beating yours, and you're 53/45 over AKs, killing smaller pocket pairs and a big underdog to overpairs, the number of times you're behind preflop is miniscule. I'd push hoping to isolate but the big stack calling isn't that bad either, as if you win you're in great shape to win the whole tourney.

What buy-in is this tournament?

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG seems to know what he's doing and is probably pushing a fairly wide range.

[/ QUOTE ]

if UTG knows what he is doing, he is not pushing a wide range of hands from UTG with four stacks yet to act that have him covered. i am pretty sure this is a suicidal push without a decent holding. mind you, he may be doing it with a pocket pair smaller than yours. at any rate, i would also reraise allin here, but i don't expect UTG to turn over K6o. i hope he turns over 77.

[Hendricks433]

If he knows what hes doing... isnt he turning over AK, AQ or some PP? Probally not AA or KK. I hate JJ on bubble time. Do you want a coin flip here? I think he turns over big cards more than he turns over a low pp right?

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
If he knows what hes doing... isnt he turning over AK, AQ or some PP? Probally not AA or KK. I hate JJ on bubble time. Do you want a coin flip here? I think he turns over big cards more than he turns over a low pp right?

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, I think he turns over PP more often than high cards, and overall you are stronger than a coinflip against his range (all PP and AQ+). Something like 63%, I would guess. If someone would do the actual math, that would be great. I'm only guessing.

Nobody considers folding this? If I call I’m most likely out of the tournament 30-35% of the time. If I win there are still 5 players left and I’m not the chip leader. My position is improved but it’s not a lock for anything.

By wide range I meant ~(KT, Ax, any pocket)+.

Buy-in was 20+2.

I don’t think I was clear on my last note in the original post. I’m not expecting a big stack overcall too often; I more meant it for future considerations. He is two to my left which means that I will have to somewhat tighten up my pushing range in the future.

[valenzuela]

My chips are on the middle.

Did I mention any results?

Fwiw, I wrote my last response before the two preceding it showed up.

Even after thinking about it I’m not sure which move I prefer. I guess I just hate putting all (or most) of my money in at this stage of the tournament with no FE.

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody considers folding this? If I call I’m most likely out of the tournament 30-35% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ehhh....no. Look youre not even calling an all-in youre just pushing JJ with 8x the BB. You will most likely have 2000 chips by the end of the hand. You could have 500..though. What calling range do you put BB on?

[Melchiades]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody considers folding this?

[/ QUOTE ]
No.
[ QUOTE ]
If I call I’m most likely out of the tournament 30-35% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like those numbers.

UTG's range is wide here. It's the last hand were he has any real FE, and he knows it.

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody considers folding this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not me. With 895 left, blinds 150, and JJ, i need REALLY compelling reasons to fold.

[ QUOTE ]
If I call I’m most likely out of the tournament 30-35% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those aren't terrible odds.

[ QUOTE ]
If I win there are still 5 players left and I’m not the chip leader. My position is improved but it’s not a lock for anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but you've got the second biggest stack with two smaller stacks right behind you to abuse. Seems like a great situation to me.

[ QUOTE ]
By wide range I meant ~(KT, Ax, any pocket)+.

[/ QUOTE ]

seems about right to me.

[ QUOTE ]
Buy-in was 20+2.

I don’t think I was clear on my last note in the original post. I’m not expecting a big stack overcall too often; I more meant it for future considerations. He is two to my left which means that I will have to somewhat tighten up my pushing range in the future.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, you've got two people between you and him to abuse. It's not like he is immediately to you left after this hand. I think you are in a great position if you call this and win, and you will win around 65% of the time based on your range for UTG. You've only got 5 BB left - IMO you need to take this risk.

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG's range is wide here. It's the last hand were he has any real FE, and he knows it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really disagree. You think he pushes with QT here? K9? I doubt it, not from UTG.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nobody considers folding this? If I call I’m most likely out of the tournament 30-35% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ehhh....no. Look youre not even calling an all-in youre just pushing JJ with 8x the BB. You will most likely have 2000 chips by the end of the hand. You could have 500..though. What calling range do you put BB on?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have 345 if I lose, not 500. I think the difference is significant.
I didn't have any read on bb.

I have t1240 and there is only one person between me and the big stack. Meaning he's always a blind when I'm in position.

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
I have t1240 and there is only one person between me and the big stack. Meaning he's always a blind when I'm in position.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct, of course. But I still feel the position after the call is good enough to take the risk of busting.

[Doylestown]

I agree with Val, my chips are in the middle too.

You actually give another very important reason other than the actual hand which further supports this. The big stack will always be in the blind going forward. What would you be waiting for?

[tigerite]

I push this and it's not close.

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nobody considers folding this? If I call I’m most likely out of the tournament 30-35% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ehhh....no. Look youre not even calling an all-in youre just pushing JJ with 8x the BB. You will most likely have 2000 chips by the end of the hand. You could have 500..though. What calling range do you put BB on?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have 345 if I lose, not 500. I think the difference is significant.
I didn't have any read on bb.

[/ QUOTE ]

And youre with 2360 instead of 2000 so its basically the same thing.
I guarantee you that if you push in this spot you will make money in the long run.
Btw JJ is not the worst hand Im calling here with.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I have 345 if I lose, not 500. I think the difference is significant.
I didn't have any read on bb.

[/ QUOTE ]

And youre with 2360 instead of 2000 so its basically the same thing.
I guarantee you that if you push in this spot you will make money in the long run.
Btw JJ is not the worst hand Im calling here with.

[/ QUOTE ]

val,

while i of course agree with your later analysis "I guarantee you that if you push in this spot you will make money in the long run. Btw JJ is not the worst hand Im calling here with."

500 v 345 is not the same as 2000 v 2360 (eh, or maybe it's close, icm wise). chips worth more when you have fewer and all that jazz. also, 500 is just enough to make someone fold at 150 blinds, whereas 345 is not usually.

c

[Uppercut]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody considers folding this?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have 8BB left and you are seriously considering folding the 4th best starting hand in poker to a desperation all-in shove by an UTG short-stack that you have covered? Is that about right? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[TheNoodleMan]

Push, it is not even close.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
I push this and it's not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

And there is a lot of flawed logic in this thread from the OP. Unfortunately, I don't really have the time right now to type it out, but this is a very easy call.

[lastchance]

If the other guy is pushing 66+, AT+, this is a very easy call. There's almost no way you can have him on a range tighter than that.

You're 60+% to win this hand at least. I don't see how you can possibly pass that up.

Ok, I obviously seem to be missing something; maybe someone can clue me in.

*If my win expectancy vs. his range here is 60% it's an obvious call.

*If my win expectancy is 50% it's a clear fold.

At what point does it become gray area?

[lastchance]

53-54%, I'd think.

Also note, I said you were at least 60%. 66+, AT+ may be too tight of a range, because you're way ahead here.

[tigerite]

I didn't even bother with ICM, this is just a natural call. (Well, push to isolate).