Bottom set from blind fills on river...your move

[DrPublo]

Party 200NL 6max. Villain is pretty unremarkable, I haven't particularly noticed him which must mean he's been keeping to himself. I start with $305 and he has me covered by a bit.

Preflop:
One limper, villain limps on the button and I complete the SB with black 66. BB checks and we see a flop.

Flop ($8): 6 Q 7 rainbow

I lead for $6, only villain calls.

Turn ($22): [6 Q 7] J, putting two clubs up

I lead for $15, villain raises to $30, I call.

River ($72): [6 Q 7] J J

Hero...?

What range of hands do you put the villain on? How do we maximize in this spot? Is there a case for reraising the turn?

The Doc

[orange]

Hand ranges? Obviously 77,QQ,QJ(maybe). Throw in maybe a few other random hands (Q7,Q6,AQ,2 clubs,whatever). I think a bet of $55-$60 is good. I call a raise.

[The_Bends]

Got to say I'm utterly confused as to what the villian actually has. Either he has a hand strong enought to slowplay the flop, which means 77/67 with Q7 an outside possibility or he likes the turn card, which means he has QJ/Qxs (can he have TP and the flush draw? its not clear) with an outside chance he has AJ/KJ and is woeful.

So I think on balence I probably reraise the turn hoping to get paid off if the villian has some sort of two pair/pair+draw combo. I can't seriously consider set over set without a strong read so if its 77 then I'll take the knock. I actually think QJ is by far the most likey hand given the action.

Now there is no way I'd make that read in the heat of battle so I wouldn't be quite as worried by the river as I currently am. Anyway can't be scared of monsters, I'd raise $50. If he pushed I might lay it down

[ QUOTE ]
Party 200NL 6max. Villain is pretty unremarkable, I haven't particularly noticed him which must mean he's been keeping to himself. I start with $305 and he has me covered by a bit.

Preflop:
One limper, villain limps on the button and I complete the SB with black 66. BB checks and we see a flop.

Flop ($8): 6 Q 7 rainbow

I lead for $6, only villain calls.

Turn ($22): [6 Q 7] J, putting two clubs up

I lead for $15, villain raises to $30, I call.

River ($72): [6 Q 7] J J

Hero...?

What range of hands do you put the villain on? How do we maximize in this spot? Is there a case for reraising the turn?

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say most likely AQ or Q7. Those hands are usually strong enough for a delayed reraise, and raising your flop bet would drive you out if you had tpgk/mk. And because of this read I would reraise the turn. QJ is also possible, so reraise stands. Your biggest worry at this point would be 77, and a huge rr after yours would basically be his course of action I think.

In your situation I'd check because you have simply too little information. The problem is: what does he put you on. Could you possibly represent QQ's to stop him from betting out huge? His problem is, if he represents J's (if he has them or not), you won't call such a bet on the river.

Sooo, yes, I think I would slow down. And he probably will too.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]

So I think on balence I probably reraise the turn hoping to get paid off if the villian has some sort of two pair/pair+draw combo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't this let hands like AQ and QJ off the hook too easily?

The Doc

[DrPublo]

Good responses so far...I guess I didn't really include enough information to make the hand interesting.

Anyway, I decided that a river c/r would be the best move because I couldn't see him checking behind with the running jacks coming off. To whoever suggested it, no, you couldn't have TP + the turned flush draw.

I check, and villain bets $125 (into $72!!!). Now what.

The Doc

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there a case for reraising the turn?


[/ QUOTE ]
A damn good one, IMO.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Call.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is there a case for reraising the turn?


[/ QUOTE ]
A damn good one, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. He's not running a delayed bluff on a board of 6Q7J with two clubs. He has a hand here, of some sort, and I don't want to give him reason to dump QJ, 67, or whatever. Hell he could have bullets for all I know.

I think the line of betting flop, and then betting/3-betting the turn screams at LEAST two pair (probably better than bottom 2) and lets him get rid of the bottom end of his hand range too easily.

The Doc

[DrPublo]

What worse hands make a $125 value bet? What missed hands bluff for almost twice the pot (when the 125 isn't even close to an all in)?

The Doc

[swolfe]

QJ seems likely from the betting. i think i'd block the river...i want to get value from everything that would call a bet, but would check behind if i checked. the only problem with a blocker is if you think he'd raise the river with just a naked J...but it seems unlikely that he'd raise the turn with one.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
Call.

[/ QUOTE ]
yep. if i check the river, i'm calling the bet.

[soah]

Ugly situation. The raise on the turn from this type of player could easily be the "pre-emptive blocking bet in position" with top pair, hoping to get a free showdown on most rivers. But it could also be from hands which beat you on the river... as in, most of the hands which will bet if you check to them. Maybe I'm just giving the guy too much credit. But if your opponent is thinking at all along those lines, going for a river checkraise would be a disaster. He shows down his losers for free and takes your stack with better boats. I think I'd prefer leading the river. Any hand he was planning to bet with is not going to fold when you lead into him.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugly situation. The raise on the turn from this type of player could easily be the "pre-emptive blocking bet in position" with top pair, hoping to get a free showdown on most rivers. But it could also be from hands which beat you on the river... as in, most of the hands which will bet if you check to them. Maybe I'm just giving the guy too much credit. But if your opponent is thinking at all along those lines, going for a river checkraise would be a disaster. He shows down his losers for free and takes your stack with better boats. I think I'd prefer leading the river. Any hand he was planning to bet with is not going to fold when you lead into him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, but are you sure he never bets a worse hand on the river when I check to him?

The Doc

[soah]

But wouldn't he also call a bet on the end with those hands? It's not like there are potential bluffing hands he could have.

And what range of hands do you expect him to call a river checkraise with in a pot of this size? Your hand is hardly better than AA at this point... you wouldn't checkraise the river with AA, would you?

[Staycool]

Based on this action, button limp and the turn reraise, I think QJ is villain's most likely holding. 77 is possible, as is badly played 67s. So the river may have made you a second best hand. (In response to some other posters, IMO you will see QQ and JJ less than 1% of the time.) Do you really think turn bet lets him off his 2pair type hands? If so, just call. I probably check-call the river overbet, without a read one way or the other.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
Your hand is hardly better than AA at this point... you wouldn't checkraise the river with AA, would you?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a ridiculous statement.

The Doc

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think turn bet lets him off his 2pair type hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a turn bet/3-bet lets him muck 67 or Q6 or Q7. Remember, this is an unraised pot and 200nl players love to limp with absolute garbage.

The Doc

[TheWorstPlayer]

He's not folding any hand he min-raises here. Even if it is just top pair. Just 3-bet the turn and try to get all-in on the river.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your hand is hardly better than AA at this point... you wouldn't checkraise the river with AA, would you?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a ridiculous statement.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it ridiculous because you would checkraise the river with AA, because that's such a stupid idea that I shouldn't even put it in print, or because there is a big difference in strength between AA and 66 on that board?

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your hand is hardly better than AA at this point... you wouldn't checkraise the river with AA, would you?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a ridiculous statement.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it ridiculous because you would checkraise the river with AA, because that's such a stupid idea that I shouldn't even put it in print, or because there is a big difference in strength between AA and 66 on that board?

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason the statement is ridiculous is had I held AA in this hand, the entire hand plays out differently. I can't say what I would do with AA in this spot beause it wouldn't have gotten to this point. Assessing the relative values of AA and 66 on the river here is meaningless. Yes they both beat all one pair hands, and yes they both lose to all boats. But that doesn't mean you can compare them.

The Doc

[xorbie]

There is definitely a case for raising the turn, that river sucks though. I would probably bet half pot and possibly fold to a raise.

[Inevitable]

Any stats? I don't know how people can put him on a hand given "unremarkable." Does keep to himself mean VPIP under 20?

[mayesie]

I'm probably re-raising the turn to about 90-100 after the villain's 30.00 mini-raise (praying for a push, though a call is also fine). Villain is likely holding either QJ for 2-pair, or a flush draw that he backed into (combined w/ a pair). I believe you maximize your profit by getting as much money in as possible on 4th street. Unless he improves on the river (thus probably beating you), you're not likely to make alot of money. Put his stack in jeopardy on the turn & hope he's willing to go all the way with you.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
There is definitely a case for raising the turn, that river sucks though. I would probably bet half pot and possibly fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I kind of like this line but if he min-raises I have to call. Example: I can't bet 50 and fold for 50 more getting 4.5:1.

In the end I wound up folding. Felt pretty good about it at the time. If I had 77 I think I have to call though, right?

The Doc

[j0wlev]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

So I think on balence I probably reraise the turn hoping to get paid off if the villian has some sort of two pair/pair+draw combo.

[/ QUOTE ]




Doesn't this let hands like AQ and QJ off the hook too easily?

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

QJ beats us.

You cant rule out KT of clubs.

Folding to what bet?

[elus2]

build a v. big pot on the turn. you want him to make bigger mistakes on the river. unremarkable villains have a habit of min raising improved turns or flopped two pairs. i'd estimate that your reraise gets a call/another raise 80%+ of the time here. my range for him is 2p+ (QJ, Q7, Q6, 76, 77) 75% of the time, a pair+fd type of hand, misplayed overpair, tp?k hands the rest of the time. the river will be another interesting street with 200 left to play and 220 in the pot.