Distributions

Hey, guys, I was wondering if some of you could lend some thoughts on my past month of play. In the past 30 days, I've played in 52 SNGs - mostly $10+1 on UB, with a few $20+2 and $30+3. Here is the breakdown for finishes. I am mostly concerned about the 4th place finishes since most of the SNGs pay 3 spots. Can you draw any conclusions about my play just from these numbers?

1st - 14 (27%)
2nd - 12 (23%)
3rd - 6 (12%)
4th - 9 (17%)
other - 11 (~22%)

I am trying to improve my bubble game and those 4th place numbers seem to be the biggest weak spot. After that, I see the 2nd place finishes as very weak as more should be 1st since I'm getting to heads up.

Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

[tom441lbk]

yo, check out the faq, it will help out alot

edit: stickied at top of forum

Roger that. Thanks. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Alright, I checked out the FAQ but I'm still looking for some specific thoughts about my bubble play.

Currently, it seems like when I bust out 4th, I'm getting to that position about average with the other low-ish stack. I try to stay aggressive, raising my good aces and playing position but fall short when he either doubles or I run into something big with a decent raising hand from late position.

Ideas? I apologize in advance if I'm asking a question that is either too hard to answer given the information I've provided or referenced elsewhere.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
I've played in 52 SNGs

[/ QUOTE ]
This is why no one can answer your question.

So I should wait until about 5 to 10 times more than that, right?

Thanks.

[splashpot]

Try 50-100 times that.

Okay, I'll come back when I have between 2500 and 5000 SNGs under my belt.

I guess until then it's impossible to suggest anything.

Thanks.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I'll come back when I have between 2500 and 5000 SNGs under my belt.

I guess until then it's impossible to suggest anything.

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not trying to be discouraging, but until you have that many, you can't tell anything from the numbers by themselves. If you want to see if your bubble play is flawed, post hands that you aren't sure of.

No, I totally understand. I wasn't being sarcastic at all.

Just holding on to some hope that perhaps there was a way to infer something. But I completely see why we need a bigger sample.

I'm going to set a goal and try to reach a much greater sample for next month and then compare my current stats with those. Who knows...maybe something will show itself then.

Thanks again.

[Freudian]

You will have an idea after 500. You will have a better idea after 1000. After 10000 you can be pretty confident in your numbers.

It is not healthy to focus too much on these things anyway. Focus on making good decisions and ITM/ROI/finish distribution will take care of itself.

[Deuce2High]

Read the FAQ

As mentioned previously, I did that. Thank you.

[Deuce2High]

Alright. And you should play around 500 or so to get a rough sample and start self-evaluating That isn't exactly accurate by any means, but you have to start somewhere, right?

I think it would be rediculous to play over 1000 SnGs without actually doing any analyzing on my own statistics.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it would be rediculous to play over 1000 SnGs without actually doing any analyzing on my own statistics.

[/ QUOTE ]
Analyzing statistics does very little. Analyzing hands is what matters.

[Deuce2High]

[/ QUOTE ]
Analyzing hands is what matters.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't know analyzing hands did anything for my game at all. Wow, thanks for the advice there, captain obvious.

[ QUOTE ]
Analyzing statistics does very little.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make me cry in real life.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, thanks for the advice there, captain obvious

[/ QUOTE ]
You're the one telling him to read the FAQ after someone else already did and the OP said he read it.

And as for stats, I'm talking specifically talking about these distribution numbers. WTF is looking at these distribution numbers going to do even after 1000 games. He'll know that he has a 38% ITM? Except he won't even know that. 1000 isn't enough. How does this help his game in the slightest?

[ QUOTE ]
You make me cry in real life

[/ QUOTE ]
I want proof.

[Uppercut]

[ QUOTE ]
1st - 14 (27%)
2nd - 12 (23%)
3rd - 6 (12%)
4th - 9 (17%)
other - 11 (~22%)

[/ QUOTE ]

You have an ITM of 62% and you are worried about your 4th place finishes? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

PS Your sample size is just a bit too small /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

That's what I was wondering. I mean, I'd hate to play 1,000 or so SNGs and then evaluate tendencies only to realize that there is something seriously wrong.

I'm just trying to see if there is anything I can learn right now, even in the short term, from my numbers. I do realize now that this is far too small a sample to really deduce anything.

I guess I am more curious about how to get my 4th place finishes down and more ITM (obviously).

So thanks very much to everyone so far. I really appreciate the input.

[Nick M]

a lot of people have there view on distribution. personally i like yours. You hear a lot of people say to gamble in third to play for first. I don't like that too much. I like being aggressive with 4 or 5 players left, steal and build chips to get 1st or 2nd. My thirds are very low, but my firsts are insane. I don't like squeeking into the money and then start gambling. I think you reduce your fold equity that way. You're more likely to get called when you're in the money. So as for me, i think your playing well.

I appreciate that post, Nick.

I had been doing a lot of reading around here that suggested the exact things you were talking about in the beginning of your post - more gambling for 1st once ITM is secured.

For some reason, I just can't get my head around that all the way. I do understand the logic but I'm having a hard time adjusting my style.

[Doylestown]

Smellkid I also see nothing wrong with your distribution (and yes I agree with the obvious that your sample size is very small).

Bottom line, you are going to finish 4th sometimes. It's OK. I also agree that you could post some of your hand histories if you want more insightful comments that would actually deal with your game play which is really what matters.

[Nick M]

there is one thing i know for sure...if you're winning and you're comfortable playing a certain way, don't change. Don't change cause you see people explaining a style unlike yours. There is a lot of ways to win.

I have a question for you...are you playing 1 table at a time or more?

Nick, thanks for that bit of advice. It's a good thought.

In response to your question, I am usually playing 2 tables at once, but occassionally play 3. I don't ever play more than 3 because I tend to get overwhelmed and my play suffers.