Here's a weird one [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

Ghazban

10-22-2005, 06:57 PM

Villain is a regular that I have about 1400 hands with. He's predictable for the most part and his stats are 27/6.4/4.7. Comment on all streets

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero ($306.60)
SB ($254.10)
BB ($250)
UTG ($203.60)
MP ($436.13)
CO ($620.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
2 folds, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2, SB (poster) raises to $5, 1 fold, CO calls $4, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($20) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB bets $5, CO folds, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($30) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $20, SB calls $20.

River: ($70) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $65

orange

10-22-2005, 07:10 PM

If villan is a big donk, you could try and overbet the pot, and push.

Obviously raising the flop has little merit, as it is paired. I like your play on all streets. I would be torn between pushing river/potting it.

10-22-2005, 07:18 PM

Awsome. Tell me he had an A high flush and pushed you!

Ghazban

10-22-2005, 07:19 PM

I think the real problem is that it is unlikely villain has a jack and therefore won't be calling anything. I seriously considered making a small bet he could talk himself into calling with TT or AK but felt it was more +EV to bet bigger and hope he talks himself into calling anyway. I considered the push and, if I thought he might have a jack, I would've done it for sure.

trevor

10-22-2005, 07:19 PM

I think this is fairly standard. Depending on your read you could push, but I like the PSB on the river.

xorbie

10-22-2005, 07:28 PM

I'd bet $40 max. His line looks a hell of a lot like AK/images/graemlins/heart.gif or something in that range. If he does have a super slowplayed QQ or J, he'll raise you anyway, so you're looking to get value out of his other hands here.

Hattifnatt

10-22-2005, 07:30 PM

I bet something like 3/4 pot here on the river.

With larger stacks I push hoping he has a J or QQ.

Go_Blue88

10-22-2005, 07:30 PM

First, I don't understand his small flop bet.

I'm definitely not putting him on a Jack here. I think he has either a queen or a pocket pair. I don't know how he views you, but unless he views you as LAG I can't see him calling this river.

I'd probably bet like 30 because he'd raise me anyways if he has a jack and talk himself into calling with the rest of his hand range.

TheWorstPlayer

10-22-2005, 07:36 PM

Weird indeed. I like the river value bet but you obviously have to fold to a c/r.

Edit: I can't read. Bet more on the river. I probably push.

Edit again: Just to clarify, I didn't see the river card properly and thought it was 8/images/graemlins/club.gif. In that case, I would still like a value bet here on the river.

Riposte

10-22-2005, 07:49 PM

What do you estimate your equity is on the flop with a paired board like that? I guess you thought it wasn't enough to warrant a flop raise?

Ghazban

10-22-2005, 07:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What do you estimate your equity is on the flop with a paired board like that? I guess you thought it wasn't enough to warrant a flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't raise the flop because I didn't want to get reraised and not know if I was drawing to 2 outs or if I was up against trips or what. An OESFD is a good hand but a paired board can wreck 13/15 of your outs. I figured I'd keep the pot small and see what happened if I hit.

pokerjoker

10-22-2005, 07:58 PM

if u put him on a flush or a Q then bet a bet $40 on river...he is probably scared u have the FH and I doubt he would call a PSB. If you put him on the jack then push. I don't know anyone who will fold a high FH to to a straightflush.

Godfather80

10-22-2005, 08:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is a regular that I have about 1400 hands with. He's predictable for the most part and his stats are 27/6.4/4.7. Comment on all streets

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero ($306.60)
SB ($254.10)
BB ($250)
UTG ($203.60)
MP ($436.13)
CO ($620.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
2 folds, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2, SB (poster) raises to $5, 1 fold, CO calls $4, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($20) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB bets $5, CO folds, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($30) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $20, SB calls $20.

River: ($70) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $65

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't this all depend on what Villain's super weak lead on the flop meant? If you have 1400 hands with this guy, you must know in what situations he'll make that lame lead bet.

Ghazban

10-22-2005, 08:24 PM

I don't recall him doing that before, nor do I have any notes about it. At the time, I took it to mean either a monster or something that wanted to see the turn for cheap. When he check/called the turn, I was not sure what that meant. A hand like TT/99 seems possible (could be the best hand, could improve by hitting the gutshot); maybe something like AT (though I doubt he raises that preflop in this situation). AKs for the bigger flush draw seems possible, too. He's seen me bet draws before so he could believe TT/99 is ahead on the turn.

Godfather80

10-22-2005, 08:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't recall him doing that before, nor do I have any notes about it. At the time, I took it to mean either a monster or something that wanted to see the turn for cheap. When he check/called the turn, I was not sure what that meant. A hand like TT/99 seems possible (could be the best hand, could improve by hitting the gutshot); maybe something like AT (though I doubt he raises that preflop in this situation). AKs for the bigger flush draw seems possible, too. He's seen me bet draws before so he could believe TT/99 is ahead on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case I'd bet smaller on the river, so that TT/99 could call and AKs might get frisky and raise. But, I'm a fool, so take that for what it's worth.

Ghazban

10-22-2005, 08:50 PM

The nut flush raises a double paired board roughly never; however, it might call a PSB. TT/99 can't beat anything any more (pairing any piece of the board beats them, the flush got there). That doesn't mean my river bet size was optimal; that's just my thinking. He folded pretty quickly so I doubt he had AKs and I'm positive he didn't have any kind of jack or pocket queens.