A4s - Raise turn for value?

I think the turn play here is pretty interesting. After reviewing it, I've come up with good arguments for both calling and raising, and am leaning toward raising.

My main issue with raising is the possibility of BB 3-betting and knocking the remaining players out. Though, my read is based on a tiny sample and I have no concrete read on him.


Reads
BB - 40/0/1.3 after only 50 hands.

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5.00 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (9.00 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 13.00 BB.

[sean c]

With the paired board and the bb betting i don't think you have the equity to value raise here. Your ace outs are nowhere near clean your gut shot outs are not clean. You need 13.5 outs to have an equity edge here and i just can't get there.

I think my double belly buster outs are pretty clean. While I may chop some of the time, I think they're worth at least 4.5 outs. Plus the flush outs and a heavily discounted A and I think we have about 13-14 outs. Here's my take on the outs:

9 (for flush) + 4.5 (for double gut) + 1 (for A) - 1 (when I lose to a full house)
= 13.5 outs

[sean c]

Wow dream nice job you count outs better than i do /images/graemlins/blush.gif. I missed the double gutter and have always been a maroon at discounting outs correctly. Maybe someone else will chime in.

Don't sweat it, they're very easy to overlook /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[W. Deranged]

A raise for value is very, very thin. I would advice against it basically for the following reasons:

1. If BB three-bets and you lose some customers, you've turned a "raise for value" situation into a "spewing chips on a draw" situation. When others fold you no longer have an equity edge.

2. So of your outs are well concealed and it will be VERY nice to have BB potentially betting into you on the river and trapping the players in between for multiple bets. You don't want to be the one expected to be the river .

3. You're hand doesn't really have showdown value of any major variety. If your hand might win a showdown unimproved that would encourage me to raise more often.