ASU-10@Stanford POTW#8 + PennSt-18@Illini and a few others

[MyTurn2Raise]

Sorry, I'm late on this one. I was following the Cards and had to make the trip back to the STL for the end of the series. I come bearing lots of recommendations, but I want to reinforce what at least 3 posters earlier in the week said and make Arizona State -10 @ Stanford my POTW. I've been on ASU twice and they backed me up both times.

Stanford's defense, while good in it's last two outings, will be scorched by the Sun Devils offense. The ASU offense slumped the last game, but will take it out on a Stanford D that gives up over 450 ypg. Give Dirk 2 weeks to put together a gameplan, Keller some time to heal, and the team some time to regain focus, and you'll see the Sun Devils explode for 600+ yards and 40+ points.

The Arizona State D got lit up in the last two games against SC and the Ducks. Don't expect Stanford to do the same. Outside of the 41 that Stanford put up against Navy, they've scored 17, 20, 24, and 20 against UC-Davis, Oregon, WAZU, and Zona respectively. Expect the same kind of near 20 point performance against the Sun Devils whose defense is comparable to the earlier teams mentioned (Probably, slightly better).

Conclusion, 41-24 in favor of the Sun Devils

POTW #8 is Arizona State -8 @ Stanford

FYI-I'm 9-4 YTD on my 2+2 recommendations. My POTW is 5-2
South Florida is a distant memory from last week

[MyTurn2Raise]

My feeling in Champaign pick is next.

Take Penn ST -18 @ Illinois
A late, chilly night in Champaign for all 50,000 in attendence(LOL). Fortunately, the White Sox game will only take away about 78 of their fans. (That is a dig at the number of Sox fans, who are less popular in Illinois than the Cubs, Cards, and the Kane County Cougars.)

Even in good times, Illinois absolutely sucks against Penn St. Sure, the Illini got lucky on the Sugar Bowl run in 2001 (Wow, seems like that was further in the past) and played Penn St very well in the 1994 35-31 loss that was one of, if not the greatest, game I've seen. Though those games standout, the ones that do not are the absolute thumpings Penn St has put on the Illini.

The Illini D is awful. God awful. There is no kind way to put it. Let's face it, Indiana scorched the D. Even without Derek Williams, the Nittany Lions will have more than enough speed to keep the Illinois secondary running in circles, enough power to bulldoze the line, and enough QB runs to drive the Illini defense into helplessness. Expect the Lions to go for over 500 yards and put up somewhere between 35 and 45.

The Illinois offense is not very good. The Penn St D is damn good. The only bright spot for the Illini is they run a scheme similar to Northwestern, which had big time success against JoePa's group. However, the Illinois line is considerably worse and the QB does not come close to Basanez. The Illini strength, its running backs, are not getting enough touches and won't be able to do anything even if they got enough against that Penn St. front. Furthermore, the Illini O has been unable to stretch out any D this season and the sight of the Penn St D creeping up to the line makes me cringe. Penn St has held Illinois to 15ppg in their previous big ten matchups. That won't change much.

Final Score PSU 37 Illini 13...a wonderful homecoming.

FYI-I'm 3-3 on my Illini picks this year.
BTW-I'm an Illinois alum who lives in Champaign, follows their teams, and know a few of the players. Thus, I have a need to opine.

[MyTurn2Raise]

I'm breaking tradition and recommending a few more games this week, because the lines look so juicy to me and I'm laying multiple units on the games.

I absolutely love Northwestern +12 1/2 @ Michigan St

What does Northwestern have to do to get some respect? So far, they have looked as good as any big ten team in conference play. They are only a 4th and 15 conversion by Penn St away from a 3-0 start to conference. They outscored the Badgers 51-48 and then took it to Purdue on the road 34-29. Basanez is awesome. The N'Western offense is awesome and fun to watch. They put up over 500 ypg.

Then again, so does the Spartan offense. Drew Stanton looks great. The Northwestern D is ugly. Expect over 1000 yards in this game and a flash back to the Pac10 shootouts of a few years prior.

I handicapped this game at MSU -5, so I see a ton of value here. I'm predicting a 37-32 final. The Cats offense will hang.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Sticking in the Big10, I also love Michigan +3 @ Iowa

Let's not forget Michigan is the most talented team in the big10 (along with Ohio St. before you Buckeyes flame me). They've had a few meltdowns with ND, Wisky, and Minny, but Hart is back and Henne looks better. The Michigan of last week reminded me of the Michigan of last year. That team, beat a better Iowa team 30-17.

Don't get caught up in Iowa's recent games against tweetle dee, tweetle dumb, and tweetle dumber (Illinois, Purdue, and Indiana). Remember the Iowa against Iowa St and Ohio St. Expect to see that Iowa again. The Michigan line will pwn them on both sides of the ball. The Iowa D will characteristically sit back and hope for the other team to make mistakes. The Michigan O is too good for that and will methodically march down the field. The Michigan D will hold the Hawkeyes down. The Jerkeyes are nowhere near the Wisky and Minny offense.

I see Michigan 27 Iowa 13

BTW-I hate both schools

I like the Michigan side here too. Iowa has been scary at home ATS under Ferentz so I'm not just crazy about this play, but I do think Michigan is the solid value here.

[bugstud]

looks like someone missed a monster ML payoff

[MyTurn2Raise]

Happy day...damn did I miss on ASU: I guess they did pack in the season.

Michigan winning without Hart was nice. I like Ferentz playing for the field goal to end regulation.

Michigan State quit this year like they do every year.

Is Illinois playing with 11 guys on defense?

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]

Is Illinois playing with 11 guys on defense?

[/ QUOTE ]


seemed more like about 8

[lastsamurai]

VNH!
I got robbed on BAMA