river fold

I have Aks and raise after very weak limper, I get 3bet by a slightly agro TAG in SB 20/13/2.12 weak limper calls and I cap.

Flop comes AQ9 2 suited none of mine. TAG bets we both call.

Turn comes an Ace TAG bets we both call. (I probably should have raised here).

River comes J TAG checks weak limper checks I bet TAG checkraises??? I fold.

My thinking is that he surely knows that I have either KK or AK? right and that I probably wouldnt fold AK but if I had KK its unlikely that he'd have a hand that doesnt beat me here.

He also knows that I'd value bet these hands.

Argh what do you guys think?

[CardSharpCook]

heh, well, I'd bet dollars to donunts that you've lost this hand, but just how sure are you? I call this down. Maybe he hit the donk button on his computer.

[scott8]

Does that mean that you bet dollars and if you win you get donuts??

Or are you betting both the dollar and the donut?

So confusing.

[ALL1N]

If you're not willing to raise turn (regardless of the second A), raise the flop and let SB 3-bet his AK to protect both of you.

edit-actually I think you played it fine.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
Does that mean that you bet dollars and if you win you get donuts??

Or are you betting both the dollar and the donut?

So confusing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Every donut you're willing to put up, I'll match it with a dollar. That's how confident I am!

[flawless_victory]

i think you played this hand pretty damn good.

[flawless_victory]

BTW/ that river fold is sick... really nice laydown. im serious.

[mc1023]

the way this hand played out, I think the river fold is okay.

but you should've raised the flop here and see where your at, can't instantly just assume he has AQ or QQ. Pop him once and find out where your at.

there is no way in hell you made this fold. period.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
My thinking is that he surely knows that I have either KK or AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to work on your, what is it called, reverse hand reading? You capped preflop but then just called the flop and just called the turn. Why would he think you have AK?

What does he have? Hmmm... he could be on a move w/ TT, figuring that you don't obviously don't have a strong hand from your turn play and that he can take this big pot down with a raise. He could have AK. Really, I'm just making things up though, because I don't know what he could possibly hold to play this way. It's just an unusual spot for a checkraise.

You have played your hand very deceptively. Don't fold.

-Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you played this hand pretty damn good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi flawless,

What do you put the SB on? If he is full, why would he risk having KK check through the river, especially since, if he succeeds and gets to check-raise, he's going to force the other caller to have to call 2 cold? Seems like a pretty bizarre play to me.

-Eric

[Pog0]

I bet this river 100% of the time, I probably call the c/r 100% of the time as well. Can't be a major leak if it is one.

I don't understand why TAG wouldn't lead this river with AK or better. He's giving KK a free showdown.

[flawless_victory]

i abree that the BBs play ios a bit wierd, but i think he has QQ/AQ here almost every time... he is frustrated noone will let him threebet, so now he goes for the CR.
i just dont see a bluff here... thats a helluva laydown... id prob pay it off like a donkey.

[Steve Giufre]

I really like a call here. I think Elindauer kinda hit the nail on the head, I dont think he puts you on AK given the way you played the turn. Also do you know if this guy has a notes file, if he knows you are solid, if he thinks you are weak, etc? He might just take you for the average donk, and be thinking "hey I have three aces with a king and that a good hand." I guess there is a small chance he is on a move, but I kinda doubt it, since I think most hands he would three bet with that didnt contain an ace he would just check call, plus that would seem like an unlikely spot for a winning player to try checkraise bluff since he should expect you to call down. I think the river was a small mistake, you might chop enough for calling to be right. IMO is usually better to call down in these spots on the net.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
heh, well, I'd bet dollars to donunts that you've lost this hand...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it will be a shame when inflation renders this expression meaningless...

[helpmeout]

Dont forget the weakplayer between us.

When he checkraises the river the only other hand he could have is KJs for the busted flushdraw but even then I'd doubt he'd think that I'd fold what I'm representing. And if thinks I would then he deserves the pot.

What else would a TAG call with after capping preflop on that board? its not going to be a medium PP, I'm not capping an SB raise with AQ nor would many TAGs. So its down to AK AA KK QQ JJ TT maybe 99 only the first 4 would continue past the flop with KK still being a pretty loose call. On the turn by not raising I do not have QQ or AA so that leaves AK or KK.

When he checks the river he obviously knows that I am going to valuebet the river cos what Ace is going to check.