AK Sexy

Villian is 22/10/.7 over 70 hands

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB folds.

River: (7.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

[thesharpie]

No.

[Buck_65]

[ QUOTE ]
No.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, what makes you think villain will bet here? What makes you think villain specifically has a hand worthy of betting and calling a check-raise? I don't like it.

[blackize]

Eww god. Why are you going for a checkraise against someone with an aggression of .7?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, what makes you think villain will bet here? What makes you think villain specifically has a hand worthy of betting and calling a check-raise? I don't like it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was anticipating these comments and this is a very rare, possibly tilt-induced, check on the river. I most likely will agree with you and chalk this one up to tilt, but here are some thoughts to consider:

Preflop: A coldcall from a tight, but not aggressive (at least Postflop) player. I think we can nearly eliminate QQ and possibly JJ from his hands. A coldcall with 99 is unlikely as well.

Possible calling hands for villian on the flop:
1) QQ - Likely eliminated with his PF call
2) JJ - Likely eliminated, but not as likely as QQ...could be a hand here
3)Flush draw, likely to the A or K
4) QJ (didn't think of this one when I was playing, but this is likely)
5) 99 or lower pocket pair. I think this guy folds these here though

Now, onto the river decision. I figured if this guy was a thinking player, he would do the following:

1) Obviously, fold a missed flush draw...gaining me no value in a bet
2) Likely fold his weaker pairs
3) Bet a pair of Ace's at least some percentage of the time

I think this player most likely has a flush draw on this hand at the river and my bet gains nothing. I would have thought an Ace would have raised somewhere on the flop. By me checking, it looks like I had a hand such as 99, QQ, jj, etc. and this player will probably bet an Ace on the river for value.

I'd like to hear some more comments on this as I'm not 100% convinced a standard bet is in order here given the likely holdings of the opponent and the way he played his hand. I'd like to hear some hand ranges that would call here but not bet. I guess it really depends on how often he's on a flush draw here.

Lozing

[partygirluk]

FWIW, from experience players never never never fold to a river check raise.

[ QUOTE ]
Eww god. Why are you going for a checkraise against someone with an aggression of .7?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
possibly tilt induced

[/ QUOTE ]

I just typed this in my reply. I figured i'd say this before others did.

Lozing

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, from experience players never never never fold to a river check raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, agreed...but how are you applying this here?

[partygirluk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, from experience players never never never fold to a river check raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, agreed...but how are you applying this here?

[/ QUOTE ]

One of your replies said "what is he going to bet with AND call the river c/r". I am not at all worried about the guy bet/folding the river. That should not be a factor in your river decision at 3/6.

[blackize]

I dont think that he is betting often enough on the river to go for a check raise. His aggression is extremely low. His VPIP is low, but not too tight. I think he is likely to check behind everything but JQ, TT, and AA. He probably raises a strong ace or aces preflop so I think we can eliminate that.

You say JJ and QQ are unlikely, and I agree. Lower pocket pairs are folding to a bet but are not betting out.

The hands that he bets on the river are ones that he does not hold anywhere near frequently enough to go for a checkraise.

[ QUOTE ]
The hands that he bets on the river are ones that he does not hold anywhere near frequently enough to go for a checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I played this hand, and upon first posting it, QJ slipped my mind as a likely holding for this player. Now, reveiwing the hand again, I believe one very likely holding would be QJs. It would be a stretch coldcalling the PF UTG raise from me, but it would seem to fit in with this player's play. He wanted to slowplay until the turn, then was worried I had AK and his hand was going to get three bet. I think adding in QJ as a likely hand, I agree with you that this player doesn't bet enough to make a check worthwile.

At the time, I thought the likely holdings were Axs or a flush draw. I thought the K would have raised (or will bet out on the river anyway) and I thought a pair of Aces would likely bet here if the player was thinking. I assume many tight players are thinking players, althought this player was probably better classified as a thinking, "scared" (passive) player.

The way I saw the hand going at the time, I only saw the player folding or betting the vast majority of the time. I do believe, however, that QJ is a very likely holding here but I would be hard pressed to limit this players river-bet calling hands to anything but the following:

QJs
Axs
&lt;EDIT&gt; Also, a pair of T's would call...but TJs or QTs are the only likely cold calling hands for this player and I think those are a stretch.

Can anyone list any more hands here? I don't think we get a call from 99 that often since villian is a tight player and called on the flop with a player acting behind him.

Lozing