Just how stupid was I?

[markc212]

$2/$4 home game (with 4 2+2'ers). I've got a mix of good and bad players at the table. I'm on the button with 66. loose player calls in LP, I call, good player in BB raises, LP calls, I call.

Flop is Q/forums/images/icons/spade.gif 4/forums/images/icons/club.gif 4/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

Before the flop, I put BB on AK. BB bets, LP calls, I call. Should I have called or raised or folded?

Magical 6 falls on the Turn and I'm golden with a boat. BB checks, LP checks, I bet. BB check raises. I think about whether it's possible BB has QQ, and it's obviously a no. He would've slowplayed the flop rather than betting. I come over the top with a reraise. BB calls, LP folds.

River is a 5. BB checks, I bet. BB looks at me quizzically again and calls.

Just how wrong was my play on the flop? Even though I won the hand, I recognize that I may have committed some serious errors on the flop. True or false?

[SoBeDude]

Ug. table with FOUR 2+2ers. Ug. Dealer! table change please!

I think your preflop play was bad.

An UTG raiser is usually not raising with crap. and you have a LP caller as well. and you need to call 3/4's of 2 bets to see the flop. I think this is an easy fold.

On the flop, UTG bets and LP calls again. How can you feel good about your hand? Once again this is a must fold.

Turn. you hit a 2 outter. pure luck. and you know it. And no way you had the odds to do this.

Surely you realize that your preflop and flop plays are big leaks?

Lets look at the math. You're 7.5 to 1 to flop a set here.

So the part of the pot that isn't your contribution is
Preflop:
$3 dead = $1 dead (your post) + $2 dead BB
$8 two $4 bets from opponents.

So $11 in the pot and you're putting in 3. so you're getting thats 3.67 to 1. Thats no where close to enough to play for the set.

Now on the flop, you have a low pair on a paired board. you are maybe ahead, maybe behind, but surely a dog with two opponents and two cards to come.

There is $11 in the pot, a $2 bet to you. Thats $13 bucks and you need to call $2. 6.5 to 1 on your money and you're drawing to a 2 outter. you need like 18 to one to do that (giving room for implied odds). there are 46 unknown cards in the deck and you need one of 2. So about 22 to one here drawing odds.

If you're in this spot say 100 times. You're going to get your set about 4.5 times, and win $27 (see math below), for a total win of $108. but that means you'll lose the other 96 times for a loss of that $2 bet, totalling a loss $192. So you're losing 192-108 or $84 in 100 hands, or 84 cents every time you make this play.

Lets look at the pot thats not your contribution:
$11 preflop
$4 Flop:
$8 Turn
$4 River

You made $27 on the hand. Thats 1 big bet from each of 2 players preflop, 1/2 of a BB from each of 2 players on the flop. 2 big bets from one player on the turn. one bb on the river.

You put $3, $2, $8, $4 for a total of $17 bucks.

You spent 17 bucks and made 27. You probably made less due to rake and toke. Do you think this was a good investment given the number of times you'll win this hand?

I hope this helps.

OK all you smarter than me people. Did I make any mistakes!? (Please point them out if I did)

-Scott

[MaxPower]

When he check-raised on the turn, what did you put him on?

[Bob T.]

I think the flop call was pretty weak. Preflop, this isn't an ideal situation for pocket sixes, unless you think that you can win the pot on the flop if everyone misses. Other than that, you did OK.

[Bob T.]

Did I make any mistakes!? (Please point them out if I did)


Well, it was a home game, so I don't think that this applies.

You probably made less due to rake and toke.

But other than that, I think you got it right.

[SoBeDude]

It looks like you did a major edit to the post since the time I read and began my reply.

I'd swear BB wasn't playing and there was no check-raise on the turn.

This changes the details of the math but I still think the play is a mistake.

-Scott

[SoBeDude]

[MaxPower]

Yes, he did edit the post. But your response to the original was excellent.

But looking at the revised post, let's say that he is aboslutely sure that the BB has AK. They play together a lot and he knows his oppenent will only raise out of the BB with AA, KK or AK. Furthermore he has a tell on his opponent and can be sure he doesn't have AA or KK.

The loose player will play any two cards, so there is a good chance he has the best hand on the flop. How should he proceed on the flop?

[markc212]

Sorry about the edit. I went back and reviewed the hand with some of the other people at the table and realized I had remembered the hand incorrectly.

In terms of your comments, I think most of your reasoning is correct and my play was probably faulty.

Once I got the check raise on the turn, I revised my original read of AK and put BB on either AA, KK or AQ. I knew QQ was not a possibility. Thus, I was sure I had the best hand. If an A, K, or Q were to fall on the river, I was pretty sure I'd be dead.

Thus, I played the turn and river in a way that any other person would've played it, but my preflop and flop play are questionable at best. Specifically, I don't think it was a grave error to play 66 on the button, but it was probably a horrific mistake to bite on the check raise on the flop.

[markc212]

Thanks for the encouragement, Bob.

[markc212]

As an aside, I was resoundly crushed 2 hands later against the same opponent when he caught a 6-hi straight with his pocket 6s.

Come see, come saw.

[CrackerZack]

Since I was present in the hand and on your immediate right, I think you should've raised to isolate the LP personally. It wouldn't have worked in this situation, but its the move to make. You don't want the blinds in the hand. Who is the 4th 2+2er? I count only 3 but don't know if LP or friend are lurkers.

[markc212]

I consider Adrian to be half a 2+2'er like me.