3/5 live game at the Morongo - tough pre-flop decision

[FreakDaddy]

UTG+1 ~$450
MP1 ~$150
Hero covers on button

UTG+1 is a decently solid player, but he's quite tight. Haven't seen him get out of line and he's not played a lot of pots. He open for 6xBB which 5-6 is standard.

Folds to MP1 who is a bit fishy and plays a lot of hands and he pushes.

Folds to me on button and I look down at R&B Kings.

What's my play?
Here's my thought process:
UTG+1 is fairly tight and for him to open 6x in EP I know he has a very solid hand. His range to me is AK,AA,QQ and probably not even JJ or AQ, although they are still a remote possibility.
MP1's range is much higher and he could have all the standard including AA-TT, AK, AQ and even AJs is a remote possibility.
I can very likely have MP1 beat. If I push UTG+1 is folding everything except AA in my mind. I can't flat call here. So do I just close my eyes and push, or just wait for another spot?

Results to follow.

[TrailofTears]

Flat call, and hope that UTG comes over the top with a push. I am happy to get it all in here.

-T

(obviously, if you have a good read on UTG, then this may differ, but I doubt any read will put him squarely on AA)

[FreakDaddy]

UTG is not coming over the top with anything less than AA, so that's essentially my dilema. Anyone else?

[elus2]

what's his range for calling 120 if you flat call and what's his range if he reraises when you flat call? given his range of opening hands in that position, he has AA ~30% of the time. i like to call here if the following conditions hold true.
- he reraises with only AA if you flat call
- he doesn't flat call with AA
- he can include TT+ in your range if you flat call thereby allowing you to force him into a mistake postflop with a wider range of hands

really i think it's a fold since i doubt he makes a mistake enough of the time here.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is not coming over the top with anything less than AA, so that's essentially my dilema. Anyone else?

[/ QUOTE ]

So if you push, he folds all but AA. This makes pushing bad. If you call, he raises with ONLY AA. Based on these two reads, you need to just call and see what he does. If he pushes, you fold your kings. If he just calls, you look to get the rest of your money in on 90% of flops.

This is all assuming you can be 100% sure that he will only push or call a push with AA.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
UTG is not coming over the top with anything less than AA, so that's essentially my dilema. Anyone else?

[/ QUOTE ]

So if you push, he folds all but AA. This makes pushing bad. If you call, he raises with ONLY AA. Based on these two reads, you need to just call and see what he does. If he pushes, you fold your kings. If he just calls, you look to get the rest of your money in on 90% of flops.

This is all assuming you can be 100% sure that he will only push or call a push with AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well nothing is 100%, but my feeling is that most decent players at this level are not going to the felt pre-flop against 2 pushes in front of them unless they have AA.

So your line, based on my information, is call $150 and fold to a push?

[Malachii]

IMO this is a much more interesting decision with QQ. With Kings it's an easy push.

[ryanghall]

Call.

I'm probably calling an all-in, as well even if I think he has AA. The pot is huge and it would be a DISASTER not to if he had anything but.

Ryan

I don't really see how anyone can advocate a fold here.

Call, and then if he pushes you can consider folding.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO this is a much more interesting decision with QQ. With Kings it's an easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really?

Look at it this way Mal. If I call, I may win $150. If I push, he's folding everything but AA and I may win ~$150, if he calls I'm likely losing ~$450 as a 5:1 dog. I'll let you so the rest of the math.

[FreakDaddy]

I did the unthinkable, and folded my Kings after considering all the math. Someone correct my sickness if I'm indeed wrong here.

UTG+1 called and flipped up Aces, MP1 turned over AK. And the flop came with the improbable one outer K. UTG+1 held up and won with his bullets and I slighlty kicked myself, but still felt I did the correct thing.

I dont like that fold one bit.

Given UTG's possible range of hands, which is fairly large considering all he did was raise UTG, and MP1s range of hands is possibly just as large as UTG's IMO. I don't see a valid reason to fold KK here. Just my opinion.

I like the fold given how much UTG+1 has on the table. If he was that tight, you just had to let the kings go.

This is off-topic, but is this the 2/5 NL @ Casino Morongo in Cabazon, CA?