Facing a turn raise with middle pair heads up vs a preflop raiser

[cartman]

CO is 25/15 with attempt to steal blinds of 32. He is aggressive heads up postflop.

PREFLOP:
CO open-raises and only Hero calls in the BB with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif

FLOP:(4.5 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises.

TURN: (4.25 BB)6/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero?


If you call the turn raise, what if any river cards cause you to fold to a river bet?

How would your answer change if the turn card would have been 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif instead of 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif?

Thanks,
Cartman

[cartman]

Does anyone not typically checkraise this flop?

Thanks,
Cartman

[partygirluk]

Number of options. Calling turn and folding river UI is one of them, but I would call the river is he has seen me folding rivers after calling a turn raise.

[csuf_gambler]

anyone check/call the turn?

When you guys figure out the best way to play these let me know.

[sweetjazz]

I've been moving toward folding these in situations where I don't have a history with the villain. He could be making a free showdown play with 77 or A4 or even AK. He could be semibluffing with JT or on an outright bluff. But I think a lot of solid players don't get out of line that often (since it's rarely particularly profitable to do so against an unknown) and many of them are too weak to raise with weak made hands. So I think you're against a better hand too often to call down profitably (though it's close, as you almost have good enough odds to peel one more).

To avoid being exploitable you should be calling these down some of the time. If you have extra outs -- say a gutshot -- that gives you good enough odds to call the turn and it's probably worth calling down for one more bet (since you have to do it some of the time anyway).

Also, at lower mid-limit games (say 5/10 and 10/20), I see relatively little semibluff turn raising by solid players in HU pots and I see many otherwise solid players making pretty bad calldowns HU (even given the liberal standards one should be using to show down hands). It seems that good players have realized that they have to show down a winner so often that they will value bet their made hands to death and try to get to get to showdown cheaply with weak made hands and try to draw cheaply with drawing hands. That seems, to me, to be the general state of the game at this point. (I should say that I have played a fair amount of full ring lately as well as 6 max, and that may be clouding my judgment of the 6 max games a bit.)

Hmm, so I guess it all depends. But as a default play, I'd consider folding. (Also, since I intend to show down more liberally after folding hands like these, I am okay if my image is weak-tight and that players try to take shots at me, because I plan on adjusting a bit to take advantage of that.) Against some with a history, I need to consider what hands he 3-bets the flop with (the fact that he didn't 3-bet this flop may say something significant with) and I'll have a better idea of how often he likes to take stabs at pots with weak hands or nothing at all. It doesn't take too much restealing on the turn on his part to make calling down correct.

[sweetjazz]

I have noticed that most people call down in these situations, so I am almost always have the goods when I raise the turn in this spot if I am villain. But if I see someone fold here, that's an obvious note to make, and I no longer need to have a hand anymore.

So while playing this hand from the blinds is tricky, I don't think it is too tricky for the CO. I think BB is going to showdown his hand period (unless he's on a draw). This seems like a really bad spot to semibluff raise, and so a raise here by CO should almost always be for value.

I generally need a read on BB before I think he's capable of releasing his hand here.

[ArturiusX]

I fold this. Small pot, and I don't think hes semi bluffing with draws on this board.

Flop check raise is standard.

[Danenania]

Tricky. To begin with, if you think CO is aggro enough that he will do this fairly often, and if it will make you squirm when he does it, that might be a pretty good reason to just check/call him down the whole way from the flop--it's nearly impossible to counter these positional turn raises if he uses them well.

That said, I think I'd have to at least call this turn. There are just too many worse hands he could be testing you with, either semibluffing straight draws or looking for a free showdown along with some bluff equity with a weakish hand like A6s/K6/A4s etc. These possibilities plus your outs to improve mean you need to see another card imo.

Given the reaons I call the turn, I'm hesitant to fold on many rivers once we get there. Tens are pretty sure bets to have hit him if he bets on one, so I'd check/fold on a Ten. Same with a Jack or King I think. Anything else is dicey because it's either unlikely to improve him or if it is, he will know it looks scary to you. The latter is the problem with folding on an Ace. JT and 87 are both likely to bluff a river Ace.

[Jeff W]

Step 1 is to call the turn. There is a good chance that he is raising for a free showdown and you have outs regardless.

As for the river, I usually end up calling down unless an A, K, J or T hits if I think he is capable of raising the turn with a draw. My favorite opponents are the ones who raise for a free showdown and don't balance their turn play with semi-bluffs--against them I check-fold the river unimproved.

I bet-call a 9 or an 8.

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
Step 1 is to call the turn. There is a good chance that he is raising for a free showdown and you have outs regardless.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you also call the turn raise with 3rd or 4th pair?

If so do you also call the river unless an A, K, J, or T hits?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you also call the turn raise with 3rd or 4th pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, as long as it's a board where he might raise Ace high or a lower pair for a free showdown.

[ QUOTE ]
If so do you also call the river unless an A, K, J, or T hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

No I don't, but I'm willing to be convinced otherwise. If he bets the river, he should be betting as a bluff or TP+, so it shouldn't matter whether we have 2nd pair or 4th.

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you also call the turn raise with 3rd or 4th pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, as long as it's a board where he might raise Ace high or a lower pair for a free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I apologize in advanced for my ignorance, but does this just mean "as long as the board isn't Ace high?"

In other words, what other type of board would he be unwilling to raise Ace high or a lower pair for a free showdown?

Also, in the case where the turn was 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, do you fold to a river bet with your 98 if a low heart hits?

Thanks,
Cartman

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this. Small pot, and I don't think hes semi bluffing with draws on this board.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I agree that this pot is small. His turn raise brings it to 7.25 big bets and I usually have 5 outs. It appears to me that I probably need to call the turn raise with any non-pocket pair.

Does anybody else fold any non-pocket pair immediately when he raises the turn here?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anybody else fold any non-pocket pair immediately when he raises the turn here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. I tend to play it as Jeff W described.

[TheMetetron]

Just want to third that Jeff is pretty spot on with how I would play this too. I'm definitely calling the turn.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been moving toward folding these in situations where I don't have a history with the villain. He could be making a free showdown play with 77 or A4 or even AK. He could be semibluffing with JT or on an outright bluff. But I think a lot of solid players don't get out of line that often (since it's rarely particularly profitable to do so against an unknown) and many of them are too weak to raise with weak made hands. So I think you're against a better hand too often to call down profitably (though it's close, as you almost have good enough odds to peel one more).

To avoid being exploitable you should be calling these down some of the time. If you have extra outs -- say a gutshot -- that gives you good enough odds to call the turn and it's probably worth calling down for one more bet (since you have to do it some of the time anyway).

Also, at lower mid-limit games (say 5/10 and 10/20), I see relatively little semibluff turn raising by solid players in HU pots and I see many otherwise solid players making pretty bad calldowns HU (even given the liberal standards one should be using to show down hands). It seems that good players have realized that they have to show down a winner so often that they will value bet their made hands to death and try to get to get to showdown cheaply with weak made hands and try to draw cheaply with drawing hands. That seems, to me, to be the general state of the game at this point. (I should say that I have played a fair amount of full ring lately as well as 6 max, and that may be clouding my judgment of the 6 max games a bit.)

Hmm, so I guess it all depends. But as a default play, I'd consider folding. (Also, since I intend to show down more liberally after folding hands like these, I am okay if my image is weak-tight and that players try to take shots at me, because I plan on adjusting a bit to take advantage of that.) Against some with a history, I need to consider what hands he 3-bets the flop with (the fact that he didn't 3-bet this flop may say something significant with) and I'll have a better idea of how often he likes to take stabs at pots with weak hands or nothing at all. It doesn't take too much restealing on the turn on his part to make calling down correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow this is a great post.

[tansoku]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone not typically checkraise this flop?

Thanks,
Cartman

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

313,830 games 0.109 secs 2,879,174 games/sec

Board: Qh 9d 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 40.8791 % [ 00.41 00.00 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K7s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J8s, AKo-A5o, KQo-K8o, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 2: 59.1209 % [ 00.59 00.00 ] { 9s8s }

Don't know how close this hand range is.

I'm wondering if chk-calling sucks or not.

Pflop pot = 4.5 SB = 2.25 BB
Assume he bets every street postflop when ahead.
Final pot 7.25 B

Times he's ahead/wins:
7.25 x 40% = 2.9

To find out how much he needs to put in when behind:
Pot x 60% >= 2.9, Pot needs to be 4.83BB.

Postflop: 4.83 - 2.25 = 2.33BB
Of which you are contributing half, so 1.17 BB.
If he autobets the flop, 1.17 - .5 = .67.
So he needs to bet the turn or river when behind 67% of the time.

Assuming I did this right, as long as he will lead the turn, or bet the river when the turn gets checked through >60% chk-calling down is +EV.

[aslowjoe]

[ QUOTE ]
He is aggressive heads up postflop

[/ QUOTE ]

There is your likely answer.

If I call the turn I think I have to call the river. Although an A might be tough. I am going to get about 9-1 on my call. At least 10% of the time it could be a bluff.
Also what does villan think of you if he is a 25/15 player he is probably a thinking player. This a great board for you to bluff on yourself. Have you been aggresive with him before and taken this line to have him fold. Maybe he is fighting back or?

[ggbman]

At 10-20, i think this is a fold. While the 10-20 games are aggressive, generally i dont think they are aggressive enough that calling down is +EV here. Villian almost always has a good queen or better here. In my experience, more players will make semi-bluffs/free showdown plays as you move up, so while i think it's a fold in this particular game, i don't think it would be in the 50 or 100 game.

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
At 10-20, i think this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean a turn fold or a fold unimproved on the river?

Thanks,
Cartman