Bet this river?

[Ghazban]

Villain sat down 1 hand ago and I've never seen him before. I felt there was a chance villain was on the club draw but hit that 4 and was trying to price himself in for the river. If he hit the 4, I'm not winning any more and if he was on a draw without it, he's not calling. Then again, maybe he has 99 or something and will call (he could even have JJ/QQ and be playing tight).

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero ($258.90)
MP ($283.55)
CO ($68.65)
Button ($368.90)
SB ($102.09)
BB ($203.62)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($17) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, BB calls $12.

Turn: ($41) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $35</font>, BB calls $30.

River: ($111) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero??

[Bukem_]

$75

Really scared of one unlikely hand that backdoored trips?

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
$75

Really scared of one unlikely hand that backdoored trips?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he's scared of a CR. And what hand is calling 75 here?

Check behind.

-T

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$75

Really scared of one unlikely hand that backdoored trips?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he's scared of a CR. And what worse hand is calling 75 here?

Check behind.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

This was essentially my thinking but I'm not sure its correct.

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$75

Really scared of one unlikely hand that backdoored trips?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he's scared of a CR. And what worse hand is calling 75 here?

Check behind.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

This was essentially my thinking but I'm not sure its correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I meant "what worse hand", but I didn't feel the need to clarify for you. I think this is fine thinking, but obviously it depends on your read of villain. Just how bad is he?

-T

[Bukem_]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$75

Really scared of one unlikely hand that backdoored trips?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he's scared of a CR. And what worse hand is calling 75 here?

Check behind.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

This was essentially my thinking but I'm not sure its correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are giving these monkeys way too much credit.

[Ghazban]

Should I infer from this you think 98s/A8s are calling a river bet then? What other hands do you feel play this way and call on the river? (keeping in mind that villain is totally unknwon at this point)

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$75

Really scared of one unlikely hand that backdoored trips?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he's scared of a CR. And what worse hand is calling 75 here?

Check behind.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

This was essentially my thinking but I'm not sure its correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are giving these monkeys way too much credit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to explain then? I think you are giving his hand too much credit. He is ahead of 99, and few other logically played hands. And he can't call a CR here. What value is there in betting this?

-T

I'm fine with checking...if it turns out he flopped a set, then you'll be happy you didn't bet the river. If it turns out you had him beat the whole way, then you'll still be happy with your profit.

What worries me most is that he check-called the turn...check the river, and be happy with whatever the outcome

[Bukem_]

I might not have the action 100% correct, but a similar hand just happened on live at the bike. 10/20 game.

Think it was straddled pot, 6 players to flop, (240)

Flop 326, two clubs. Checked to 99, bets pot.

Turn 2. 500, call.

River 10 non club. 700, call. Q3o loses.

This is what I assume I'm up against until I see otherwise.

[FreakDaddy]

Unless I'm missing something, this seems like a standard check behind. I'd even check it against bad players.

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
This is what I assume I'm up against until I see otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't feel like fishing through my PT database to find hands that end up with a nasty CR at then end or a flat-calling JJ/QQ, so I will let you experience those types of hands for yourself.

Also, this isn't 10/20 live we are talking about, so bear that in mind when you set up a straw-dummy argument.

-T

[xorbie]

I would bet $15-$18 on the flop.

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet $15-$18 on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

God I love that you ignore the whole debate going on and focus on that rather unimportant (IMO) point.

When can I sit at a table with you again zorbie? It has been to long since I got to play a 2p2 game with the likes of you, TWP, mason, etc.

-T

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet $15-$18 on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually do, too, but I'm experimenting with different bet sizes lately.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would bet $15-$18 on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

God I love that you ignore the whole debate going on and focus on that rather unimportant (IMO) point.

When can I sit at a table with you again zorbie? It has been to long since I got to play a 2p2 game with the likes of you, TWP, mason, etc.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. This whole hand plays one way when you bet $10-$12 on the flop and an entirely different way when youbet $15-$18. If I had bet $12 on the flop I would raise the turn huge, trying to sell AK.

[TrailofTears]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would bet $15-$18 on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

God I love that you ignore the whole debate going on and focus on that rather unimportant (IMO) point.

When can I sit at a table with you again zorbie? It has been to long since I got to play a 2p2 game with the likes of you, TWP, mason, etc.

-T

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. This whole hand plays one way when you bet $10-$12 on the flop and an entirely different way when youbet $15-$18. If I had bet $12 on the flop I would raise the turn huge, trying to sell AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really think this is a significant bet, unless you and villain have enough history to make bet size a noticable factor in the hand. My guess is that this is not the case here.

EDIT: I apologize xorbie. I got this hand confused with the other hand Ghaz posted (JJ hand). You are entirely correct about the flop bet. Again, sorry bud.

[jonnyUCB]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:

Quote:

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$75

Really scared of one unlikely hand that backdoored trips?



No, he's scared of a CR. And what worse hand is calling 75 here?

Check behind.

-T



This was essentially my thinking but I'm not sure its correct.



You are giving these monkeys way too much credit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are giving them too little. Villian sat down one hand ago.. you think he'll pin hero on a triple barrel overcard bluff and call with a worse hand?

Easiest check behind ever.

[meleader2]

WA/WB. check behind. u played it nice.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
WA/WB. check behind. u played it nice.

[/ QUOTE ]

It really doesn't matter how much we are ahead/behind with no cards left to come.

[meleader2]

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WA/WB. check behind. u played it nice.

[/ QUOTE ]

It really doesn't matter how much we are ahead/behind with no cards left to come.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's y it's stupid to bet.