Is this turn 3 bet spewing? And some clarkmesiter for thought

[thesharpie]

Villain looks to be your standard 6max TAG PF, he's 23/16.6/1.4 with 22 wtsd%. He took AK unimproved to showdown against my blind steal when I raised the flop, and also semibluff bet the flop 3 way with just a gutshot, so he does know how to semibluff.

I 3 bet the turn since he could be doing this with a single spade looking for a free showdown, or something like a pocket pair with a spade looking for the same thing. I was going to fold to a cap. On the river why must I bet/fold? Is he really going to fold AA/KK here, or even some set? Or is he calling down with JJ?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, SB folds.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

[TheHammer24]

Villian seems pretty capable of bluff raising the river. I really suggest check calling here.

The rest of the hand is reasonable.

[thesharpie]

I really wanted to check/call at the time, I blindly bet without thinking just because I thought it was the thing to do, but now I've thought about it more I think I prefer bet/folding.

What hand is bluff raising here? I don't see a worse hand getting this far apart from maybe JJ/AT. A low pocket pair without a spade should fold to a 3 bet, unimproved overcards without a spade shouldn't even raise the turn, and if they did surely they'd fold to the 3 bet for fear of drawing dead. I think this type of player is just looking to showdown JJ or AT, either that or fold it which gains nothing, but if he's the type to fold that he might fold AA/KK. Also he's hardly ever bluffing the river if I check since he's gotta figure I'm hardly ever folding after the strength I've just shown.

The question is whether he bluff raises more than 1 in 15.5 times, I don't think so but if I'm wrong then I guess we've got to check/call since we don't have the equity to bet/call.

Edit: What makes you think he's capable of bluff raising the river? Or is it the fact he only has to do it 1 in 15.5 times?

[thesharpie]

Bump