River bet with AA? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

Whitey

10-21-2005, 03:27 PM

PokerStars (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of 10.
UTG raises 60, 2 folds, MP2 calls 60, Hero raises 140 to 200, 4 folds, UTG calls, MP2 folds.

Flop: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets 300, UTG calls.

Turn: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets 300, UTG calls.

River: 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ?

Final Pot:

The turn bet was to try and induce a bluff, I was not expecting a call.No read on villan, first hand he had played.

Exitonly

10-21-2005, 03:35 PM

cheeck behind, you're not going to get an 8 or a J to fold and i can't see any hand you beat, beside maybe KK/QQ to call you.

maybe an 8 folds if you push, but thats not even a guarantee.

hurlyburly

10-21-2005, 04:07 PM

Since this is early, I'm guessing you each have about 700ish left? If so, check behind unless you can call an all-in. The pots nice when its yours or you have something left if he was fishing for a river c/r with his jack.

KingDan

10-21-2005, 04:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
cheeck behind, you're not going to get an 8 or a J to fold and i can't see any hand you beat, beside maybe KK/QQ to call you.

maybe an 8 folds if you push, but thats not even a guarantee.

[/ QUOTE ]

People love to call Ace high here... and I doubt villian folds an 8.

Still I check.

cferejohn

10-21-2005, 05:02 PM

I'd check behind. Seems like you will get called by exactly the hands you beat.

10-21-2005, 05:11 PM

can't see many hands where villain would raise UTG and then call a raise having an 8.. also can't see it with a J, but I check behind as well, the pot is already good enough to win and only hand that will call a river bet is a J or 8 (maybe QQ or KK too).

10-21-2005, 05:12 PM

just to add, if I had to guess it looks like you are both scared of the J's on board, and that villain has QQ.. of course I could be totally off /images/graemlins/grin.gif

illegit

10-21-2005, 05:27 PM

Hands that you beat and might call if you value bet: MAYBE TT-99, QQ-KK, sometimes A-high like AhKh especially. But a good player mucks almost all the hands you beat, including these, only a real bozo is calling with anything worse than your hand (though a good player might BET this river with a hand worse than yours knowing you probably hold an overpair). And depending on the buy-in level players are generally very prepared to go broke with an underfull so I wouldn't try pushing anyone off an 8 too often unless I had a read that the player was solid. I check behind here basically always.

hurlyburly

10-21-2005, 06:04 PM

Yeah, I'm humbled by the top card pairing after the CC on the flop. I'd check the turn just to see what he does on the river. Stack sizes going in mean a lot, and they limit the options. Villain really can't fold an 8, and might very well check to the guy who bet into him when the board paired.

REL18

10-21-2005, 06:10 PM

i feel this guy has like an 82 83 84 85 or qq and is scared of jack just check

10-21-2005, 06:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i feel this guy has like an 82 83 84 85 or qq and is scared of jack just check

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, tons of people raise with 82 83 84 85 UTG :P

I'm thinking AK or TT here. I would still check tho

CardSharpCook

10-21-2005, 06:43 PM

Guys this is a value bet situation. He has an inferior calling hand 60-70% of the time (excluding hands that fold anyway), and doesn't reraise with an 8. He has no reason to believe you DON'T have a Jack. If he check-raises, you can walk away. However, you're getting called down a lot! and with a lot of 2nd best hands. Throw out another 300. Those of you thinking this is a check-behind, think this through again. What does he do with Jack, what does he do with an 8, what does he do with an Ace, what does he put you on. His play so far says to me, "No Jack". But this is a VB situation.

TomHimself

10-21-2005, 06:49 PM

this isnt a value bet situation imo, your only getting called by hands you beat and if you get CR'ed and fold you may only have maybe 350-500

illegit

10-21-2005, 07:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Guys this is a value bet situation. He has an inferior calling hand 60-70% of the time (excluding hands that fold anyway), and doesn't reraise with an 8. He has no reason to believe you DON'T have a Jack. If he check-raises, you can walk away. However, you're getting called down a lot! and with a lot of 2nd best hands. Throw out another 300. Those of you thinking this is a check-behind, think this through again. A) What does he do with Jack, B)what does he do with an 8, what does he do with an Ace, what does he put you on. His play so far says to me, "No Jack". But this is a VB situation.

[/ QUOTE ]
A) Bet the river
B) Play it like he did. I don't know what hands he's raising and calling a re-raise with preflop that have an 8 though.

I think his most likely holdings don't beat us, but I also believe very few of them call a river bet anyway.

Whitey

10-21-2005, 07:01 PM

I have $700 left if I check, which this early is enough to recover from, if I bet Im putting him all in. ( he has $500 )

I'll post results shortly as its started to provoke some discussion as to weather you shud value bet here.

CardSharpCook

10-21-2005, 07:05 PM

Excuse me, I did not notice the stack concerns. Sadly, I think that makes this a check behind.

Whitey

10-21-2005, 07:10 PM

I followed the concensus and checked, he showed QQ, I think I value bet with more chips but with no read I couldnt work out what he would raise UTG with and not reraise that flop.

QQ I guess /images/graemlins/shocked.gif