Flop a joint, river pairs board

[PokerFink]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($60.45)
Hero ($200)
UTG ($144.10)
MP ($85.15)
CO ($93.60)
Button ($31.35)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($10) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $9</font>, UTG calls $9, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: ($28) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $22</font>, UTG calls $22.

River: ($72) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero????

Should I:

a) Check/Call
b) Bet/Fold
c) Bet/Call

[arod15]

Bet/ Call i think your good here more often than not. A Heart would have scared me more...

Check call.

His most likely holding is missed hearts, maybe with something a little extra (like a six, which is why bet folding is less than optimal. He could easily raise with trips here (I would)). He could also have some random ten, 109, 88, an overpair. All these hands would likely call $20, and might well check behind. I think it is very unlikely you are behind. I do not see many players waiting til the river with a set these days, and two pair with a six seems rather unlikely. Also 99 and 10-10 could very well raise preflop.

So, check call.

[etgryphon]

I think I'm going with the $40-$50 bet and a fold to a push.

But, then I could be a moron because I have to still work on my blocking bet delivery.

-Gryph

[arod15]

[ QUOTE ]
Check call.

I hate that you open him up for a huge bluff there. At this level people constantly push when they miss their flush. Your also usally ahead here. I bet 50 and consider calling an all in depending on how wild this player is. By betting your sending a message that your strong and a player contemplating a push for a missed flush will give it up most times....

[orange]

I think I bet $50. I don't know if I'm good enough to lay this down. IMO, a /images/graemlins/heart.gif is scarier than the 6.

What hand ranges do you put villan on? I think he has maybe A10,/images/graemlins/heart.gifdraw, maybe a pair+gutshot(ie. 88), or something like that. I would think a set would raise somewhere in this draw heavy board, but I could be wrong.

Are there any reads on UTG? I could see checking to induce a bluff ok here, granted that he will bet most of the times when checked to. Keeps the pot more under control. I think you miss some value with the c/c, which is why I think bet/call is better.

Well played otherwise.

[ QUOTE ]
Check call.

I hate that you open him up for a huge bluff there. At this level people constantly push when they miss their flush. Your also usally ahead here. I bet 50 and consider calling an all in depending on how wild this player is. By betting your sending a message that your strong and a player contemplating a push for a missed flush will give it up most times....

[/ QUOTE ]

Why on earth would you want your opponent to know how strong you are? If checking is going to induce him to make a big bluff I see that as only a good thing. I also suspect players do not usually bluff 2x the pot all in this spot very often, but I am unfamiliar with the game so it COULD be possible.

Note, there is definitely value in betting this river since you are ahead so often, I just feel that you are going to make more by inducing hearts to bluff or a good ten to value bet.

[troymclur]

Unless you have any info on the player, bet/call or check/call are the only options and both are to induce a raise.
EDIT:

To expound. The ONLY hand you should be worried about is a 66, seing as how a 99 or 1010 would raise PF. But with the second 6, its very doubtful, and when you consider he didn't re-raise you on the flop or turn, its virtually a non-issue. With three other players left to act, only a moron wouldn't raise a set on a highly coordinated flop like that. You're good, try to get all his money. Best bet, since he is most likely to have a busted flush draw, is to check and hope he bets. Assuming he has a busted draw, most any bet will put him to fold.

[nietzreznor]

I would either c/c or bet/call, depending on how often this opponent has a missed draw here, and how often he ould bluff if he does.
The 6 really doesn't scare me that much, I think a set probably raises either the flop or turn, and seeing as he's UTG, a goofy 2 pair hand (like T6) is extremely unlikely.

[FlyingStart]

I like a 1/3 bet here (I also aggree that hero is very likely to be ahead here) because it might induce a raise from missed flush or somthing, or be called by some Ten.

[Ghazban]

I check/call this on Party but am not sure on Stars. Stars tends to be more weak/tight and doesn't have as many desperation bluffs on the river from missed draws. I'm comfortable check/calling an all-in overbet on Party because it'll be missed hearts a huge percentage of the time.

I don't see a huge number of hands that you are beating that will call on all streets (T9 is about the only reasonable one and it seems that hand would've raised at some point). If I check/call and lose to a boat (from a flopped set, I'd imagine as T6/96 seem unlikely to be limped UTG), I'll definitely make a note on the player as someone who will slowplay sets on draw-heavy boards. If I check and he checks behind with AT, that's another thing worth noting (passivity with TPTK on a draw-heavy board).

[nuSFwck]

there's no way i'm folding here. if villian is going to just call with a set on the flop and turn with a board full of draws, well, you'll get his money later.

i really think you're way ahead. if you check, it gives him the opportunity to bluff and you can just call him. but, if you go this route, you risk missing a value bet on the river.

i think the best way to play this is to keep firing. i really think villian is on a draw, and even if he raises your hand is good 90% of the time imo.

yes, check/calling allows you to pick up additional $$ from a bluff, but it really look like villian has top pair, and he'll likely call if you bet the river. it's not entirely certain he'll be the river with top pair, though.

there will be times when villian does have a set here, but given the passive way he played the hand, i feel very confident you are good here.

[Leptyne]

With a flush draw, a set, or a straight draw villain should be raising the flop for a free card. That makes it look more like top 2 pr or AT, but could still be some kind of donkish play.

With 4 players left to act on a board this coordinated I'm going to overbet the flop with $15. You would like to find a caller with a set or nut flush draw, or a draw to a better straight. Since there a lot of cards that will kill your action on the turn you need to try and build a pot here. When the turn blanks you need to fire the second barrell to take away the implied odds.

When the board pairs you're either WA or WB. I make a blocking bet here, which often looks like a monster "call me" bet or a bet inviting a raise.

I definitely like a value bet here. Whatever you think will get called by top pair or some sort of 2 pair. Maybe a 1/3 of the pot? If he raises, you'll have a tough decision unless it's only a small raise. However, it's tough to put him on set since he didn't raise the Flop or Turn with such a scary board. Unless you have a good read you probably have to call just about any amount.

[PokerFink]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($60.45)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($200)</font>
<font color="#C00000">UTG ($144.10)</font>
MP ($85.15)
CO ($93.60)
Button ($31.35)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($10) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $9</font>, UTG calls $9, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: ($28) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $22</font>, UTG calls $22.

River: ($72) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $33</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $111.1 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $78.10.

Final Pot: $294.20

Thoughts?

EDIT: By the way, let me add it was my first hand at the table, so no read.

[kurto]

I like it. I feel like any set would have made a move early. I can't see someone under the gun have 9-6 or 10-6.

I can't help but think you're ahead here enough times to make this a call.

[FreakDaddy]

Just curious, do reads not matter in poker anymore? /images/graemlins/smile.gif What range of hands will this guy limp in EP?

If I win tunnel it I say bet 1/3/fold. I mean, there isn't much this guy is calling with except perhaps JJ. If he's a bit aggresive and I'm not giving him credit for a set, I check/call hoping he'll bluff at the pot. Most likely you're beat on this board here though unless he's mega donk.

[kurto]

you don't think a set bets/raises anywhere before the river?

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
I check/call this on Party but am not sure on Stars. Stars tends to be more weak/tight and doesn't have as many desperation bluffs on the river from missed draws. I'm comfortable check/calling an all-in overbet on Party because it'll be missed hearts a huge percentage of the time.

I don't see a huge number of hands that you are beating that will call on all streets (T9 is about the only reasonable one and it seems that hand would've raised at some point). If I check/call and lose to a boat (from a flopped set, I'd imagine as T6/96 seem unlikely to be limped UTG), I'll definitely make a note on the player as someone who will slowplay sets on draw-heavy boards. If I check and he checks behind with AT, that's another thing worth noting (passivity with TPTK on a draw-heavy board).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think a note is needed here about slowplaying a set, I think villian is pretty certain that hero isn't drawing, plus hero is giving himself incorrect odds so villian doesn't have to. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I agree with everything else you're saying here, and without a read I think the texture of this flop says you're beat most of the time. With a read, for instance, if we knew villian would chase with any two hearts, this becomes a different hand. On stars I don't see as many donks playing this badly though.

I would probably bet/call. Unless you think youre opponent will bet a busted flush draw if checked to. In that case, maybe check/call. I'm not folding. If he played his set or two pair like that, which seems unlikely, then so be it.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Check/call. You give up value from a T, but you gain value from hearts and you save money against a boat. You probably get the same from trips but sometimes he might get frisky and raise a bet with trips which you wont like calling.

[Mercman572]

check call. let him bluff

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
you don't think a set bets/raises anywhere before the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Completely depends on read here. Would I, yes? Against a thinking stars player at this level, when hero almost full pots the turn, with the texture of the flop, then he may believe there's a good possibility that he's behind. I can see a set flat calling the flop, even if it's draw heavy, but the turn may have confused him. Is a thinking stars player going to limp JQ, or call a flush draw on the turn here, no. My river action completely depends on my read. If I think he's a donk, I'll check/call hoping he'll bluff. If he's a thinking crafty player, I bet/fold.

[AceHiStation]

I think you have to call this. You only have to be right ~36% of the time for you to be correct. I could see a donk playing 9Ts, JJ, or a missed flush draw. But I'm going to go ahead and take a shot in the dark and guess specifics. Villain flips up A /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and hero takes down a monster. This is where you all begin applauding. Just kidding, just a read/guess. Interesting hand though.

Later,
-Ace

[ QUOTE ]
Most likely you're beat on this board here though unless he's mega donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

No matter what, this guy is a mega donk, right? If he's ahead he either limped UTG w/ T6 or 96, or he checked his set on a super draw heavy board.

Obviously we can't be entirely comfortable w/ the river call, but I can't see folding. I'm very interested to see results.

[PokerFink]

At the time, I felt like he had a piece of the board and not hearts, so I went for a value bet.

When he raised, I said "oops." But getting almost 3:1 on my call, I felt I coulden't let it go. He shows 99 and MHING.

I felt like a donk and figured that the check/call would be the standard 2+2 line and that I messed up, but I guess it's pretty close considering the responses.

Thanks for the comments everyone.

[ QUOTE ]
If I think he's a donk, I'll check/call hoping he'll bluff. If he's a thinking crafty player, I bet/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this completely backwards? A donk is more likely to have checked the set, or to have limped T6 or 96 UTG. A crafty player seems more likely to bluff his busted flush when he senses weakness. Care to explain your logic?

I guess I'm thinking c/c either way.

[EverettKings]

When he raises you on the river you are very rarely ahead. Unless he's just dumb, what hand could he have here? Noone bluffs at you here, the question is if he could have any worse hand that he thinks is good. I can't think of any. I mean your pot odds are goot but no so phenominal that you can't turn them down.

Check/call is a lot better for a the reasons stated. A check call loses the least to a sloplayed monster and wins the most from a missed draw. There aren't many hands he could have here that you need to value bet against. Maybe AT or whatever, but who knows maybe AT will bet for value himself. Even if he wont, the value you lose to AT is much less than the value you gain from other hands.

Everett

[swolfe]

A

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
A

[/ QUOTE ]

[scrapperdog]

[ QUOTE ]

I felt like a donk and figured that the check/call would be the standard 2+2 line and that I messed up, but I guess it's pretty close considering the responses.

[/ QUOTE ]

I honestly dont feel it is that close. CC would be my choice, keep the pot down if you are beat, give someone a chance to bluff. I dont see much of a point in betting this unless you think someone has a high overpair that they cant get away from, which given the action pre flop is pretty doubtful.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I think he's a donk, I'll check/call hoping he'll bluff. If he's a thinking crafty player, I bet/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't this completely backwards? A donk is more likely to have checked the set, or to have limped T6 or 96 UTG. A crafty player seems more likely to bluff his busted flush when he senses weakness. Care to explain your logic?

I guess I'm thinking c/c either way.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a question of what game level theory is my opponent thinking at. When I say crafty I'm implying that a good player understands that he's taking a risk on a draw heavy board, knowing that you'll think that he's drawing, in order to win a big pot. This is a great spot for that kind of play, and 'most' stars players are thinking players.

I don't consider a 'crafty' player to be someone who will bluff a busted flush draw. Any donk can do that.

Now considering that I just read hero (poster) say this was his first hand at the table, this becomes quite unlikely that a crafty player would make such a move. This hand becomes much more wind tunelled where I'd check/call the river.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
At the time, I felt like he had a piece of the board and not hearts, so I went for a value bet.

When he raised, I said "oops." But getting almost 3:1 on my call, I felt I coulden't let it go. He shows 99 and MHING.

I felt like a donk and figured that the check/call would be the standard 2+2 line and that I messed up, but I guess it's pretty close considering the responses.

Thanks for the comments everyone.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stars = more crafty players and you have to think a little deeper = check/call
Party = very few crafty players = bet/call

What was your impression of his play after this hand(after watching him play more)? Donk or crafty?

[flyangler]

:grunching:
I believe I would bet for value. 1/2 pot sized would be my tendancy. Not too much so as not to scare them off. I would be hoping they would call. A re-raise would bother me though I don't think I could lay this down.
I am not too scared of the 6, unless someone was really slowplaying a set (unlikely) then your hand is good here.

Please feel free to criticize this post at will.


Edit: Now that I have the results I feel like a Donk too. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Most likely you're beat on this board here though unless he's mega donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

No matter what, this guy is a mega donk, right? If he's ahead he either limped UTG w/ T6 or 96, or he checked his set on a super draw heavy board.

Obviously we can't be entirely comfortable w/ the river call, but I can't see folding. I'm very interested to see results.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you played on stars at 200nl or above? I have. You're thinking is quite backwards for this level. Most people understand the basics of the game. They understand draw heavy boards and they know how to maximize value on these kinds of flops or fold small pots when they get outdraws. Villian played this hand perfectly for a crafty player imo. He made it look like a busted flush draw on the river, whic was his plan right from the beginning (if I had to bet).

[AceHiStation]

I'm curious if villain reraises all-in with an A on river... I'm willing to bet he does. You just got unlucky on river, money would have gone in anyways. I think he played the flop/turn pretty poorly. Letting the flush draw come is awful IMO.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious if villain reraises all-in with an A on river... I'm willing to bet he does. You just got unlucky on river, money would have gone in anyways. I think he played the flop/turn pretty poorly. Letting the flush draw come is awful IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

He played it great imo. Hero is potting each street, so if hero is betting a draw, he's doing villians work. Villian gets to build a big pot with position, and push the river on a non-heart, which will likely get paid off. I'd play it the same.

I'd rather win a big pot with this flop texture, rather than win a small one. Villian likely puts hero on smaller set.

[flyangler]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you played on stars at 200nl or above? I have. You're thinking is quite backwards for this level. Most people understand the basics of the game. They understand draw heavy boards and they know how to maximize value on these kinds of flops or fold small pots when they get outdraws. Villian played this hand perfectly for a crafty player imo. He made it look like a busted flush draw on the river, whic was his plan right from the beginning (if I had to bet).

[/ QUOTE ]

Crafty or not this is simply spewing until he hits his miracle 6. He was beat postflop (until the river) and just didn't know it. Slowplaying 99 from UTG is very weak IMO. I would have at least CR the turn if I were villain. I don't think Villain was thinking about possibly being beat at any time in the hand and will probably pat himself on the back for being so skilled a player. Giving hero the opportunity to draw (assuming villain put him on a draw) is just asking for trouble.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Crafty or not this is simply spewing until he hits his miracle 6. He was beat postflop (until the river) and just didn't know it. Slowplaying 99 from UTG is very weak IMO. I would have at least CR the turn if I were villain. I don't think Villain was thinking about possibly being beat at any time in the hand and will probably pat himself on the back for being so skilled a player. Giving hero the opportunity to draw (assuming villain put him on a draw) is just asking for trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]
This would be a good post if you weren't overlooking the fact that villain was getting correct odds to draw at every point and that he played the hand perfectly, by the Fundamental Theorem of Poker. Oops!

[GrunchCan]

I'll overbet the pot here. Bet an even $100.

[GrunchCan]

Why are we considering a fold here? What hands are we afraid of?

[PokerFink]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll overbet the pot here. Bet an even $100.

[/ QUOTE ]

What can reasonably call an overbet (that I beat) besides A6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif?

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll overbet the pot here. Bet an even $100.

[/ QUOTE ]

What can reasonably call an overbet (that I beat) besides A6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any hand that has been calling you all along that isn't a busted draw. A busted draw won't call anything. T9 might call your overbet becasue he thinks you're trying to buy the pot with your busted draw, or otherwise senses weakness in your out-of-the-blue overbet.

A standard value line here is to take small chops at the river with a bet you're pretty sure your opponent will call. Something like 1/4-1/2 pot, in many cases. And that's what I do most of the time, too. But I'm always looking for an opportunity to try to make a big score. Given that you surely have the best hand, and that there is an obvious busted draw on board, this could be that chance. Your opponent will fold to your big overbet often. But he doesn't have to call very often at all in order to make overbets more +EV than little chop bets.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Have you played on stars at 200nl or above? I have. You're thinking is quite backwards for this level. Most people understand the basics of the game. They understand draw heavy boards and they know how to maximize value on these kinds of flops or fold small pots when they get outdraws. Villian played this hand perfectly for a crafty player imo. He made it look like a busted flush draw on the river, whic was his plan right from the beginning (if I had to bet).

[/ QUOTE ]

Crafty or not this is simply spewing until he hits his miracle 6. He was beat postflop (until the river) and just didn't know it. Slowplaying 99 from UTG is very weak IMO. I would have at least CR the turn if I were villain. I don't think Villain was thinking about possibly being beat at any time in the hand and will probably pat himself on the back for being so skilled a player. Giving hero the opportunity to draw (assuming villain put him on a draw) is just asking for trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know how you think this is spewing. Villian thinks he's ahead, but perhaps on the turn he second guesses himself. Either way he played the hand perfectly. I can't explain myself any clearer than I have. If you don't understand then ask another question.

Perhaps I can elucidate this a bit more for you. Let's say that villian raises the turn as an example. With the texture of this flop(and considering a non-raised multi-way pot), he's folding out any hand other than an underset and maybe two pair. If he is indeed against an underset ot two pair, then he will get it in on the river regardless. Any other hand, like 87 has him beat, and a flush draw is of little consequent if hero is betting for him. Study game level theory.

[scrapperdog]

I agree no possible way is this spewing. He is gonna fill up 1/3 of the time IF and that is a big if he does not have the best hand already.

[scrapperdog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll overbet the pot here. Bet an even $100.

[/ QUOTE ]

What can reasonably call an overbet (that I beat) besides A6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any hand that has been calling you all along that isn't a busted draw. A busted draw won't call anything. T9 might call your overbet becasue he thinks you're trying to buy the pot with your busted draw, or otherwise senses weakness in your out-of-the-blue overbet.

A standard value line here is to take small chops at the river with a bet you're pretty sure your opponent will call. Something like 1/4-1/2 pot, in many cases. And that's what I do most of the time, too. But I'm always looking for an opportunity to try to make a big score. Given that you surely have the best hand, and that there is an obvious busted draw on board, this could be that chance. Your opponent will fold to your big overbet often. But he doesn't have to call very often at all in order to make overbets more +EV than little chop bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about all those times they would have bluffed the river if you had checked and all those times that you are beat? You make more money here in the long run by check calling. What is the purpose of making an overbet if the only person that can call is one that has you beat? This is not about if you have the best hand... this is about if you have the best hand when you are raised... and the villan is either gonna fold or re-raise you here to an overbet, thus the overbet does nothing except get the hands that would have bluffed you to fold.

Of all the options I have heard the overbet is without a doubt the worst IMO. If the guy did limp with pocked JJ and was gonna call a half pot bet well you blew him out of the water and pretty much assured the only person you are getting action from has you beat. You have a strait with a paired board and someone showing interest in the pot.. that is not the time I overbet (and I do overbet a lot).

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
Against a thinking stars player at this level, when hero almost full pots the turn, with the texture of the flop, then he may believe there's a good possibility that he's behind. I can see a set flat calling the flop, even if it's draw heavy, but the turn may have confused him. Is a thinking stars player going to limp JQ, or call a flush draw on the turn here, no. My river action completely depends on my read. If I think he's a donk, I'll check/call hoping he'll bluff. If he's a thinking crafty player, I bet/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This begs the question... would a good player call with a set if he believes hero has the straight? He's only got 10 outs on the turn and calls nearly a pot sized bet... and, he can't expect to necessarily get paid off if the board pairs. So, the difficulty here is that a 'good' Stars players might already be out of the hand.

I also think a crafty player might have air and be planning to bet if either the board pairs or a heart hits.

[kurto]

He only has 10 outs on the turn. Unless I'm so tired after a long day at work that I'm not thinking straight, I don't think he does have the correct odds.

[Bukem_]

Not too crazy about the size of the river bet.

Bet more for value, check call I guess if stars really this weak tight, or you think he on a draw. Against 99% of players on 99% of sites I'm trying to get more money in on this river.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
He only has 10 outs on the turn. Unless I'm so tired after a long day at work that I'm not thinking straight, I don't think he does have the correct odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) Villian doesn't know for sure he's behind.
2) Hero looks like he likes his hand, which leads to...
3) Implied odds.
4) Position.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Against a thinking stars player at this level, when hero almost full pots the turn, with the texture of the flop, then he may believe there's a good possibility that he's behind. I can see a set flat calling the flop, even if it's draw heavy, but the turn may have confused him. Is a thinking stars player going to limp JQ, or call a flush draw on the turn here, no. My river action completely depends on my read. If I think he's a donk, I'll check/call hoping he'll bluff. If he's a thinking crafty player, I bet/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This begs the question... would a good player call with a set if he believes hero has the straight? He's only got 10 outs on the turn and calls nearly a pot sized bet... and, he can't expect to necessarily get paid off if the board pairs. So, the difficulty here is that a 'good' Stars players might already be out of the hand.

I also think a crafty player might have air and be planning to bet if either the board pairs or a heart hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, hero is in small blind. It's very concievable that he has two pair or a smaller set. Villian doesn't know he has the proverable nuts (7,8).

1) On the turn, if someone is still betting pretty strong, you can make a decent judgement that you will get paid off.
2) Texture of the flop says hero has to have either two pair, or set. While JJ is remote.
3) Villian is likely ahead.

Villian isn't calling thinking, I'm definately beat, I better pair the board. If he doesn't fill up, I think he just calls the river, or if it's checked, he makes a 1/2 pot bet.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
You have a strait with a paired board and someone showing interest in the pot.. that is not the time I overbet (and I do overbet a lot).

[/ QUOTE ]

You think the opponent has 96? T6? I don't. Maybe UTG open-limped 96 (not T6), but even in the unusual case when they did, they put a raise in on the flop or turn. Not overbetting becasue you are afraid the opponent has the flopped 2-pair that river a full house is MUB, in my opinion. Hero has the best hand the vast majority of the time here.

As far as "blowing out JJ", I already discussed this. Sometimes they'll fold. Probably more often than they will call, probably. But they only have to call the $100 bet 1 time for every 4 times they call a $25 bet to make it worthwhile. I think they call more often than that.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Villian doesn't know for sure he's behind.


[/ QUOTE ]
I agree this is a consideration. To me, its the only think that makes villain play acceptable. (though I'm still raising with my set)

[ QUOTE ]
2) Hero looks like he likes his hand, which leads to...
3) Implied odds.


[/ QUOTE ]

IF villain was pretty certain he was behind, I don't like his call. Clearly if he could put the hero on a straight (or, even better, 7-8s)... the only thing that will slow the hero down is if the board pairs... I don't know that he can count of getting paid off against another good player?

[scrapperdog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have a strait with a paired board and someone showing interest in the pot.. that is not the time I overbet (and I do overbet a lot).

[/ QUOTE ]

You think the opponent has 96? T6? I don't. Maybe UTG open-limped 96 (not T6), but even in the unusual case when they did, they put a raise in on the flop or turn. Not overbetting becasue you are afraid the opponent has the flopped 2-pair that river a full house is MUB, in my opinion. Hero has the best hand the vast majority of the time here.

As far as "blowing out JJ", I already discussed this. Sometimes they'll fold. Probably more often than they will call, probably. But they only have to call the $100 bet 1 time for every 4 times they call a $25 bet to make it worthwhile. I think they call more often than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100% that the hero has the best hand the vast majority of the time. That has absolutly nothing to do with if this is a good overbet or not...

What matters is who is gonna call or re-raise an overbet. Not a hand you can beat the vast majority of the time. If you check and call, then there are lots of hands you can beat, mostly busted flushes and straits who decided to bluff the river. If you overbet it yourself then you pretty much have killed any action on hands you can beat, and promise you will be stacked by hands that will beat you, they are not gonna try and milk it with an overbet coming at them. Again, this has nothing to do with how often the hero has the best hand....or if I am afraid of a 9-6. It has to do with how often you have the best hand when you overbet it and you get something other than a fold ... which in my opinion is way less than half the time making this a bad move.

[GrunchCan]

Ok. But I disagree. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I think the opponenrt will put you on a steal attempt often enough to make it a winning play. But we can agree to disagree.

[scrapperdog]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok. But I disagree. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I think the opponenrt will put you on a steal attempt often enough to make it a winning play. But we can agree to disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

BTW I like the overbet on a raised pot with a few callers, but not on a 5-way limped one like this one was. Raised pot = probably overpair= call with worse hand.

bet/call

looks like a heart draw, most river bets would be a bluff IMO.

[scrapperdog]

[ QUOTE ]
bet/call

looks like a heart draw, most river bets would be a bluff IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok for the last time ... someone explain to me what betting into a busted flush draw would do? Make him fold? You already have the best hand it dont matter if he folds or not. If you check that might induce a bluff. Am I missing something here?

[orange]

[ QUOTE ]
bet/call

looks like a heart draw, most river bets would be a bluff IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's refering to OPs hand, as in, OP has a /images/graemlins/heart.gif draw, not the villan. (Referring to a bluff on a missed /images/graemlins/heart.gif draw that will more likely be called). I could be wrong though.

[scrapperdog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet/call

looks like a heart draw, most river bets would be a bluff IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's refering to OPs hand, as in, OP has a /images/graemlins/heart.gif draw, not the villan. (Referring to a bluff on a missed /images/graemlins/heart.gif draw that will more likely be called). I could be wrong though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok that makes more sense, thanks.