Harringtons Law of bluffing

[EMcWilliams]

Was just re-reading some HoH vol 1, when I came across Harringtons law of bluffing: There is at LEAST a 10% chance your opponent is bluffing.

Do you think this holds true, or is a little over-zealous of a estimate?

[soko]

Do you think, in a tournament where the object is to win the most chips over a limited number of hands that there is less than a 10% chance that an opponent can be bluffing in any given hand? You can never know exactly what an opponent is holding, only a list of possible hands he could be holding. If you fold a marginal hands getting 1:10 odds then you are playing way too weak.

[elmitchbo]

based simply on personal experience in the time since i first read that i have com eto believe that it absolutely true. and i would stress that he says at least 10%. depending on the situation it may very well be higher than that.

[PJS]

I would also agree with the statement, although I think 10% can increase or decrease depending on what the standard of players are, entry fees, and prize money etc.

If we make a comparison, I would say the bluffing pattern of players online is a lot higher. I would venture to guess 20%-30% of large raises are total bluffs trying to steal pots. In a casino or poker room, I think that number drops down to 15%-20%. The key word in Harringtons statement is "at least 10%" and he is insinuating it to be a higher number. In Volume 2, he goes more in depth to situations where bluffs would make good plays and how to recognize them. In my opinion, Harrington is a percentage player. He tries to read a situation and determine how good a hand the player could have based on a variety of factors. In my opinion, Volume 2 is a better read.

Speaking personally, I guess it depends on what you call a bluff.

If you mean your classic "I've got nothing, but I'm gonna bet/raise anyway", then I do that less than 10% of the time. At the stakes (low) I play at and with the players (fishy) I play with, it just doesn't pay to do it very often.

But with those, plus semi-bluffs, plus continuation bets, plus a few other tricks, I go over 10%.

As for my opponents, they probably bluff more than I do, though it's sometimes hard to tell. Maybe they really do believe third pair is the best hand... /images/graemlins/cool.gif