Set over set. When do you lay this down?

[rtrombone]

Another hand from some time ago. I'd like to hear what people think.

Bellagio 15-30.

Decent game. Some solid players, some loose aggressive. I get KK in one of the blinds. I think 3 limpers, then the guy to my immediate right (RHO), a solid player, raises. I 3-bet. Limpers all cold call. RHO 4-bets.

Now at this point, I'm pretty damn sure he has AA. He must recognize that I have high raising standards, and he apparently doesn't mind the limpers one bit.

I just call. Everyone else calls. Flop: A K x. RHO bets, I raise. A few cold calls. RHO 3-bets. I call, everyone calls. Turn is a blank. RHO bets, call, call. River is a blank. RHO bets, only I call. He takes it down with top set.

To this day I feel I should have mucked to his 3-bet. Sometimes you simply have to trust your read, right? As big as the pot was, it wasn't offering the correct odds for a one-outer, so the only question is whether the chance that my read is wrong justifies calling him down. Has anyone made this kind of laydown only to find that they threw away the best hand?

[J.A.Sucker]

I would never lay down a set in this situation. This is just one of those situations where you're gonna lose a few bets. Why couldn't he have AK here? This is doubly true if he can get you to think about mucking KK on a A-K-x flop, when he 3 bets you on the flop after 4 betting you preflop. Mathematically, there is 3 AK's left in the deck and 3 AA, so you're even money to be killing him here. I think you did fine - hell, I might've gotten spunky on the turn as well, but I'm Just Another Sucker.

[Pot-A]

Not really sure why you raised the turn. If you're buying information you paid too much; you went ahead and called him anyway. Seems like you raise only if you're planning to fold to a reraise.

If I strongly suspected AA on the flop I'd just call the turn.

The other day I flopped a straight (4 bets), and raised the bettor when the third heart came on the turn. When he reraised me I folded, only to discover, moments later, he had a set. Still not sure if he was level 1 or three of the "I think he thinks I think..." loop, but I got it wrong in any case.

[elysium]

hi rtrom
there's no way that you can save those bets unless you know your opponent well, and know that he never would 4 bet without the rockets; rare.

can you ever muck a set of K's here? no.

[John Ho]

Throw it away on the flop for 1 bet.

[mike l.]

[Ray Zee]

depending on the player, john could be very right here.