($10+$1) Is this worth a coin flip?

Is this worth a coin flip at this stage in the tournament in order to double up and be ni with a chance of getting ITM:
($10 + $1) 100/200 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL)
Table Table 67104 (Real Money) -- Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: CO (1165)
Seat 3: button (1064)
Seat 4: SB (490)
Seat 5: HERO (653)
Seat 6: UTG (1568)
Seat 7: UTG+1 (845)
Seat 8: MP1 (1800)
Seat 9: MP2(415)
SB posts small blind (50)
HERO posts big blind (100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 9h, As ]
UTG folds.
UTG+1 raises (200) to 200
MP1 folds.
MP2calls (200)
CO folds.
button folds.
SB folds.
HERO raises (553) to 653
HERO is all-In.
UTG+1 raises (645) to 845
UTG+1 is all-In.
MP2calls (215)
MP2is all-In.
Creating Main Pot with $1295
Creating Side Pot 1 with $476 with HERO
Creating Side Pot 2 with $192 with UTG+1

I'm going to say no, simply because you are most likely significantly worse than a coinflip.

The only hands you play well against are ace-even raggier and pairs below 8.

[SammyKid11]

Well, first of all, this isn't a coin flip...you're part of a three-way pot.

Second of all, with a raise AND a call, I should think your A9 is probably behind, possibly far behind. With absolutely no FE against two opponents...I fold this even though you only have 3xBB. At least look for a situation where you're only racing against one player.

[Insty]

Fold this twice.

[tigerite]

This is possibly even worse than your line with QTo.

[Damian UK]

Hero has 6BB with A9, facing a min raise and people are saying fold?

Why would villian min raise? AA or KK springs to mind, or some other PP or AK and he hopes people think he has AA/KK

I wouldn't throw this away and would push like the OP did

Just my thoughts

Damian

[tigerite]

A min raise and a call

For god's sake, it's A9, it's crap.

[kevkev60614]

[ QUOTE ]
A min raise and a call

For god's sake, it's A9, it's crap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tiger is rite.

[Damian UK]

my bad - thought he pushed before the 2nd caller

I would stil be inclined to push even with that, given my short stack (but hey thats prolly why I am still playing at this level!)

I wouldn't be concerned with the smooth call
- I wouldn't be suprised to see them having J10s, any 2 broadway etc, however thoughts on why he/I shouldn't make this move are most appreciated

Thanks

Damian

[downtown]

[ QUOTE ]
thoughts on why he/I shouldn't make this move are most appreciated

[/ QUOTE ]

You're likely dominated and facing a PP, or dominated in two spots. You have little to no Folding Equity (FE), so you can expect to have to "race" two opponents, and your equity in the pot is likely to be less than 33%.

[tigerite]

Look. I know these are fish. But a min raise (for 1/4 of his stack) UTG+1 and a call (for 1/2 his stack) in mid position is going to be "any two broadway" how often exactly?

Come on, look at the whole hand, not just your pretty ace.

[splashpot]

A9 sucks in this spot even without the cold caller. This is much worse than a coin flip.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
my bad - thought he pushed before the 2nd caller

I would stil be inclined to push even with that, given my short stack (but hey thats prolly why I am still playing at this level!)

I wouldn't be concerned with the smooth call
- I wouldn't be suprised to see them having J10s, any 2 broadway etc, however thoughts on why he/I shouldn't make this move are most appreciated

Thanks

Damian

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure I would push this even if I was acting before the caller in this scenario. NO FE here so I want to be first in.

Maybe if 2-3 limpers come in and I am in blinds I might give this a whirl...

but this is the kind of fold any semi-winning player NEEDS to make all day long.

Put your opponents on any two that have both flush and straight possibilities, any pair, any two broadway, any suited ace, then remove AA-JJ, AKs, AQs, AK from their range. Then you're a tiny favorite. And that range is unrealistically good for you.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this worth a coin flip at this stage in the tournament in order to double up and be ni with a chance of getting ITM:


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Dealt to HERO [ 9h, As ]


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 raises (200) to 200

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
MP2calls (200)

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue"> By the end of your tenure here, you are either going to love us or hate us. Let's start this exercise by considering the number of hands that A9o fears. AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, AJ, AT. 9 hands. And then you're a coinflip against all pairs, and a slight favorite against any two card combos above a 9.

OK, the next statement is almost nearly fact. This is precisely the hand range of the two players that have voluntarily put money into the pot. Be sure to read into my comments clearly. I'm not saying that you can't win this pot, because any two cards can win. But your hand is very vulnerable.

I think you're missing a big understanding of NL poker that can be summed up into one concept. The Gap Concept. I highly recommend you go and read about it. I think that Sklansky discusses it in TPFAP.

Scuba </font>

[Damian UK]

Thanks for all the responses - I can see from SC's response why you are all saying fold it, it is vulnerable because of the range of cards the villians probably have and because there are 2 of them to beat.

OK point taken, will endeavour to remember it

Cheers all

Damian
(the one without the gay name, unlike Scuba...... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/cool.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)


<font color="blue"> By the end of your tenure here, you are either going to love us or hate us. Let's start this exercise by considering the number of hands that A9o fears. AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, AJ, AT. 9 hands. And then you're a coinflip against all pairs, and a slight favorite against any two card combos above a 9.

OK, the next statement is almost nearly fact. This is precisely the hand range of the two players that have voluntarily put money into the pot. Be sure to read into my comments clearly. I'm not saying that you can't win this pot, because any two cards can win. But your hand is very vulnerable.

Scuba </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

[Scuba Chuck]

Damian
(the one without the gay name, unlike Scuba...... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/cool.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)


[/ QUOTE ]

Your name is still gay even though it's spelled wrong.