Big mistake, Play the board

[rkiray]

UB 3/6 game.

I'm in mp with A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif K /forums/images/icons/heart.gif folded to me, I raise, folded to button who reraises, sb caps it. BB folds. 3 of us see the flop.

Flop : 4 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 6 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/club.gif

sb bets, I call, button raises, both call

Turn : 5 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 6 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/club.gif

sb checks, I check button bets, sb raises, I fold

River: 3 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 5 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 6 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/club.gif

This appears to be a huge mistake. I overlooked the oesd on the board. I guess I should have said I have 8 probably good outs plus possible overcard outs (probably tainted). 12 big bets in pot, laying me 6-1. Of course the board played. Button had KK and I think he played fine. sb had 99 and played like an idiot (almost as poorly as I did). I don't remember making this type of mistake before.

[dirty_dan]

I don't think the fold was a mistake. If you call you're risking 2 bets, possibly more if there's a reraise, in order to take 1/3 of the pot. So you weren't playing for 12BB, you were playing for 4BB. That's 2:1 odds. Easy fold.

[rkiray]

O h yeah, you are correct. I feel much better. Thanks.

[dirty_dan]

Also I don't necessarily agree that the SB played like an idiot. While I don't like his preflop cap, he flopped an overpair and a gutshot to the nut straight. He pretty sure that you and the button have big cards and that the flop missed you both. He bet out, was raised and called. The button raise could mean a high pair or he might be pushing AK.

The turn is a scare card for both you and the button, but the SB still figures to be behind. This is a perfect time for a checkraise. If it's checked through then he saves a bet and draws to the best hand for free. If someone bets then he semibluff raises and if he doesn't win it outright, can pick up the pot if the river is a blank.

[rkiray]

He didn't flop a gutshot, he flopped a runner runner to non-nut straight (9T would be nut straight, but I admit that is an unlikely had to play given preflop action). He turned a gut shot to non-nuts straight. I think in his case he should be putting the button on a big pair (I thought he might have QQ, and also thought he might be pushing AK since my AK made it less likely that he had AA or KK but sb didn't know what I had). I also thought there was a chance button had AA or KK. I just think with this much action sb should have thought he was behind.

[dirty_dan]

Wow. I screwed that one up. That'll teach me to post while at work. I must have been looking at the turn with the gutshot, but I'm not sure how I came up with the nuts. Thanks for the catch. Always good to know that it's not just during my hands that I grossly misread the board.

[rkiray]

No problem. I do admit your arguments show the sb wasn't quite as bad as I thought. One other small comment. I didn't consider the turn card a scare card. I couldn't imagine anyone having a hand with an 8 or 3 in it given the preflop action. I was wrong here, since the sb capped with 99 he probably would have done it with 88. I hadn't been at the table long and didn't really have a read on anyone yet. I also have played much more at Paradise than UB so know more players there. Also my database doesn't work at UB. /forums/images/icons/mad.gif

I folded because I didn't think 6-1 was good enough odds for two overcards especially since there was a good chance that the hands against could either beat or tie my hand even if I hit. If the sb would not have check raised and I got 11-1 to call the button bet, I would have done it. I think I need about 9-1 here. Anyone agree or disagree?