View Full Version : I misplay the river.
Jeff W
10-21-2005, 01:36 AM
Villain is 36/20/1.8 over 1843 hands.
Hold'em (6 handed)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, MP calls, Hero calls.
Flop: (13.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP calls, Hero calls.
Turn: (8.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG folds, MP calls.
River: (15.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>.
Danenania
10-21-2005, 01:50 AM
I think you misplayed the turn too. Why 3-bet?
Jerkass333
10-21-2005, 01:52 AM
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I think you misplayed the turn too. Why 3-bet?
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I think because he's putting villain on another ace and is freerolling with the Ah.
Jeff W
10-21-2005, 02:02 AM
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I think you misplayed the turn too. Why 3-bet?
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I figured I was freerolling w/ the Ah and both players were unlikely to have a 6.
Also, if the bettor has an overpair with a heart he will have to call two cold.
El Ishmael
10-21-2005, 02:16 AM
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I think you misplayed the turn too. Why 3-bet?
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I figured I was freerolling w/ the Ah and both players were unlikely to have a 6.
Also, if the bettor has an overpair with a heart he will have to call two cold.
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Why do you want him to call two cold drawing dead though? Won't he often get the picture and get out?
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I think you misplayed the turn too. Why 3-bet?
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I figured I was freerolling w/ the Ah and both players were unlikely to have a 6.
Also, if the bettor has an overpair with a heart he will have to call two cold.
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If that's your reasoning on the turn, how did you misplay the river? It looks fine to me.
Jeff W
10-21-2005, 02:25 AM
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If that's your reasoning on the turn, how did you misplay the river?
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No worse hand calls me.
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If that's your reasoning on the turn, how did you misplay the river?
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No worse hand calls me.
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I see your point, but I've been called plenty of times by a 36/20 holding a set or what not. If you can't figure anyone for a 6, and a guy with stats like that would have capped the turn with his big flush, what else is there that beats you?
Jeff W
10-21-2005, 02:36 AM
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If you can't figure anyone for a 6, and a guy with stats like that would have capped the turn with his big flush, what else is there that beats you?
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Very doubtful he's playing a set this way. At any rate I have to be ahead more than 50% of the time when called and I'm not.
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If you can't figure anyone for a 6, and a guy with stats like that would have capped the turn with his big flush, what else is there that beats you?
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Very doubtful he's playing a set this way. At any rate I have to be ahead more than 50% of the time when called and I'm not.
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Let's say out of the times you get called....
You tie 79%
You win 11%
You lose 10%
Is that worth a value bet EV wise?
Jeff W
10-21-2005, 02:45 AM
[ QUOTE ]
You tie 79%
You win 11%
You lose 10%
Is that worth a value bet EV wise?
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If we ignore having to pay off a checkraise from a better hand, then easily yes. If we don't, it's probably pretty close because I don't think I get check-raised too often.
I don't win more often than I lose when I bet, so it's a moot point.
Wow. I played a hand very similar to this less than an hour ago. I raise a 40/10 MP open-limper with AQ from SB. Board is 2345 with three hearts, I have the Ah. Bet-raise-3-bet he calls. I stupidly bet the river blank and he calls. F*cker had Q6s (not hearts).
It's a bad bet because best case scenario in the vast majority of circumstances we're chopping and we sometimes lose to a timid flush or an x6. Hopefully this is something we do once and it is seared into our consciousness - I don't want to do this again.
El Ishmael
10-21-2005, 02:51 AM
Much different though being OOP, yeah? Since you don't need to be ahead 50%.
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Much different though being OOP, yeah? Since you don't need to be ahead 50%.
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A bit different OOP, but fundamentally the same issue - you're just not getting called by a worse hand, and you're never folding a better hand. The bet has no positive expectation.
Danenania
10-21-2005, 03:15 AM
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I think you misplayed the turn too. Why 3-bet?
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I figured I was freerolling w/ the Ah and both players were unlikely to have a 6.
Also, if the bettor has an overpair with a heart he will have to call two cold.
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66 or 67s are possibilities for MP though you're right of course that there are many more combinations of Aces. He could also have a flush already.
Did you have stats on UTG? If he's bad then the chance that he calls 2 bets with an overpair heart draw are balanced by keeping him around when he has a non-heart overpair or worse.
Last point is that you will make more money on average when a heart hits the river after just calling the turn. MP is aggressive so he isn't automatically going to check a straight or non nut flush just because a 4th heart comes down. And he's also loose so he's very likely to call your raise.
I think the best play might depend a lot on UTG's likelihood of continuing with a hand that has no hearts in it.
Justin A
10-21-2005, 04:09 AM
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I think you misplayed the turn too. Why 3-bet?
[/ QUOTE ]
I figured I was freerolling w/ the Ah and both players were unlikely to have a 6.
Also, if the bettor has an overpair with a heart he will have to call two cold.
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Why do you want him to call two cold drawing dead though? Won't he often get the picture and get out?
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What do you mean why do we want him to call drawing dead? Him calling two cold is just giving Jeff money.
El Ishmael
10-21-2005, 04:11 AM
Yeah I misread his initial point. Disregard that.
Schizo
10-21-2005, 08:01 AM
Ok, I totally understand the freeroll 3 bet. However, I don't see how you can be so sure MP doesn't have 2 hearts. I mean what % of the time do you think he will have the flush here?
TStoneMBD
10-21-2005, 08:30 AM
good post jeff. turn 3bet freerolling is good and i like the river check. depends what your perception of the villain is. is there a chance he raised the turn with a set? would he really fold a set for 1 bet on the river? probably not to both of those so there are really no worse hands that are calling.
Schizo
10-31-2005, 05:35 AM
Bump
Schizo
11-01-2005, 07:15 AM
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Ok, I totally understand the freeroll 3 bet. However, I don't see how you can be so sure MP doesn't have 2 hearts. I mean what % of the time do you think he will have the flush here?
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bump x2
Since Hero holds the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif exactly which hands is Villain raising UTG and capping with pre-flop that contain two hearts?
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