Overcall City

[Lmn55d]

SB: 39/10/.6 AF after 70 hands
CO: 65/27/1
BB: 40/.9/something

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls, MP calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, MP calls, SB calls.

River: (12 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, MP calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 16 BB

all 4 eights?

[Lmn55d]

you really think sb is holding an 8?

[Jerkass333]

If I were playing this, I would have put SB on decent overs that missed (so AK, AQ) and I wouldn't count on him to call the river (clearly I was wrong, but that was what I was thinking during the hand). I would think that MP has some sort of pair (A7 maybe or scared 1010) and is calling one bet on the river. With his stats, you couldn't say BB doesn't have a 9 but it looks to me like he flopped a decent had like a set or 2-pair and wasn't able to raise the turn or has another 8. With a 0.9 pfr (no af?) I'll assume he's rather loose passive and the board is pretty scary on the river so he needs a decent hand to be betting. With at least 1 likely call behind you I like going for the overcall here too. nh.

[waffle]

I play it the same. A turn raise is too likely to blow the other two out of the hand. After seeing the turn action, I'd think that they are happy to call along for 1 more on the river but not two.

I tried putting them on hands:

SB looks like a weaky desperately hoping his overpair is good. Either that or really dumb/stubborn with AK. I'm having a hard time putting MP on a hand, but maybe it's something lame like A5, A6, or 33. And BB has an 8 or a 9.

Am I close?

[college_boy]

perfect

[Jeff W]

Why not raise the flop?

Turn and river look fine.

[TStoneMBD]

id raise the flop, but calling is really close. some thoughts to swing it to a raise for me: hope to knock SB off a bigger ace and maybe take down the pot unimproved. the player behind you doesnt add much to your equity and id rather try to knock a ten out in case you hit an 8 and its good. free card value as well. SB is very passive postflop so he will probably go into checkcall mode with an overpair on this board.

[stigmata]

I raise the flop.

[cartman]

I usually raise this flop but I'm sure you didn't for a reason. I think the turn and the river are perfect.

Why is calling the flop better here?

Thanks,
Cartman

[bank]

I agree with the flop call but it's close. Tstone: I don't think the sb is folding an unimproved better ace enough of the time to swing this to a raise.

[Lmn55d]

I was thinking that I'd be 3bet by the sb a ton of the time with an overpair, but I guess you're right that he might not considering his AF is so low. This is only after a small number of hands though. There's no way sb folds a bigger ace to one bet. I agree that a raise is close though.

[tansoku]

[ QUOTE ]
I was thinking that I'd be 3bet by the sb a ton of the time with an overpair, but I guess you're right that he might not considering his AF is so low. This is only after a small number of hands though. There's no way sb folds a bigger ace to one bet. I agree that a raise is close though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you need to raise this flop primarily for value.
35% equity but only putting in 25% of the money.
You want sb to 3bet and hopefully everyone else comes along for the ride, which seems likely because CO looks loose enough and BB already called 2 pflop, and I doubt he folds for another 2 after putting 1 in on the flop when SB 3bets.
Is there another reason why this would be a close decision?

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you need to raise this flop primarily for value.
35% equity but only putting in 25% of the money.
You want sb to 3bet and hopefully everyone else comes along for the ride, which seems likely because CO looks loose enough and BB already called 2 pflop, and I doubt he folds for another 2 after putting 1 in on the flop when SB 3bets.
Is there another reason why this would be a close decision?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a good chance that at least one player folds (likely CO) so you end up putting in 33% of the money. Still worth it for position though imho.