View Full Version : I'm the Villain.
Borodog
10-21-2005, 12:48 AM
Live $5-$10 game, 9 handed. I open raise from middle position. Folds to BB, a tight, aggressive, but fairly straightforward player who 3 bets me. I call.
The flop is A /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.
BB bets, I raise, BB 3 bets, I call.
Turn is the 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
BB bets, I call.
River is 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.
BB bets, I raise. BB mucks A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif face up.
What is my hand?
WillyTrailer
10-21-2005, 01:00 AM
umm...you could have a lot of things
But this is a pretty sweet play if you have the Ace of spades along with the King of whatever.
-WT
Borodog
10-21-2005, 01:03 AM
[ QUOTE ]
umm...you could have a lot of things
But this is a pretty sweet play if you have the Ace of spades along with the King of whatever.
-WT
[/ QUOTE ]
Well, I was hoping for more a range of hands you'd put me on than a guessing game for my exact hand. Also, what do you think of the BB's fold on the river?
I reread the post, and I noticed one thing. Bad table selection!
Borodog
10-21-2005, 02:00 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I reread the post, and I noticed one thing. Bad table selection!
[/ QUOTE ]
Heh. I play live in North Carolina. There's not a lot of tables to choose from. /images/graemlins/wink.gif
Harv72b
10-21-2005, 02:00 AM
Range of hands:
AA
2 Broadway suited to spades
Meh...that's probably it. Maybe A/images/graemlins/spade.gifKx/Qx if you were feeling frisky. I don't think you raise the river with anything less, and I don't think you slowplay a smaller set on this board.
Borodog
10-21-2005, 02:10 AM
You got me. I had A /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif.
Because this player was very tight and straightforward, and knows I'm tight, I knew his 3 bet on the flop meant AK (the only time he's tricky is when he has a monster; since he 3-bet the flop he doesn't have AA). I peeled one card to spike my queen with the intention of folding the turn UI.
But then it occured to me that the last N times I could remember making a flush on the river, this dude hadn't paid me off. He was priding himself on making "good folds" against me. So I drew to the flush.
I didn't show.
Harv72b
10-21-2005, 02:12 AM
[ QUOTE ]
But then it occured to me that the last N times I could remember making a flush on the river, this dude hadn't paid me off. He was priding himself on making "good folds" against me. So I drew to the flush.
[/ QUOTE ]
Play the player. Ni han, sir!
newhizzle
10-21-2005, 02:14 AM
with this read, i like it
edit: hero is going to regret showing you that laydown, im sure
Felipe
10-21-2005, 02:15 AM
[ QUOTE ]
You got me. I had A /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif.
Because this player was very tight and straightforward, and knows I'm tight, I knew his 3 bet on the flop meant AK (the only time he's tricky is when he has a monster; since he 3-bet the flop he doesn't have AA). I peeled one card to spike my queen with the intention of folding the turn UI.
But then it occured to me that the last N times I could remember making a flush on the river, this dude hadn't paid me off. He was priding himself on making "good folds" against me. So I drew to the flush.
I didn't show.
[/ QUOTE ]
wow! good read! How many times have you played with him to know him that well?
Borodog
10-21-2005, 02:19 AM
[ QUOTE ]
wow! good read! How many times have you played with him to know him that well?
[/ QUOTE ]
Probably at least 20 sessions, but I'm not sure exactly how many.
Jake (The Snake)
10-21-2005, 02:40 AM
I think both of you played the hand poorly, sorry.
You need to have played with this guy a ridiculous number of times to make this play, and even then it's probably wrong imo. It's not really fair to make judgements about live reads, but I suspect you are overthinking the situation and this is just fps.
Btw, why does he have to have AK on the flop? Why can't he have other aces?
His fold of AK is absolutely terrible too.
newhizzle
10-21-2005, 03:06 AM
villain is calling anyway so hes only investing one more bet, you dont think with this specific read this play will work more than 1 in 9 times?
also if he does call, hell probly start paying off your flushes in the future
shant
10-21-2005, 04:29 AM
I haven't read the thread yet, but I hate that guy's fold and I especially hate it face up.
private joker
10-21-2005, 04:48 AM
I don't like the guy's fold either. Heads-up in a decent sized pot with TPTK is a showdown hand, I don't care what. Oooh, 3 spades on the board! B.S.
If he was so scared of a better hand out there that he didn't want to put 2BBs in on the river, then he should check-call to hopefully induce a bluff from you. If he had checked, are you betting, Borodog?
Borodog
10-21-2005, 01:16 PM
[ QUOTE ]
You need to have played with this guy a ridiculous number of times to make this play, and even then it's probably wrong imo.
[/ QUOTE ]
Well, I guesstimate that I had something around 3000 hands with him live. I felt confident that if a spade came he would lay down a significant fraction of the time, which is all I need for the play to be profitable.
[ QUOTE ]
It's not really fair to make judgements about live reads, but I suspect you are overthinking the situation and this is just fps.
[/ QUOTE ]
That is always possible. It's one of the reasons I posted the hand. It's great that it worked and all, but did I get lucky? I'm not sure. I trusted my read and went with it though.
[ QUOTE ]
Btw, why does he have to have AK on the flop? Why can't he have other aces?
[/ QUOTE ]
He can't have other aces because he doesn't 3 bet me preflop with anything less than AK and JJ+, and has never 3 bet me on the flop with less than top kicker.
[ QUOTE ]
His fold of AK is absolutely terrible too.
[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. But he's very weak tight, or else I wouldn't have tried to make the play. He makes terrible folds all the time, particularly against me, because he knows if I'm betting or raising I'm usually winning. As I said, he prides himself on making these folds. He thinks they're the mark of an "expert player." He doesn't realize usually winning still means he only has to be good a small fraction of the time to make calling profitable.
I will say he is the only player at the table I would make this play against, and also that I have made reads at the game that have proved costly because the opponent I put in a little box had evolved and improved his game out of that box. That may be an argument for not trying this sort of play.
Borodog
10-21-2005, 01:20 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the guy's fold either. Heads-up in a decent sized pot with TPTK is a showdown hand, I don't care what. Oooh, 3 spades on the board! B.S.
[/ QUOTE ]
Yep. I agree.
[ QUOTE ]
If he was so scared of a better hand out there that he didn't want to put 2BBs in on the river, then he should check-call to hopefully induce a bluff from you. If he had checked, are you betting, Borodog?
[/ QUOTE ]
Hell no. I also don't bet the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif, since I don't believe he could laydown top two, even if he "knew" he was beat.
And I do like newhizzle's point that even had he called me, he'd likely start paying off my flushes. That's worth 2 bets right there I think.
AaronS
10-21-2005, 02:41 PM
I think this is an interesting way to think about it... What percentage of the time will he lay down when the flush comes? Multiply that by 9 bluff outs (cause you said you wouldn't make this move if the K came) and add that to the 2 non spade Q outs. Then you would need to make an adjustment b/c when the spade comes but he still calls the river, you lose an additional 2 bets...
For example, say he will fold 50% of the time the spade comes. The pot is 7 bets to you on the turn.
2 out of 46 times you make 2 pair and win 9 BB
35 out of 46 times a blank falls and you lose 1 BB
9 out of 46 times a spade comes
out of those, 4.5 times you win 8 BB
4.5 times you lose 3 BB
I think that works out to + .11 BB EV
But of course you can't put him 100% on AK
Jake (The Snake)
10-21-2005, 02:48 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I felt confident that if a spade came he would lay down a significant fraction of the time, which is all I need for the play to be profitable.
[/ QUOTE ]
Remember that you have to hit a flush card or queen on the river as well, so the fraction is bigger. This is assuming you are behind.
not bad. I would have put you on Kx /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Borodog
10-21-2005, 02:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I felt confident that if a spade came he would lay down a significant fraction of the time, which is all I need for the play to be profitable.
[/ QUOTE ]
Remember that you have to hit a flush card or queen on the river as well, so the fraction is bigger. This is assuming you are behind.
[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. By "significant fraction of the time" I mean that this is one of those few times where having played against someone for thousands of hands, I was confident he would fold if a spade came and I raised. I won't make up some percentage, but I felt it was much more likely than not.
I was thinking about this hand some more last night after posting it, and it occured to me that if he had made his foolish face up fold the LAST time this situation came up, where I actually had a flush and he didn't pay me off, I don't think I try to make this play. Does that sound contradictory? My thinking is that it might occur to him that he had previously shown me that he would fold TPTK heads up on the river for 1 more bet. That might encourage me to take a shot at him, so he should probably call.
Harv72b
10-21-2005, 02:58 PM
I think that plays like this are exactly why you take the time to develop reads. Not to say that I'd try this often, but I think it's absolutely worth a shot in this particular, rare scenario.
As ne says, if Hero does get called and loses to the AK, if nothing else this makes it more likely that he'll get paid off by this particular (regular) player in the future. So even if this is a -EV play on this particular hand, I think it has a positive expectancy over the long run.
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