A hand in which I am Sneaky [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Lmn55d

10-20-2005, 06:33 PM

Villain is 22/15 with AF 3.1/2/1.6 over 700 hands. I usually cap preflop but decided to switch it up here in position against a TAG, yes I cap with tons of non big pair hands blah blah blah. Flop I thought calling his 3bet and raising the turn would be obvious, capping less so. SO now he bets into me when the 3 pairs! Muy interesante, si? This looks like a bet/fold to me. Either that or he has like AT, but I have AA so hmm. I think he'll value bet the river putting me on some other pocket pair if he has KK/QQ or whatever so I call and raise the river. Yes?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, SB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

scotty34

10-20-2005, 06:35 PM

I usually don't agree with really strange lines, but this looks pretty good to me. What are you going to do if he 3-bets the river?

Lmn55d

10-20-2005, 06:37 PM

Shed tears, mutter about how its +EV to fold, and call.

Rubeskies

10-20-2005, 06:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Shed tears, mutter about how its +EV to fold, and call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perfect

Drontier

10-20-2005, 06:50 PM

I've been looking for more places to work this into my game as well. I rarely follow through as I think Ill just put myself in a shitload of trouble if i get 3 bet. NH.

bugstud

10-20-2005, 06:53 PM

I really like the lien

Subfallen

10-20-2005, 07:12 PM

The turn isn't likely to be a bet-fold at all. No decent player randomly bets into this 7.5BB pot intending to fold for one more getting 10.5:1. (Clearly he'd rather check-and-call with any hand that has half a chance at either being best or improving to the best hand.)

Anyways, notice that there are only 2 combinations of hands that beat you: A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and T/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif. You beat 18 combos of overpairs. So you're 9:1 to be ahead here (probably even more because he won't usually 3-bet the flop with quads.)

So if there's any reasonable chance he'll 3-bet you on the turn with a worse hand, I think it's more profitable to go ahead and raise the turn and call down any re-raises.

Danenania

10-20-2005, 07:18 PM

I agree with raising the turn. He's not folding an overpair and you guard against him randomly wussing out on rivers (as players with his stats will do on occasion). Also as Subfallen mentions you may get 3-bet by a worse hand, something that becomes much less likely when you raise the river.

Lmn55d

10-20-2005, 07:37 PM

You raise some good points. A small correction though: There are 4 combos of AT and 1 of TT. Furthermore, it is possible that he 3bet me with KTs or even KT. At the time I thought he might be bet/folding some hands, but now that I think about it, I'm not sure how likely that is.

EDIT: I just realized you specified ATs. I 3bet with ATo from sb here, so I figure he likely would too.

Lmn55d

10-20-2005, 07:45 PM

how often do we really expect to get 3bet by a worse hand though? Him betting into me on the turn is very ballsy if he doesn't have a T, but 3betting would seem maniacal against most players. I think the key factor here is how often he is bet/folding on the turn.

bobbyi

10-20-2005, 07:57 PM

Heads up with position like this, I don't cap here 100% of the time preflop. As long as you aren't doing it routinely, your preflop play is fine.

I would strongly consider just calling the flop three-bet with the intention of popping the turn. He led out again here, but often with JJ (for example), he will lead the turn and call down when raised if you don't cap the flop, but if you cap he will back off and check/call down.

cartman

10-20-2005, 07:58 PM

In my opinion the main problem is that he knows that you may very well have a T. Unless he is certain that you would never cap the flop if you did in fact have a T, then his turn lead is a very strong message that he likes his hand a lot! I think there is virtually no chance he is bet-folding the turn. In my opinion the best possible scenario is that he has a lower pocket pair. Although that is certainly not unlikely, I would think he has a T often enough here that I would just call down and bet if checked to once he leads the turn.

Is this too weak?

Thanks,
Cartman