AK Vs Flush board. [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

POKhER

10-20-2005, 05:53 PM

villan = 54/.45/.84

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds.

River: (6.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
SB bets, Hero?

turn/river please.

shadow29

10-20-2005, 05:59 PM

Fold?

10-20-2005, 06:00 PM

call and hope he's betting the board.
turn...I probably would have checked

shadow29

10-20-2005, 06:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
call and hope he's betting the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like to "hope" in small pots, especially since we're "hoping" for 1/2 of the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
turn...I probably would have checked

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

Shillx

10-20-2005, 06:07 PM

Why would you bet the turn here... /images/graemlins/confused.gif

shadow29

10-20-2005, 06:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you bet the turn here... /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

b/c you have 2 pair, an easy fold to a c/r, and a chance for a free showdown?

edit- I expect to win the pot on the turn when I bet >1/4 times.

Shillx

10-20-2005, 06:14 PM

I expect to win the pot on the turn when I bet >1/4 times.

This means he has nothing and will either bluff the river or check it to you. Let him throw his $$ away on the end. We also give up a 9% chance to outdraw him those times that we have to fold to a check/raise. The only downside to checking is that it will cost us half the pot those times that the river is the 5th /images/graemlins/heart.gif (and we are ahead now). Since the pot is small I don't care about that very much.

shadow29

10-20-2005, 06:16 PM

So you're calling, but not overcalling a bet on a 5th /images/graemlins/heart.gif on the River if we check the Turn?

I think that you're right in your analysis.

Jingleheimer

10-20-2005, 06:22 PM

SB and BB together are almost 2:1 not to have any hearts. That both called on the flop should change those probabilities somewhat. Not sure if it makes it worse than 4:1. But if they don't have hearts, they're not calling. If they do, you're wasting your bet except if you can fold out a small heart and the other guy has none. Tough to check-fold top two on the river, but it really looks like SB has a high /images/graemlins/heart.gif and doesn't want the river to check through.

J

Shillx

10-20-2005, 06:24 PM

Well my post was actually designed for those times that you are HU. I forgot about the 3rd person on the turn, but his presence doesn't exactly make me feel plucky when the 4th /images/graemlins/heart.gif comes. The only reason to bet would be if we thought that the 1st player would call with garbage and that would make the 2nd player fold the best hand. It takes an awesome read to make this kind of play though and we don't have it.

Brad

Shillx

10-20-2005, 06:33 PM

SB and BB together are almost 2:1 not to have any hearts.

Huh? It is 3:2 that there is a /images/graemlins/heart.gif out there if they have random cards. In reality it will be > 60% that a /images/graemlins/heart.gif is out there. Notice that it is correct for them to check and call on 4th without the Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif (assuming that they have a flush).

Jingleheimer

10-20-2005, 06:47 PM

Yeah you're right- 63:37 one of them will have a heart. I goofed and said 37:63. My bad.

POKhER

10-20-2005, 06:59 PM

Aimed at no one - So quoting myself.

yeh the turn play is what i question, i folded the river as i figure he was playing the board... but any heart beats me anyhow(2/images/graemlins/heart.gif on board).

Anyhow, the turn play was a tough spot... i thought about free SD but these guys had been folding the turn alot and i seemed to have fair bit of respect at the table for taking down few pots.

Anyhow unfortunatly they didnt fold and i folded to his donk bet on river.

How did you figure the chances they held flush? im sure i calcualted it whilst playing but my brains gone to mush and its late. time to log off.

Shillx

10-20-2005, 07:05 PM

There are 46 unseen cards. 37 of them are not /images/graemlins/heart.gif's.

P(no heart) = 37*36*35*34 / 46*45*44*43 = .404 = ~ 40%

10-20-2005, 07:55 PM

It is correct to use the hypergeometric distribution in this finite population of 52 cards to calculate the probabilites. Assuming BB's folded hand on the turn contained no hearts we have a total unseen population of 43 cards (N=52-5-2-2=43) of which there are 9 (X=13-5=9) unseen hearts. Villian had 2 chances (n=2) to catch 1 or 2 hearts (x=0,1,or 2) preflop so the probability he holds:

0 heart = 62.1%
1 heart = 33.9%
2 hearts = 4.0%.